ACUS01 KWNS 091254
SWODY1
SPC AC 091253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early
evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail
and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the
northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic
through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the
Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again
expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians
and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the
coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture
will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations.

Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of
Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to
somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions.
Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete
convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the
primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially develop.

...Northern/central Plains...
Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an
upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues
to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by
late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should
be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the
short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of
elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are
somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and
modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep
convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared
to various global guidance.

A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to
northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse
rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the
proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will
support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially,
with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail.
Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering
east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a
risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph
on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic
environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward
across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern Oklahoma.

...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin...
Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern
Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level
flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this
favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through
daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to
isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into
Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah.

...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio...
Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur
this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest
Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak
upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and
deep-layer shear.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101301
SWODY1
SPC AC 101259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into
tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest.
Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast
and Southeast.

...Central Plains to Midwest...
A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences
including MCV development and convective overturning, at least
temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat
consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an
MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field,
could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today,
potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models
indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow
(including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist
through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears
that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm
activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts.

Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska
into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height,
might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable
CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this evening.

...New England and Upper Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec
today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic
flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England.
Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable
during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE
(1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of
20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will
be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York
and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear
should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front.

...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent
associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations,
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters
may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength
westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the
primary hazard regionally.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 111256
SWODY1
SPC AC 111254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some
tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest.

...Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley to Great Lakes...
A decayed overnight MCS and residual convection/cloud cover will
reinforce the baroclinic zone regionally. Near/south of the
boundary, surface dew points near and above 70F, beneath modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates, are forecast to contribute to CAPE on
the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. This will be beneath a lingering belt
of convectively augmented mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt
in the 700-500 mb layer). Coupled with modest, clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs in advance of a weak surface wave, the
environment should become conducive to supercell structures into
mid/late afternoon. These supercells may pose a risk for hail and
potentially a couple of tornadoes across parts of northern Missouri
and southern/eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, and possibly far
southern Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts should become the more
predominant potential hazard as convection tends to grow upscale
into east/southeastward-moving clusters this evening.

...Central High Plains...
The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe
storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast
Wyoming and northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska/northwest
Kansas. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be
expected, and one or more east/eastward-moving clusters may evolve
by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility.

...Upper Midwest...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected
near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon, including
the eastern Dakotas into much of Minnesota. This will be influenced
by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the
Dakotas/northern Minnesota. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear
will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will
support storms capable of hail/wind.

...Southern Rockies into the Great Plains...
Thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest low-level moisture,
but with generally steep lapse rates, including fairly deep
boundary-layer mixing, may become conducive to scattered
thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for severe wind and hail late
this afternoon and evening. A degree of storm organization may be
aided by modest shear beneath northwesterly mid-level flow, with
thunderstorm activity mostly initiating off the higher terrain of
the Front Range through Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Additionally,
low-level convergence within surface troughing across southern
Kansas through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity may also become
sufficient for thunderstorm initiation during the peak late
afternoon heating, and one or more semi-organized clusters capable
of wind damage could evolve. This region will be reevaluated in
subsequent outlooks for potential inclusion of a wind-related Slight Risk.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/11/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 121251
SWODY1
SPC AC 121250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset.

...Great Lakes/Midwest...
An eastward-moving shortwave trough near the Manitoba/Ontario and
Minnesota international border vicinity will overspread Lake
Superior through late today into this evening while gradually taking
on more negative tilt, with a convectively influenced perturbation
ahead of it. Associated moderately strong westerlies will be
relegated to portions of Wisconsin/Michigan, with sub-25 kt
mid-level westerlies generally prevalent southward into the
lower/middle Ohio River vicinity.

Influenced by the lead shortwave trough, storm redevelopment may
occur relatively early today across northern/eastern Lower Michigan,
which could include some supercells. Primary storm development along
an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to
late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower Michigan towards the
Wabash/Lower Ohio Valleys. Ample buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will
be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level
temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind
speeds through the lower/middle troposphere will limit deep-layer
shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will
be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will
subside after sunset with storms lingering across Kentucky/Ohio.

Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the
secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern
Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Cooling mid-level temperatures will
aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly
low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear
and help to marginalize the overall threat.

...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas...
Today's severe risk will be influenced by multiple
slow-east/southeast-moving MCVs that persist this morning across
southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. Storms will likely
diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of
Oklahoma and a large part of north Texas. A modest MCV-related
enhancement to the lower/middle tropospheric wind field may persist
today, which could lead to some brief supercell structures and
quasi-organized linear structures as mergers become more prevalent.
Damaging winds and some hail may occur, and portions of the region
will be reevaluated for a possible Slight Risk upgrade should
confidence increase in a semi-focused corridor of severe potential
this afternoon through early evening.

...Colorado/New Mexico...
Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the
higher terrain should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as
numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail
will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly
across interior to southern New Mexico.

