Mesoscale Discussion 2146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Areas affected...portions of southern Coastal California
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622...
Valid 141242Z - 141415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622
continues.
SUMMARY...A damaging gust may occur this morning.
DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough and an associated 80+ kt
mid-level jet streak is currently overspreading the LA Basin, with
60 F surface dewpoints impinging on the shoreline. Intense dynamic
forcing currently supports a strong vertical wind field and
accompanying shear profile over southern CA, where a low-topped
confluence band is currently progressing. Some of the stronger
showers in the region have supported damaging gusts over the past
couple of hours, including a measured severe gust and wind damage
report in Ventura/Los Angeles counties. The current thinking is that
the potential for an additional damaging or perhaps severe gust will
remain in place through the morning hours as the low-topped
convective band continues to take advantage of scant buoyancy in the
region.