AWUS01 KWNH 101925
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-110124-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0896
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101924Z - 110124Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms in the mountains of central CO
are about to emerge into the High Plains. Hourly amounts to 2.5"
with local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to
scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been forming within an
environment with parallel low-level cloud bands across the
mountains of central CO. The upper level pattern is diffluent
ahead of a shortwave seen on water vapor imagery near the UT/CO/WY
border junction. Several overshooting cloud tops have been seen
on recent satellite imagery as the storms push towards the High
Plains. Upslope flow is strongest across northeast CO behind a
fine line/leading edge of expanding cumuliform clouds seen in
satellite imagery. Precipitable water values in the High Plains
are 1"+. ML CAPE is 1000-2500 J/kg, and increasing, while CIN
erodes regionally. Effective bulk shear is 35-40 kts.

Guidance indicates that thunderstorms should increase in coverage, organization, and intensity over the next several hours. While
the mean 850-400 hPa flow favors east-northeast movement, ML CAPE
gradients in the region would favor a more east to east-southeast
movement, which is more reflective of what's advertised within
mesoscale guidance. The concern is that a combination of
mesocyclones and merging convective clusters over could lead to
hourly rains as high as 2.5" and local totals to 4" as
precipitable water values pass 1.25" locally, which is exceedingly
high for any time of the year for the High Plains of CO. Pockets
of eastern CO have seen much above average rainfall this past
week, making the region sensitive, in spots. Urban areas would
also see problems should the higher end rainfall intensities move
through them. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41700553 41400346 40310142 37810172 36910265
36990529 37340612 38280630 39250565 40630600
41490619

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