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virgina...
A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear
but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet
microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage
possible.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/12/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 161232
SWODY1
SPC AC 161230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A well-defined MCV is evident on radar/satellite imagery this
morning over IA. This feature will drift east-northeastward today
across the Midwest and Great Lakes, eventually reaching southern
Ontario tonight. A related surface low will develop from IA to
southern WI and Lake Michigan this afternoon/evening, with the
primary synoptic front farther north in WI. Diurnal heating of a
rather moist low-level airmass will likely yield around 1000-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE across southern WI into northern/central IL (locally
stronger with southward extent). The modestly enhanced low/mid-level
winds associated with the MCV should support around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, sufficient for organized severe thunderstorms.

Current expectations are for a band of semi-discrete thunderstorms
to develop across eastern IA into northern IL and southern/central
WI by early to mid afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to the
MCV overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. Some of this activity
could be supercellular initially and pose a threat for isolated
severe hail along with damaging winds. With time late this afternoon
and evening, gradual upscale growth into a bowing cluster should
occur, with a greater risk for severe/damaging winds towards Lake
Michigan and parts of southern Lower MI. Although low-level flow and
related shear is not forecast to become overly strong this
afternoon, it should be sufficient for some low-level updraft
rotation and perhaps a few tornadoes, particularly across parts of
southern WI/northern IL where semi-discrete convection may occur.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough located over the OH Valley this
morning will advance northeastward today to the northern
Mid-Atlantic/NY. Recent visible satellite imagery this morning shows considerable cloud cover present with this feature, along with some
low clouds downstream. Even so, filtered daytime heating of a
seasonably moist airmass should support the development of weak to
locally moderate instability by this afternoon. Poor lapse rates
aloft may tend to inhibit stronger updrafts to some extent, but
marginal deep-layer shear (generally around 20-30 kt) should still
support some degree of convective organization. Loosely organized
clusters and occasional cells may pose an isolated threat for
damaging winds as they spread generally east-northeastward across
parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening.
Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds remains
too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time.

...Central Plains to Northern Missouri...
A convectively reinforced surface front should stall by this
afternoon across KS into eastern CO, with a modest low-level upslope
flow regime occurring across the Front Range/central High Plains. On
the southern periphery of an upper trough moving eastward over the northern/central Plains, thunderstorms should develop by early
afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies. This
convection is forecast to move eastward into the adjacent High
Plains through the rest of the afternoon, and continuing through the
evening. The post-frontal airmass should only modestly destabilize,
but enough instability and the presence of steepened lapse rates
aloft are forecast to support robust updrafts. Weak low-level flow
veering to westerly and gradually strengthening with height at
mid/upper levels will likely foster around 35-45 kt of deep-layer
shear. This will easily support supercells and associated large hail
threat with the initial development. Some potential for upscale
growth into a loosely organized cluster is possible across southeast
CO and vicinity this evening along/near the stalled surface front.
If this occurs, then severe winds would become the primary risk.

Farther east across KS into northern MO, isolated convection may
develop through peak afternoon heating along the front. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain fairly modest, strong
instability and steep mid-level lapse rates could still support
occasional severe hail/wind with the more robust cores that can be
sustained. Additional convection may develop along/north of the
front this evening in a low-level warm advection regime, while also
posing an isolated severe threat.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Convection offshore from the central Gulf Coast remains disorganized
this morning, as a weak surface low (Invest 93L) remains along/near
the coast of the FL Panhandle. Regardless of potential tropical
development (reference latest NHC forecast), modest enhancement to
the low-level wind field should occur as this feature tracks towards coastal/southeast LA by early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms should occasionally spread inland along/near the central Gulf Coast through
the period, but overall severe potential still appears too limited
to introduce a Marginal Risk with this update.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/16/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 201230
SWODY1
SPC AC 201228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms appear most likely later today into this
evening across parts of the Northeast, Midwest and Ohio Valley, and
northern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northeast today with
increasing mid-level flow ahead of an approaching jet streak. A
low-amplitude ridge will build somewhat across the Upper Midwest.
Farther west, mid-level flow will strengthen across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains as a trough amplifies on the
Pacific Northwest coast.

As of 12Z, an elongated frontal zone exists from the Northeast to
the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes and into the northern Plains.
Ongoing thunderstorms are present across the eastern Great Lakes,
the Midwest, and the northern Plains. This is correlated with the
stronger ascent and the areas with the greatest severe weather
potential today.

...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop across the
Northeast today as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s, and as mid-level temperatures gradually cool through
the day. As the cold front advances east into this uncapped airmass,
scattered thunderstorms should develop. Shear of 30 to 35 knots and
relatively long/straight hodographs will support the potential for
supercells. Weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting
factor for large hail, but the overall favorable shear with strong
venting aloft and potential supercells may support some isolated
large hail.

Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, both from initial
cells and also from any clusters which develop. Any stronger
clusters with bowing segments could support a better organized
damaging wind swath. The greatest wind damage threat will likely
exist from western Massachusetts to far southern Maine.

...Ohio Valley...
A large mass of thunderstorms continues east across eastern Iowa and
northern Illinois this morning. Heating is anticipated south and
east of this activity which should result in an increasing severe
weather threat by late morning to early afternoon. It remains
unclear whether the afternoon severe threat may materialize out of
ongoing thunderstorm activity, or from additional storm development
along the front or the outflow boundary associated with these
storms. Nonetheless, 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of
35 to 40 knots will support an organized severe weather threat
including the potential for supercells. Despite the supercell mode,
the hail threat should remain minimal given the weak mid-level lapse
rates and warm mid-level temperatures with high freezing levels.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms
with the greatest threat from central Indiana to southwest Ohio and
northern Kentucky.

...Northern Plains...
Weak lee troughing is forecast in the western Nebraska vicinity
today as moderate mid-level flow overspreads the northern Plains. A
dryline will extend southward from this surface low into the central
High Plains. Isolated storms are possible along this boundary this afternoon/evening. Moderate destabilization is forecast across
central South Dakota and vicinity as low-level moisture is advected
westward to the north of the surface low.

Diurnal thunderstorm activity is forecast to be relatively isolated
along the dryline with perhaps slightly greater coverage across
eastern Minnesota amid cooler temperatures aloft. However, the
ongoing cluster of storms across North Dakota is forecast to linger
as isentropic ascent is maintained through the day. Eventual upscale
growth and a southeastward movement along the instability gradient
is anticipated. RAP forecast soundings show an environment favorable
for large hail initially with any supercells which develop. However,
the severe wind threat may increase by this evening as storms
congeal into a MCS with potential linear, bowing segments.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 07/20/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211234
SWODY1
SPC AC 211232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, severe gusts,
and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible today and tonight
across parts of the northern Plains. Additional isolated strong to
severe storms may occur across portions of the central Plains.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A long-lived and compact MCS has advanced into parts of west-central
MN this morning. This convection is on the northern periphery of
meaningful low-level moisture and related instability. It should
generally weaken over the next few hours while it tracks
southeastward over southern MN as a low-level jet gradually lessens.
But in the short term, it may still be capable of producing
occasional strong to severe wind gusts. Behind this activity, a
moist and rather unstable airmass will exist across the northern
Plains along and south of a convectively reinforced front that
should become oriented generally east-west along the ND/SD border by
late this afternoon. Large-scale ascent across the northern Plains
will likely be weak for much of the day, as upper ridging remains
prominent over the central CONUS.

Even so, there are indications that a weak mid-level perturbation
emanating from upper troughing over the Pacific Northwest should
overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains of
central/eastern MT by mid/late afternoon as ample daytime heating of
a slowly moistening low-level airmass occurs. A belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow will accompany this feature,
supporting ample veering/strengthening of the wind profile with
height through mid/upper levels. Related strong deep-layer shear of
40-50+ kt will easily support supercells with initial development
off the Bighorns given the presence of at least moderate instability
across the High Plains. Large hail will be possible with these
supercells this afternoon, followed by an increasing severe wind
threat with time this evening/overnight into parts of the Dakotas as
convection potentially grows upscale, and where ample MUCAPE and
strong deep-layer shear will be present along/north of the surface
boundary. The development of elevated supercells also appears
possible across parts of the Dakotas late tonight as a low-level jet
gradually strengthens, with a related threat for at least isolated
severe hail if they occur.

...Central Plains...
Much of the central Plains will remain capped today, as the upper
ridge and warm temperatures aloft exert their influence. A surface
trough is expected to extend southward across the central High
Plains this afternoon, and a remnant MCV related to earlier
convection should move eastward along/near the NE/KS border. Both of
these features may aid in at least isolated thunderstorm development
this afternoon, in the presence of moderate to strong instability
amid modest deep-layer shear. Isolated severe hail and wind gusts
may occur with any of the more robust cores that can develop and be
maintained in an otherwise weak forcing regime. The Marginal Risk
has been expanded southward a little to include more of northern KS
and southeast NE, where strong to severe convection may develop
later today in close proximity to the MCV.

