-
DAY1 2/5 Risk Areas Poste
From
Mike Powell@618:250/1 to
All on Thu Jul 17 08:52:26 2025
ACUS01 KWNS 171237
SWODY1
SPC AC 171235
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
northern New England this afternoon. Isolated/sporadic damaging
winds may also occur across a broad swath of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic to the southern High Plains. A confined
corridor of large hail and severe gusts appears possible from
north-central Montana to southwest North Dakota this evening.
...Northeast...
The Slight Risk has been maintained across this region with no
changes. A shortwave trough will move northeastward from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Ontario/Quebec border vicinity by this evening. A
broad swath of enhanced 850-700 mb west-southwesterly winds is
forecast from PA/NJ northward into New England. Further weakening of
already poor mid-level lapse rates is anticipated across parts of
southern NY into southern New England. This may tend to limit
convective coverage across the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New
England vicinity. But, farther north and in closer proximity to
ascent associated with the approaching mid-level shortwave trough,
scattered robust convection is anticipated this afternoon along the
Quebec border across northern New England. Sufficient instability
and deep-layer shear are forecast across this region to support a
mix of multicells and perhaps marginal supercells. Given the
enhanced low/mid-level flow, scattered damaging winds should be the
main threat with this activity as it moves generally
east-northeastward through the early evening, before eventually
weakening as it approaches the coast. Enough low-level hodograph enlargement/curvature may also be present to support some risk for a
tornado or two.
...Mid-Atlantic to the Southern High Plains...
Extensive convection is ongoing this morning across
south-central/southeast KS into MO. This activity should generally
remain sub-severe, but it will help reinforce a front that is
expected to gradually sag southward and eventually stall across the
mid MS Valley to southern Plains today. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the Appalachians along
this boundary later this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs.
Moderate to strong instability amid steepened low-level rates
along/south of the outflow/front should support sporadic wet
microbursts. Isolated hail will be possible with thunderstorms in
the post-frontal upslope flow regime across parts of the southern
High Plains. But, modest deep-layer shear and warm temperatures
aloft across all these regions should temper the overall
intensity/coverage of severe convection. Isolated damaging winds may
also occur with thunderstorms that develop east of the central
Appalachians this afternoon, even though coverage should be somewhat less.
...Northern Plains...
A narrow corridor of supercell potential remains evident across
north-central MT to southwest ND, mainly this evening. A positively
tilted mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies
will progress eastward along the international border with MT/ND
today. Mid to late afternoon convective initiation should occur over
parts of southwest Alberta in association with this feature. A
confined plume of weak buoyancy ahead of this activity should
initially temper updraft intensity as it spreads east-southeastward
into north-central MT by late afternoon. But, favorably timed
strengthening of a 500-mb westerly jet over MT will aid in hodograph
elongation at mid/upper levels this evening. This could support a
long-lived supercell or two during the evening, impinging on the
nose of moderate instability that should be present across southeast
MT. Large hail should be the main threat with these supercells if
they can be maintained. An isolated hail/wind risk may persist along
the ND/SD border vicinity overnight.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/17/2025
$$
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From
Mike Powell@618:250/1 to
All on Fri Jul 18 09:58:14 2025
ACUS01 KWNS 181244
SWODY1
SPC AC 181243
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa,
Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota this evening into tonight.
Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of Virginia and
North Carolina this afternoon.
...Virginia/North Carolina to the Mid-South...
A generally west-east oriented quasi-stationary front reinforced by
outflow from earlier convection should serve as a low-level forcing
mechanism for thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of
VA/NC westward to the Mid-South and vicinity. A seasonably moist
airmass will be present today along/south of this front, with
surface dewpoints generally ranging from the upper 60s in higher
elevations to mid 70s elsewhere. Even though mid-level lapse rates
are expected to remain rather modest, ample daytime heating of the
moist low-level airmass will contribute to sizable MLCAPE by early
to mid afternoon. With a subtropical anticyclone centered off the
Southeast Atlantic Coast and stronger flow aloft associated with
various mid-level perturbations expected to remain over the Great Lakes/Northeast, large-scale ascent in the vicinity of the surface
front will be nebulous at best.
