Mesoscale Discussion 1821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
Areas affected...parts of western/central ND
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 281221Z - 281415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A persistent supercell or two may yield a confined swath
of large hail and strong gusts into late morning. Monitoring for
possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...A couple elevated supercells are ongoing across southwest/west-central ND, along and just north of I-94. Despite a
lack of reported severe thus far, strong westerly speed shear above
3 km (now sampled by the BIS VWP and 12Z observed sounding) has
sustained persistent organizational structures as these cells spread
across the MT/ND border. This elevated activity is likely to persist
into midday along the buoyancy gradient across western ND. Large
hail and strong gusts should be the primary hazards. Severe wind may
increase if flanking convection can form along the outflow into a
destabilizing airmass over SD. But ongoing low clouds/fog in the
swath of richest low-level moisture casts uncertainty on whether
that scenario may occur soon or later today.