...Tennessee Valley into the Southeast...
A weak MCV related to ongoing convection across MO and southern IL
this morning will track southeastward across the TN Valley and
vicinity through this afternoon. Modest west-northwesterly flow
should be in place today across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the
Southeast. This may support loosely organized multicells and pulse thunderstorms today, as mostly sunny conditions aid in the
development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. While deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, some
of this convection may still be capable of producing strong to
locally damaging winds. Parts of these regions may be considered for
inclusion in a Marginal Risk in a later outlook update, pending
additional observational/model trends.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/21/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221234
SWODY1
SPC AC 221232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the
northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper ridging will remain anchored over the MS Valley
and Southeast today. A positively tilted upper trough will persist
over the Northwest and northern Rockies, with enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow continuing though the period over the northern
Plains. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to gradually develop
eastward across western/central SD by this evening, with a lee
trough extending southward from this low across the central High
Plains. A convectively reinforced boundary extending northeastward
from the surface low into northern MN may act as a focus for robust thunderstorm development later today.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Extensive convective overturning has occurred overnight across the
northern Plains into parts of MN, with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms generally remaining sub-severe while tracking
east-northeastward along/north of the surface front. This activity
has been aided by a southerly low-level jet across the Plains, which
is forecast to gradually weaken though midday. While isolated hail
or strong to severe gusts may occur with ongoing thunderstorms, the
net effect of this convection may be to displace the surface
boundary farther south than most guidance indicates. In the wake of
this early day convection and associated weak mid-level shortwave
trough, heights are forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly
through the day across much of ND/SD into MN. This weak/nebulous
large-scale forcing casts considerable uncertainty regarding
convective development with eastward extent across the Dakotas into
MN this afternoon and evening.

Even so, it does appear probable that thunderstorms will once again
form along/near the Bighorns in northern WY/southern MT, as a weak
embedded mid-level perturbation and related jet overspread the
northern High Plains. This region will generally be post-frontal,
but steep mid-level lapse rates combined with diurnal heating of the
modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development
of at least weak instability by the time convection initiates this
afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells
initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very
large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow
upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater
threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains
high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether
it will remain surface-based or elevated.

Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that
robust convection will develop before this evening due to the
stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If
thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues
to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support
severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Sufficient
low-level shear should also be present near the front to support
some risk for a tornado. This activity would probably remain tied
close the surface boundary, with less potential for a
forward-propagating MCS into central/southern MN. Accordingly, have
trimmed the southern extent of the Slight Risk in MN. Finally, a MCV
related to extensive convection in KS yesterday is forecast to
develop northeastward across IA this afternoon/evening. Sufficient
instability and shear should be present with this feature to support
an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms, assuming convection can
develop and persist.

...Central High Plains...
Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward
across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and
deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this
region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, low-level lapse
rates should become steepened through the afternoon and early
evening with ample daytime heating. Given the deeply mixed boundary
layer forecast, any of this high-based convection could produce
occasional strong to severe wind gusts. Have therefore expanded the
Marginal Risk southward a bit into eastern CO and western KS to
account for this potential.

...Southeast...
A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC.
A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the
front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate
to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along
various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing
occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/22/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231202
SWODY1
SPC AC 231200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and
potentially a tornado risk are expected across the middle Missouri
Valley and Upper Midwest to upper Great Lakes, mainly this afternoon
and evening. Large hail may occur with supercells later today across
parts of the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough over central Canada and the
northern Rockies/High Plains will advance slowly eastward today,
impinging on an upper ridge that will remain over much of the
Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and OH Valley. A quasi-stationary surface
front arcing northeastward from a weak low in central SD should make
some southeastward progress as a cold front today across portions of
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as a low-amplitude mid-level
shortwave trough advances eastward across these regions through the
period. This front will likely serve as a continued focus for strong
to severe convection today.

...Mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are occurring this morning,
generally along/north of the surface front across north-central SD
into northern MN. This activity may tend to remain somewhat elevated
through most of the morning, but it may still pose an isolated
severe hail/wind threat given the presence of moderate MUCAPE and
sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. A
separate band of elevated convection is ongoing along/near the NE/SD
border. This activity is likely more tied to low-level warm
advection, and it remains somewhat unclear what affect these
thunderstorms will have on the warm sector later today if they can
persist.

Regardless of the uncertainty with the evolution and intensity of
ongoing thunderstorms this morning, daytime heating along/south of
the front will likely aid in strong to locally extreme instability
developing by early to mid afternoon, as a very moist airmass is
already in place across the Upper Midwest per area surface
observations. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will tend
to become more modest with southward extent along the surface front.
But, they should still be sufficient to promote organized severe
convection, especially across MN into WI.

Current expectations are for multiple bowing clusters/line segments
to develop this afternoon along much of the front from NE into
eastern SD and MN. Scattered severe/damaging winds will likely be
the primary threat with this activity as it spreads eastward into
parts of northern WI and the U.P of MI this evening. Isolated hail
may occur with initial development. Modest low-level shear may also
support some tornado threat, mainly across parts of MN into WI where
a southwesterly low-level jet should be focused later this
afternoon/early evening. To account for both the ongoing activity
and recent guidance trends suggesting an earlier/westward start to
robust thunderstorms this afternoon along the front, the Marginal
and Slight Risks have been expanded westward some across NE/SD/MN
with this update.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Within a post-frontal environment, east-northeasterly low-level
winds will persist beneath moderately strong westerlies aloft to
yield relatively long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, with
generally 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear from the Black Hills
vicinity northward. This will coincide with moderate diurnal
destabilization, particularly across interior/eastern Wyoming into
southeast Montana and parts of the western Dakotas. Scattered large
hail may occur with any sustained supercells, along with the
possibility of some severe wind gusts, particularly if
east-southeastward moving clusters can develop this evening. With
increased confidence in multiple supercells occurring this
afternoon/evening across northeast WY/southeast MT into western SD,
have introduced a Slight Risk mainly for large hail potential.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/23/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 261154
SWODY1
SPC AC 261153

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be
possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern
Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and
across the central High Plains and much of Montana.