Regardless, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop
along/near this boundary through the afternoon, while spreading
generally eastward this evening. With modest mid-level westerly flow
forecast, deep-layer shear appears marginal for thunderstorm
organization. The greatest threat for scattered damaging winds
should focus across parts of VA/NC this afternoon and early evening,
where semi-organized clusters and short line segments appear
possible given slightly stronger deep-layer shear. Otherwise,
isolated damaging winds may occur even with less organized
convection farther west towards parts of the TN Valley/Mid-South, as
steepened low-level lapse rates potentially support microbursts.
There does appear to be a gap in scattered convective coverage
across parts of MO and vicinity, where the Marginal Risk has been
removed with this update.
...South Dakota/Nebraska into Minnesota/Iowa...
Elevated convection across parts of SD may continue to pose an
isolated hail threat this morning, before it eventually weakens with
the gradual lessening of a southerly low-level jet. A belt of strong
westerly mid-level flow will remain in place over the northern tier
of the CONUS from MT eastward towards the Great Lakes. Gradual
low-level moistening is forecast through this evening ahead of a
weak front forecast to be in place over the eastern Dakotas into
western NE. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates will contribute to moderate to strong MLCAPE across parts of
NE/southeast SD into IA. But, nebulous forcing for ascent and
residual capping should tend to suppress surface-based convective
development across these areas for much of the day. Occasional
severe hail may occur with mainly elevated convection to the north
of the front in MN.
A gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet this evening
(mainly after 00Z) should aid in convective initiation along/near
the front from central/northeast NE into southeast SD/southwest MN.
Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this region suggest ample
instability and strong deep-layer shear will be present to support
supercells with attendant large hail threat initially. Low-level
shear should also be strong enough for a tornado threat with these
supercells, although there may be a fairly narrow spatial/temporal
window for convection to remain discrete this evening. Upscale
growth into a bowing cluster should occur through mid to late
evening, with a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds as
this convection tracks into parts of IA overnight, before eventually
weakening early Saturday morning.
...Great Basin into Wyoming and Far Southern Montana...
Initially high-based convection should develop this afternoon across
parts of the Great Basin into WY as modest ascent associated with a weak/low-amplitude mid-level impulse spreads eastward across these
areas. While low-level moisture and deep-layer shear will remain
limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates amid a very well-mixed
boundary layer should support isolated severe gusts with any
thunderstorms that can be sustained amid weak instability. Somewhat
greater low-level moisture should be present this afternoon across
parts of southern MT into northern/eastern WY, generally along/east
of the Bighorn/Laramie Mountains. Isolated severe hail may occur
with marginal supercells given greater instability/shear forecast
across these areas.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/18/2025
$$
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From
Mike Powell@618:250/1 to
All on Sat Jul 19 09:08:50 2025
ACUS01 KWNS 191246
SWODY1
SPC AC 191245
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025
Valid 191300Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible today across parts of the
Midwest/Great Lakes and southern Mid-Atlantic. Scattered large to
very large hail and severe gusts are possible across the
northern/central Plains during the late afternoon and evening.
...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A small thunderstorm cluster ongoing this morning across
southern/eastern IA should continue to track east-southeastward
along an instability gradient across parts of northern MO, IL, and
perhaps IN into at least the early afternoon. With sufficient
organization and evidence of a cold pool, this cluster may pose a
threat for strong to locally damaging winds. Reference Mesoscale
Discussion 1719 for more details. The potential for additional
strong to severe thunderstorms across the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions remains somewhat unclear given rather nebulous/weak forcing
aloft. Stronger westerly mid-level flow associated with upper
troughing over eastern Canada should tend to remain mostly displaced
to the north of the surface warm sector. Still, daytime heating of a
moist low-level airmass will likely encourage the development of
moderate to locally strong instability by early to mid afternoon
away from convective influences.
Somewhat stronger flow aloft and related deep-layer shear should be
present this afternoon across Lower MI. A mix of multicells and
marginal supercells may spread eastward from ongoing activity across
WI, or develop separately over this area while posing a threat for
isolated severe hail and damaging winds. Farther south into the
Midwest/OH Valley, weaker deep-layer shear and the bulk of
convection-allowing model guidance suggests that multicell clusters
should be the main convective mode. One or more of these clusters
will probably persist from the ongoing activity this morning, or
develop this afternoon along its outflow. Scattered severe/damaging
winds will likely be the main threat as these thunderstorms move east-southeastward this afternoon into early evening across much of
the OH Valley/Midwest. This convection should eventually weaken this
evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass across the Lower
Great Lakes and central Appalachians.
...Virginia/North Carolina...
