ACUS03 KWNS 010713
SWODY3
SPC AC 010712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains.

...High Plains...
At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the
High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the
Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place
across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in
the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop
along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating
takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas
where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability
axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep
low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated
severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These
storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough
exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any
severe threat localized.

..Broyles.. 08/01/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 140724
SWODY3
SPC AC 140723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic strong storms are possible Saturday from the Black Hills
eastward to Wisconsin.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper ridge will remain over the Plains on Saturday, with the
upper high centered over MO. Low-level moisture will remain abundant
over much of the Plains and MS Valley, with southerly winds along
and south of an east-west oriented front. This front will stretch
roughly from SD to WI, and provide a focus for bouts of
thunderstorms through the period.

Areas of storms may be ongoing Saturday morning from SD into WI,
where warm southwest winds will continually impinge upon the frontal
zone. Some of this activity could produce sporadic strong gusts.

Later in the day, further destabilization could result in a renewal
of storms from central MN into WI. While moderately unstable,
deep-layer shear will be modest, with somewhat disorganized storm
modes possible. Predictability is too low to denote the exact
corridor for isolated severe at this time.

Farther west, afternoon storms will be possible over the Black Hills
and surrounding areas, especially late in the day and into the
evening. Some of this initial activity could produce localized hail
or strong gusts. Low-level winds will be weak, with little overall
focus. As such, will defer possible low probabilities to later
updates.

..Jewell.. 08/14/2025

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