...Northern Plains...
Current water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough and
associated mid-level speed max over parts of UT. As this feature
tracks northeastward today, large-scale lift and subtle cooling
aloft will overspread parts of northeast WY and central/eastern MT. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and
moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered
high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. Storms that move
into western SD will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely
grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized
severe winds. Latest model guidance suggests some potential for
this activity to persist deep into the night and spread across
eastern ND and parts of northern MN. Damaging winds will remain the
main concern, along with some risk of hail and a tornado or two.

...Midwest into Mid-Atlantic Region...
A large cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across
parts of IA/IL. The associated outflow boundaries and clouds will
result in an effective baroclinic zone today from northern MO/IL
into southern Lower MI. Along and south of this boundary, hot/humid
conditions will lead to large CAPE values. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected, with the strongest cells capable of
gusty/damaging winds. This regime will extend eastward into parts
of PA and the Chesapeake Bay area with a few strong afternoon
thunderstorms possible.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/26/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271139
SWODY1
SPC AC 271138

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
from parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great
Lakes. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of
the northern Plains, central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and eastern
North Carolina.

...Northern MN This Morning...
A persistent bowing MCS is over northern MN headed toward the
Arrowhead region. These storms have produced locally damaging wind
gusts through much of the night, but have shown signs of weakening
on the north end of the bow during the past 1-2 hours. One intense
cells remains on the south end of the bow, headed toward the Hibbing
vicinity. This activity may continue to pose a risk of damaging
winds or hail for awhile this morning.

...Upper MS Valley into western Great Lakes...
A convectively aided shortwave trough is currently tracking across
ND. This feature will move into northern MN this afternoon with an
associated surface cold front sagging into central MN. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong heating ahead of the front will
result in a very unstable airmass this afternoon, with MLCAPE values
of 3000-4000 J/kg. A consensus of CAM solutions suggests the
development of a few discrete supercells along the front by mid/late
afternoon. These storms will be capable of very large hail and
perhaps a few tornadoes during the first couple of hours. After
that, upscale growth is likely with damaging winds becoming the main
concern as storms build southeastward across southern MN and into
central WI.

...Mid Atlantic/Central Appalachians...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected once again today from
parts of PA/WV into VA/NC. Similar to previous days, mid-level
lapse rates will be weak and considerable mid-level moisture will
limit overall severe concerns. However, the strongest cells will be
capable of occasional gusty/damaging winds.

...MT...
Strong heating will occur this afternoon across much of
central/eastern MT, where deep boundary-layer mixing will lead to
inverted-v profiles. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along a corridor from southwest into central MT by late
afternoon. These high-based storms may pose a risk of a few
damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/27/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 291204
SWODY1
SPC AC 291203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from southern Montana into the
central High Plains, and across much of Nebraska and western Iowa.
Areas of damaging winds will be possible, with hail most likely over
western areas.

...CO/NE/IA...
Morning water vapor loops show a large ridge over the central US,
with a plume of ample mid-level moisture moving northward across the
southern Rockies. Northeasterly surface winds across northeast CO
will help moisten/destabilize the region, leading to thunderstorms
off the foothills of central CO by mid-afternoon. These storms will
be in a region of moderate CAPE, but rather weak vertical shear and
winds aloft. Clusters of storms capable of small hail and gusty
winds will build eastward through the afternoon into a progressively
more moist/unstable airmass, and may eventually intensify into an
organized MCS across NE/western IA. This activity may persist well
into the night with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...WY/MT...
Multiple weak shortwave troughs are tracking northward across the
Great Basin today toward the northern Rockies. This will lead to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of southwest MT
and northern WY. Surface dewpoints in the 50s along with strong
daytime heating will result in considerable CAPE, along with
sufficient westerly winds aloft for some convective organization.
Initial storms over the higher terrain will pose some risk of hail
and gusty winds. As the activity builds eastward into the plains, a
greater risk for large hail and severe winds will likely develop
through the evening.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/29/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 010601
SWODY1
SPC AC 010559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD
INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least
isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and
surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia.

...High Plains vicinity...
Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the
central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and
evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to
transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region,
and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg)
expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO.
Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level
flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of 30-40 kt.

Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain,
and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to
move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible
initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and
possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time,
which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe
gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening.