The Mid-Atlantic region will once again reside between upper
troughing to the north over the Northeast/eastern Canada, and a
mid/upper-level anticyclone anchored over the Southeast. The primary
synoptic front remains draped generally east-west along/near the
MD/PA/DE border. A very moist low-level airmass remains in place to
the south of this boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the
low to mid 70s. A similar convective scenario to yesterday is
forecast again today. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will
likely encourage moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by early
afternoon, even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain
poor. Around 15-25 kt of mid-level westerly flow should enable
thunderstorms that initially develop over the Appalachians/Blue
Ridge to advance eastward towards the lower elevations/coastal
regions of VA/NC this afternoon and early evening. Scattered
damaging winds should be the main threat with loosely organized multicells/clusters. Isolated hail may occur with the stronger cores as well.
...Northern/Central Plains...
An upper trough/low is expected to persist today over western
Canada. On the southern periphery of this feature, a weak mid-level
shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern
Rockies/High Plains through this evening. Weaker mid-level westerly
flow will remain farther south into the central High Plains. At the
surface, a lee trough will extend southward from eastern MT to
eastern CO. Generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should exist
this afternoon along/east of the lee trough, with greater low-level
moisture present near a remnant front/boundary in NE. Isolated
thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat
this morning. Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms
to develop initially over the higher terrain of the northern/central
Rockies this afternoon, with additional development farther east
along the lee trough.
As this convection spreads eastward into a moderately to strongly
unstable airmass across the northern/central High Plains, it should
strengthen. Weak low-level winds are forecast to veer and increase
with height through mid/upper levels, supporting strong deep-layer
shear and the potential for supercells. Scattered large hail will be
possible with any supercells that can persist, with most guidance
indicating a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms across
eastern MT into western ND, and separately across western/central
NE. Given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50+ kt
of deep-layer shear, isolated very large hail appears possible. If
one or more clusters can develop from the initial supercells, then a
greater threat for severe gusts would be realized this evening with
eastward extent across the northern/central Plains. There is low
confidence in this scenario occurring, however.
..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/19/2025
$$
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From
Mike Powell@618:250/1 to
All on Fri Jul 25 09:18:42 2025
ACUS01 KWNS 251255
SWODY1
SPC AC 251253
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid
Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across
much of North Dakota.
...Northeast States...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
progressing eastward across Ontario. The associated cold front will
move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward
across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions
ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA. These
storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early
evening. Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions
will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form.
...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY. Weak
lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid
in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon
across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY. Thermodynamic parameters
appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model
guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward.
However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity
will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally
damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will
hopefully help better focus this threat area.
...KS/MO...
A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a
convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS
this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of
the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening.
Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the
southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe
threat will likely develop. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be
the main concern.
..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025
$$
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From
Mike Powell@618:250/1 to
All on Thu Jul 31 09:26:06 2025
ACUS01 KWNS 311238
SWODY1
SPC AC 311236
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN
WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this
afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail
producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains.
...High Plains...
A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US,
with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal
moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of
afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells
will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain
before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast
soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical
shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient
for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and
damaging winds.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and
far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south
of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to
moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse
rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of
the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with
locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern.
...ID/Western MT...
A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV
lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the
trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon
across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be
capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025
$$
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From
Mike Powell@618:250/1 to
All on Thu Jul 31 17:44:16 2025
ACUS01 KWNS 311953
SWODY1
SPC AC 311951
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible this
afternoon and early evening across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other
severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains.
...20z Update...
The forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments
made based on recent convective trends. Low-end/5% risk
probabilities were expanded slightly across portions of the northern
Rockies where recent observed dewpoint depressions and short-range
forecast soundings show low-level thermodynamic environments
favorable for strong/severe downburst winds and GOES imagery shows
deepening convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See
the previous discussion below and MCDs #1853 and #1854 for
additional details.
..Moore.. 07/31/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/
...Mid Atlantic Region...
Midday visible-satellite imagery indicates a moist airmass via a
swelling cumulus field from the upper OH Valley eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic states and Long Island. Additional heating of an
extremely moist boundary layer (12 UTC raobs at IAD and WAL showing
17-18 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios), will result in
temperatures warming through the 80s deg F with 74-78 dewpoints to
the east of the Fall Line.
