* = qualified to the Round of 32
Only six spots out of 24 left up for grabs. Do we have the EL SophCon
master sheet so I can look at scenarios?
* = qualified to the Round of 32
Only six spots out of 24 left up for grabs. Do we have the EL SophCon
master sheet so I can look at scenarios?
--
Group A
1 Roma 4-1-0 12-2 13*
2 Young Boys 2-1-1 7-6 7
3 Cluj 1-2-2 3-8 5
4 CSKA-Sofia 0-2-3 0-6 2
YB host Cluj in Switzerland for a place in the round of 32.
--
Group B
1 Arsenal 5-0-0 16-3 15*
2 Molde 3-0-2 7-9 9
3 Rapid 2-0-3 9-11 6
4 Dundalk 0-0-5 6-15 0
Rapid host Molde on the last matchday. As they lost the first game in
Norway 0-1, any win but 2-1, 3-2 etc. would see the Austrians through.
--
Group C
1 Slavia Praha 4-0-1 11-5 12*
2 Leverkusen 4-0-1 17-8 12*
3 Nice 1-0-4 7-15 3
4 Hapoel Be'er-Sheva 1-0-4 6-13 3
Leverkusen need a win at home against Slavia to win the group.
--
Group D
1 Rangers 3-2-0 11-7 11*
2 Benfica 3-2-0 16-7 11*
3 Lech Pozna+a 1-0-4 6-12 3
4 Standard Li|?ge 1-0-4 5-12 3
Rangers win the group in Poland if they match Benfica's result away in Belgium.
--
Group E
1 Granada 3-1-1 6-3 10*
2 PSV 3-0-2 8-9 9*
3 PAOK 1-2-2 8-7 5
4 Omonoia 1-1-3 5-8 1
PAOK blew it today on Cyprus. Granada group winners if they win in Greece
or if PSV don't win at home against Omonoia.
--
Group F
1 Napoli 3-1-1 6-3 10
2 Real Sociedad 2-2-1 4-3 8
3 AZ 2-2-1 6-3 8
4 Rijeka 0-1-4 4-11 1
The only group where no team has qualified yet. Napoli host Real Sociedad
on the last matchday and the Basques need a win if AZ beat Rijeka away. On >the other hand, a draw in Croatia would only be enough for AZ if Napoli win. >Napoli themselves most likely can't afford to lose.
--
Group G
1 Leicester 3-1-1 12-5 10*
2 Braga 3-1-1 12-10 10*
3 Zorya Luhansk 2-0-3 6-9 6
4 AEK 1-0-4 7-13 3
Leicester win the head to head over Braga, so they are group winners with a >home win against AEK.
--
Group H
1 Lille 3-2-0 12-5 11*
2 Milan 3-1-1 11-7 10*
3 Sparta Praha 2-0-3 10-11 6
4 Celtic 0-1-4 7-17 1
Lille play away in Glasgow and Milan in Prague to decide the group winner.
--
Group I
1 Villarreal 4-1-0 14-5 13*
2 Maccabi Tel-Aviv 2-2-1 5-7 8
3 Sivasspor 2-0-3 9-10 6
4 Qaraba-f 0-1-4 4-10 1
Maccabi host Sivasspor in a last-round final.
--
Group J
1 Royal Antwerp 4-0-1 8-3 12*
2 Tottenham 3-1-1 13-5 10*
3 LASK 2-1-2 8-11 7
4 Ludogorets Razgrad 0-0-4 6-16 0
Tottenham can still be group winners as they host Royal on the last matchday.
--
Group K
1 Dinamo Zagreb 3-2-0 6-0 11*
2 WAC 2-1-2 6-6 7
3 Feyenoord 1-2-2 4-7 5
4 CSKA Moskva 0-3-2 2-5 3
Dinamo could become the first club ever to finish a European group phase
with no goals conceded (if you count neither the weird 4-match UEFA Cup
group stages in the 2000's, nor the Intertoto).
Wolfsberg will have a final in Klagenfurt and only need a draw against >Feyenoord for a historic qualification to the knock-out rounds. They have >hugely impressed me and showcase what's possible for smaller Austrian clubs.
--
Group L
1 Hoffenheim 4-1-0 13-1 13*
2 Crvena Zvezda 3-1-1 9-4 10*
3 Slovan Liberec 2-0-3 4-13 6
4 Gent 0-0-5 2-9 0
Everything's decided here. Terrible campaign by Gent who started the
season in the CL qualifiers.
--
Top Scorers:
Yusuf Yaz-#c-# (TUR/Lille) 6
Mikael Ishak (SWE/Lech Pozna+a) 5
Luk|i+i Juli+i (CZE/Sparta Praha) 5
Darwin N|||#ez (URU/Benfica) 5
Pizzi (POR/Benfica) 5
--
Current UEFA ranking (incl. bonus points due to mathematically achieved >qualification to the CL Round of 16)
Season 2020/21
1 England 13.071 (7/7 still in Europe)
2 Spain 11.357 (7/7)
3 Germany 10.642 (6/7)
4 Italy 10.428 (7/7)
5 Portugal 7.400 (3/5)
6 Netherlands 6.400 (4/5)
7 Scotland 6.250 (2/4)
8 Israel 6.000 (2/4)
9 Austria 5.700 (4/5)
10 France 5.583 (5/6)
The top 4 on pretty much the same point total as at exactly the same time >last season (Italy and England have improved by two points). Bad seasons
for France and especially Russia (4.166, 17th place).