A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO,
where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of
severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High
Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat
greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated
coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will
also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will
relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong
storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the
northern Rockies.

...Carolinas into Georgia...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the
eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a
cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the
Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift
will move southward ahead of the primary front.

Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW
(greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential
for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in
some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas
of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of
the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and
placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities
may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused
corridor of wind-damage potential.

...Northeast TX vicinity...
Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from
central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests
a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX,
associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be
quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed
for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related
enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection
later today.

..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 021954
SWODY1
SPC AC 021953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central
and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to
very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats.

...20z...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions
appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as
thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along
a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details).
These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to
suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will
undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours
with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show
disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more
predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will
be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where
the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher
wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.

..Moore.. 08/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude
shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and
into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight.
An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from
the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the
Great Basin and into KS.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range
this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional
storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone
draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High
Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25
to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of
the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing
by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W
parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support
supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the
convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary
hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist
for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level
southerly flow increases.

It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening
with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into
the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts
will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm
morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread.

...Northern High Plains...
Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is
forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this
afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern
MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be
potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph).

...Southeast...
Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and
ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm
development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL
Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse,
multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may
yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets
of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening.

...Northern Great Basin...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV
border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and
mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC
period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a
risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 041258
SWODY1
SPC AC 041256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible today and
tonight from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
Early morning surface analysis shows upper 50s dewpoints in place
across eastern CO, western KS, and western NE, with slightly lower
dewpoints across the NE Panhandle. Moist, southerly low-level flow
will help increase dewpoints across the region throughout the day,
likely resulting in upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints during the
afternoon despite strong heating and boundary-layer mixing. This
should result in a strongly buoyant but minimally capped airmass
across the region by the late afternoon. Additionally, low-level
southeasterly flow will veer to northwesterly in the mid levels,
resulting in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear and an
overall wind profile that favors supercells. As such, there is
conditional risk for severe thunderstorms. However, the forcing
mechanism for convective initiation is uncertain.

Upper ridging that currently extends from the Southwest into the
northern High Plains is expected to persist throughout the day, with
heights likely rising across the central High Plains. A shortwave
trough currently moving through the Great Basin is expected to move
within the northern periphery of this ridging, reaching the central
Rockies by this afternoon. Even so, given that heights are forecast
to rise across the central High Plains, the downstream influence of
this wave into the central High Plains will likely be minimal. This
overall lack of larger scale ascent leads to uncertainty regarding
storm coverage since more mesoscale factors, such as low-level
convergence along the lee troughing and weak low-level upslope flow,
will be the mechanisms for convective initiation. High-resolution
guidance offers varied storm coverage, with more recent HRRR runs
(i.e. 06-08Z) keeping the area largely free of storms versus earlier
runs (i.e. 00Z) which show scattered coverage. However, these drier
and less convective HRRR runs appear to be outliers compared to all
the other available guidance, and the general expectation is that
low-level convergence and upslope flow across the Black Hill
vicinity should be enough for scattered convective initiation.

As mentioned previously, the overall environment supports supercells
capable of large to very large hail and strong gusts. Any supercells
that develop could last for a few hours, but should eventually trend
towards a more linear mode with one or more clusters evolving across western/central NE and northeast CO this evening. Aided by a 40+ kt
low-level jet, continued upscale growth should support these
clusters of strong to severe storms into the overnight hours where
damaging winds will be possible.

...Northern Rockies into eastern Montana...
Shortwave trough currently moving through southern OR is forecast to
continue northeastward through the northern Rockies today and
tonight, while becoming increasingly negatively tilted. Ascent
attendant to this wave will interact with a modest buoyant airmass
from central ID into central MT, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Initially more cellular storms are
expected across the higher terrain of central ID and western MT with
eventual cold pool amalgamation resulting in one or two
eastward/northeastward progressing clusters across central and
eastern MT. Some hail is possible with the more cellular storms, but
damaging gusts appear to be the greater severe risk. Sufficient
severe storm coverage is anticipated across central and eastern MT
to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong heating along a lee trough could support isolated
thunderstorm development from the Raton Mesa into southeast
CO/northeast NM. The thermodynamic environment here will be similar
to areas farther north, with large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and
40-50 kt of effective shear anticipated. A supercell mode is
expected initially with any storms that mature, with large hail,
damaging gusts, and a brief tornado possible. Storm maintenance into
the OK/TX Panhandles is possible, particularly given the
strengthening low-level jet.

...Central/Southeast Texas...
A decaying MCS continues to push southward/southeastward across
central TX at 35 kt. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible
with this system over the next hour or two, but warming cloud tops
and lowering echo tops suggest this system will continue to weaken.
Additional storm development is possible along the western portion
of the outflow, but low-level stability should mitigate updraft strength.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/04/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 051244
SWODY1
SPC AC 051242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large
hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this
evening.