An upstream mid-level shortwave trough over WI/IL will continue to
progress eastward towards the region and promote the gradual
southward movement of a weak cold front. Despite weak mid-level
lapse rates, the aforementioned warming/destabilization through mid
afternoon will promote scattered thunderstorms along/ahead of
the front. Forecast hodographs will be elongated due to 50-70 kt
upper-level flow, which will support storm organization in the form
of multicell clusters and possibly a few weak supercell structures.
Weak low-level flow and a deep/moisture-rich profile will facilitate water-loaded downdrafts with the stronger cores. Widely scattered
50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary severe
concern before much of this activity moves east of the coast by mid evening.
...High Plains...
No change from the previous forecast thinking. Weak shortwave
ridging will reside across the central Rockies/plains northward into
the northern High Plains. Surface observations and satellite data
depict a seasonably moist airmass abutted to the Front Range and
northward into the eastern WY. Heating over the higher terrain and
along a residual frontal zone will aid in scattered storm
development this afternoon. The strongest cells will pose some risk
of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading
onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this
region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient
supercell structures. Upscale growth into a linear cluster or two
may evolve (supported by recent HREF guidance), and this appears
most probable near the WY/CO/NE border during the early evening. A
gradual transition from primarily a hail risk to a threat favoring
severe gusts may occur as outflow becomes more pervasive as storm
coverage and outflow increases during the evening.
...ID/Western MT...
A mid-level trough over northern NV will move slowly northward
through tonight into the northern Rockies. Forcing for ascent
attendant to this upper feature coupled with orographic circulations
will likely result in scattered storms developing by mid to late
afternoon. Very steep lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layers will
promote evaporative cooling and an isolated risk for severe gusts
(60-70 mph) with the stronger cores and outflow surges.
...AR/LA...
Scattered diurnally driven storms will likely evolve in the vicinity
of a weakness in the southern U.S. mid-level anticyclone. A very
moist boundary layer amid moderate buoyancy may result in a few
stronger water-loaded microbursts capable of 50-65 mph gusts and
pockets of wind damage.
$$
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From
Mike Powell@618:250/1 to
All on Sat Aug 9 09:09:14 2025
ACUS01 KWNS 091249
SWODY1
SPC AC 091248
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...AND EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple severe/damaging wind swaths should occur today centered on
parts of Iowa, northwest Illinois, Wisconsin, and the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan. Large to very large hail will be possible
across parts of eastern Colorado and vicinity this afternoon and evening.
...Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest into the Missouri Valley...
A small but intense bowing cluster has produced numerous severe
gusts/damage reports (some 75+ mph) in a narrow corridor early this
morning across south-central NE to western IA. This convection
should continue east-northeastward across parts of central/northern
IA through the rest of the morning, with an enhanced southwesterly
low-level jet providing ample moist inflow. A very unstable airmass
remains in place ahead of a cold front across this area, with MUCAPE
around 3000-3500 J/kg. This large reservoir of buoyancy should
continue to support a severe/damaging wind threat with this cluster
into parts of central/northern IA for at least the next few hours.
See Mesoscale Discussion 1911 for more details on the short-term
severe threat associated with this bowing complex.
Additional thunderstorms have developed along/near the cold front
across a broader portion of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.
It still appears probable that multiple swaths of severe/damaging
winds may occur through the afternoon and evening across parts of
these regions as the airmass ahead of these thunderstorms gradually destabilizes. With rich low-level moisture already in place, strong
to extreme instability should once again develop by this afternoon.
While stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will tend
to lag the cold front, they should still be sufficient to support
organized convection, mainly linear clusters. Some adjustments have
been made to the Slight Risk to account for the ongoing severe
thunderstorms in IA, as well as additional activity forecast to
occur through the afternoon and evening. The potential for
additional robust convective development tonight across parts of the
MO Valley remains unclear as a southerly low-level jet strengthens
once again. Regardless, have maintained severe probabilities across
southeast NE and vicinity for this possibility.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
A cold front should become nearly stationary by this afternoon
across the south-central High Plains. A favorable low-level,
post-frontal regime for severe convection is expected to develop
across eastern CO by late afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates, moderate instability, and favorable deep-layer shear
will likely support scattered supercells capable of large to very
large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two
mainly this afternoon into the evening. Across the southern High
Plains, high-based convection may again develop across parts of
eastern NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. This activity could pose a
isolated threat for severe gusts given a very well-mixed boundary layer.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/09/2025
$$
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