Total
------------ (7 teams in Europe / 4 CL group spots / 2 EL group spots)
1 Spain 89.712 (7/7)
2 England 89.283 (7/7)
3 Italy 69.581 (7/7)
4 Germany 68.998 (6/7)
------------ (6 teams in Europe / 2 CL group spots / 2 EL group spots)
5 France 53.748 (5/6)
------------ (6 teams in Europe / 2 CL group spots / 1 EL group spot)
6 Portugal 46.349 (3/5)
------------ (5 teams in Europe / 1 CL group spot)
7 Russia 38.215 (4/6)
8 Netherlands 36.400 (4/5)
9 Belgium 35.900 (4/5)
10 Austria 34.825 (4/5)
------------ (5 teams in Europe - 2 CLQ, 1 ELQ, 2 ECLQ)
11 Scotland 31.125 (2/4)
12 Ukraine 31.100 (3/5)
13 Turkey 30.100 (2/5)
14 Cyprus 27.750 (1/4)
15 Denmark 27.625 (1/4)
------------ (4 teams in Europe - 1 CLQ, 0 ELQ, 3 ECLQ)
16 Serbia 26.000 (1/4)
17 Greece 25.000 (3/5)
18 Czech Republic 24.800 (3/5)
19 Switzerland 24.725 (1/4)
20 Croatia 24.075 (2/5)
21 Israel 23.375 (2/4)
22 Sweden 20.500 (0/4)
23 Bulgaria 19.875 (2/4)
24 Norway 19.500 (1/4)
25 Romania 18.200 (1/4)
The changes in the Top 15 since the beginning of the group stages were: >Netherlands overtook Belgium
Scotland overtook Turkey and Ukraine
Cyprus overtook Denmark
Serbia still with an outside chance at stealing 15th place from Denmark,
but they need at least three more wins and a draw by Red Star.
Russia's third bad season in a row means that they have been dragged
down into the fight for the top 10 (it will be more pronounced next
season), and it
will almost certainly spell the end of Zenit in Pot 1 of the Champions >League. As it appears now, Ajax will probably take that place in two years' >time.
--
Ciao,
Werner
On Thursday, December 3, 2020 at 5:47:19 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
* = qualified to the Round of 32
Only six spots out of 24 left up for grabs. Do we have the EL SophCon master sheet so I can look at scenarios?
Here (at the bottom of the post) https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2020/10/15/european-cups-2020-2021-group-stage-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
On Friday, December 4, 2020 at 12:46:31 AM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
On Thursday, December 3, 2020 at 5:47:19 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
* = qualified to the Round of 32
Only six spots out of 24 left up for grabs. Do we have the EL SophCon master sheet so I can look at scenarios?
Here (at the bottom of the post) https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2020/10/15/european-cups-2020-2021-group-stage-sophisticated-prediction-contest/Thanks!
Quick and dirty, so probably not error-free, but it appears we can have five possible winners:
Two ClubElo variations as favourites:
Lorenzo Carli / ClubElo (wins in 24 out of 48 possible scenarios)
ClubElo by Futbolmetrix (wins in 9 cases)
And three human underdogs:
Futbolmetrix (7 scenarios)
MH (5)
Jesper (3)
Best possible winning score: -17,927: YB, Rapid, Maccabi, Feyenoord, Napoli/Sociedad (Lorenzo Carli/ClubElo)
Worst possible winning score: -24,722: Cluj, Molde, Sivasspor, Wolfsberg, AZ/Napoli (ClubElo by Futbolmetrix)
Jesper wins if AZ crash out, Sivasspor win in Israel, Feyenoord overcome Wolfsberg and one of Cluj or Molde fails.
MH needs Sivasspor and Molde in any case, and AZ to qualify.
Daniele needs YB and Sivasspor.
https://www.file-upload.net/download-14386140/SPC_EL2020-21_GroupStage_Scenarios.xls.html
EL Top Scorers:Pizzi (POR/Benfica) 6
Current UEFA ranking1 England 14.500 (7/7 still in Europe)
Season 2020/21
Total
So the expected result and Lorenzo Carli / ClubElo should take the win. Daniele came closest but, all else being
equal, ironically would have needed Sivasspor to prevail over Maccabi Tel-Aviv.
On Thursday, December 3, 2020 at 11:47:19 PM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
Updates after the end of the group stages:
EL Top Scorers:
Pizzi (POR/Benfica) 6
Season 2020/21
1 England 14.500 (7/7 still in Europe)
2 Spain 13.928 (7/7)
3 Germany 13.500 (6/7)
4 Italy 13.142 (6/7)
5 Portugal 8.400 (3/5)
6 Scotland 7.250 (1/4)
7 Israel 7.000 (1/4)
The gap between the top 4 and the rest opens ever wider.
Sysop: | Nitro |
---|---|
Location: | Portland, OR |
Users: | 7 |
Nodes: | 10 (0 / 10) |
Uptime: | 36:24:10 |
Calls: | 158 |
Files: | 754 |
Messages: | 90,022 |