...Northern Plains...
Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this
morning across the western Dakotas, where the western edge of the
low-level jet overlaps the eastern edge of the steep mid-level lapse
rates. These storms will likely continue northeastward this morning,
perhaps even expanding in coverage, as the low-level jet persists
and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough strengthens. Occasionally strong updrafts could produce hail and a
damaging gust or two.

Cloud cover and outflow associated with these storms could result in
an effective warm front extending from a weak low over western SD
eastward across central and eastern SD. The exact location and
sharpness of this front remain uncertain. Given that the shortwave
trough will likely remain well west of the region, low-level
convergence near this boundary as well as the surface low should
both be areas where convective initiation is most likely this
afternoon. Ample buoyancy and vertical shear will be in place for
supercells with the initial development, with large hail and
damaging gusts as the primary risks. Stronger low to mid-level flow
may be in place across eastern SD, contributing to greater low-level
shear and relatively higher tornado potential. Primary concern
across eastern SD is whether or not the warmer low to mid-level
temperatures inhibit the development of mature updrafts.

One other scenario that seems plausible is for storms on southern
periphery the ongoing cluster to become increasingly surface based
as they move eastward/northeastward with time. Given current trends
and recent guidance, this would most likely occur along the eastern
ND/SD border after 20Z. As previously mentioned, hail is possible
within this cluster throughout the day, but the transition to a more surface-based character could introduce the threat for stronger
gusts as well.

A strengthening low-level jet coupled with persistent mid-level
westerlies support the potential for upscale growth in a
east-southeastward progressing MCS. Damaging gusts will be possible
with this MCS, particularly over SD, but increasing low-level
stability should result in a gradually diminishing severe potential
with eastward/southeastward extend into northeast NE, northwest IA,
and southwest MN.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/05/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 081250
SWODY1
SPC AC 081248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight
across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Scattered
damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
An extensive MCS which produced numerous severe wind gusts across ND
earlier this morning has recently weakened across northern MN. While
occasional strong to locally damaging gusts may still occur in the
short term, this convection should continue weakening through the
rest of the morning as it moves into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. In the wake of this activity, an upper trough/low will
continue advancing eastward across the northern Rockies/Plains
towards the Upper Midwest through the period. At the surface, a weak
low over central SD this morning should develop northeastward to
northern MN by this evening, while a trailing cold front advances
southward across the northern/central High Plains.

Outflow from the morning convection may act as a pseudo warm front
and focus for renewed intense thunderstorm development later today
across parts of central/northern MN. The southern extent and
location of this boundary by this evening remains somewhat
uncertain. Even so, a rather moist and strongly to extremely
unstable airmass will be present east of the cold front and south of
the outflow boundary by late this afternoon across the upper MS
Valley. It still appears probable that additional surface-based
convection may develop by late afternoon/early evening across
eastern ND/northwest MN and vicinity as large-scale ascent preceding
the upper trough/low overspreads the warm sector.

While stronger flow aloft may tend to lag the surface cold front to
some extent, there should still be sufficient deep-layer shear to
support organized updrafts, including supercells with some large
hail threat. Given a large degree of boundary-parallel flow aloft, a
quick linear transition should occur this evening, with a greater
threat for severe/damaging winds. A narrow window for a couple of
tornadoes may exist across parts of MN, mainly this evening
along/near the residual outflow boundary where effective SRH may
become locally enhanced with a gradual strengthening of a southerly
low-level jet. Otherwise, the threat for damaging winds may continue
through tonight across parts of the upper MS Valley so long as any
MCS that develops can remain surface based. Given the potential
effects of the ongoing morning convection, confidence in a corridor
of more concentrated wind potential remains too low to include
greater severe probabilities with this update.

...High Plains...
Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along/north of a cold front
in the western Dakotas. This activity may pose an isolated hail
threat given ample MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear. The potential
for additional thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across the
central High Plains either along or behind the front in a low-level
upslope flow regime remains unclear. A conditional risk for
supercells with associated large hail threat is still apparent, but
overall coverage of intense convection may remain quite isolated.
Farther south across the southern High Plains, high-based convection
is expected to develop this afternoon within a hot and well-mixed
boundary layer. Deep-layer flow and related shear will generally
remain weak, but outflow-driven clusters may still be capable of
localized severe gusts.

...Northern Lower Michigan...
Similar to yesterday, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon and evening across parts of northern Lower MI
and vicinity, along the northeast periphery of the substantial
reservoir of instability over the central Plains and Midwest. Modest northwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for some
updraft organization, with a threat for occasional hail and damaging winds.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/08/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101236
SWODY1
SPC AC 101234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats. Strong to severe thunderstorms may
also occur from parts of the Midwest to the upper Great Lakes.

...Eastern Kansas/Missouri/Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes...
Loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across parts of
eastern IA, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a MCV.
While this activity has generally remained sub-severe for the past
few hours, there is some potential for gradual re-intensification
through the afternoon as the MCV tracks northeastward across parts
of the Upper Midwest. While cloud cover is noted downstream per
early-morning visible satellite imagery, filtered daytime heating
should encourage the development of weak to locally moderate
instability by early to mid afternoon over portions of WI and
vicinity ahead of a weak front. It remains unclear whether a bowing
cluster will be able to form later today, but isolated damaging
winds may occur if it develops and can persist.

Farther south across eastern KS into MO, ongoing thunderstorms are
occurring generally to the north of a convectively reinforced
outflow boundary/front. While this elevated activity could pose an
isolated hail/wind threat this morning, it is generally forecast to
diminish by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually
weakens. However, additional thunderstorm development may occur this afternoon/evening along and south of the outflow boundary in MO as
daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass supports
moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer shear will remain weak
across this area, but occasional severe/damaging gusts could still
occur given the large degree of buoyancy forecast.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Extensive convective overturning yesterday/early this morning should
result in a less unstable post-frontal airmass across the
central/southern High Plains compared to Saturday. Even so, steep
mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Southwest should once again
overspread a modestly moist low-level airmass this afternoon. This
will foster the development of weak to moderate instability in
tandem with daytime heating. Thunderstorms will likely develop over
the higher terrain/CO Front Range by early afternoon as a weak
mid-level shortwave trough presently over eastern UT/western CO
moves eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts
is forecast, including the potential for a few supercells with
associated threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps a tornado.

With time, clustering should occur over the central/southern High
Plains along and perhaps a bit north of the convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary. Ample MUCAPE, steepened lapse rates aloft,
and a modest southerly low-level jet should support some threat for
severe gusts with one or more clusters that may spread eastward this
evening and overnight. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across
parts of western/central KS, the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles, and
northwest OK based on a consensus of recent model guidance showing
this potential.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/10/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 101957
SWODY1
SPC AC 101956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and
damaging winds the main threats.

...20z Update Front Range...
Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher
terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough
shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon.
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will
support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale
growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into
parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther
north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will
continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools
deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less
than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts
of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover
the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info.

..Lyons.. 08/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/

...CO/KS...
Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead
of this trough will aid in the development of scattered
thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon,
with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample
low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS
to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft
for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an
increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening.
A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant
outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK.

...MO/IL/WI...
A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast
IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit
overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds
could occur with the strongest cells.

...Southeast AZ...
Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening
thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a
hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally
damaging wind gusts.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 131239
SWODY1
SPC AC 131238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur across
parts of the northern/central Plains this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic may
produce occasional damaging winds this afternoon.

...Northern/Central Plains...
The primary upper trough will remain over western/central Canada
today, with quasi-zonal westerly mid-level flow continuing over much
of the northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A
subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough over parts of ID/western MT
this morning associated with ongoing weak convection is forecast to
advance eastward towards eastern MT/WY and the western Dakotas by
early this evening. Gradually warming low/mid-level temperatures and
a stout cap will likely hinder surface-based convective development
across much of the northern/central Plains until mid to late
afternoon at the earliest. Still, the modest large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching shortwave trough may be sufficient
in tandem with robust daytime heating and localized orographic
effects near the Black Hills to initiate thunderstorms.

Modest low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today
along/east of a surface lee trough. Initially high-based convection
across the northern/central High Plains could pose an isolated
threat for mainly severe gusts as it continues eastwards towards
greater low-level moisture and MLCAPE. The best potential for a more
focused corridor of severe winds and isolated large hail still
appears generally along/east-southeast of the Black Hills towards
central SD and perhaps north-central NE this evening into the early
overnight hours. Here, moderate instability and deep-layer shear
should overlap with a very well-mixed boundary layer, supporting a
severe wind threat with any cluster that can become established amid
a gradually strengthening low-level jet. Some uncertainty still
remains regarding this potential, however, as low/mid-level
temperatures (around 850-700 mb) are forecast to remain quite warm.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
The Northeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic will experience the
glancing influence of upper troughing advancing eastward over
Ontario/Quebec today. A moist low-level airmass is already in place
ahead of a weak surface front extending southwestward from the Great
Lakes into the Midwest. Although lapse rates aloft will remain poor
through the afternoon, diurnal heating ahead of ongoing showers and thunderstorms this morning should promote weak to locally moderate
instability from New England to parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Generally
modest mid-level flow (around 15-25 kt at 500 mb) should tend to
limit deep-layer shear given weak winds at low levels. Even so,
loosely organized clusters may still pose some threat for isolated
damaging winds this afternoon and early evening as convection
spreads eastward amid a boundary layer characterized by steepened
low-level lapse rates.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/13/2025

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 141236
SWODY1
SPC AC 141234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts
may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the
northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Ongoing elevated thunderstorms across parts of eastern SD this
morning are occurring in association with a low-amplitude shortwave
trough and related low-level warm advection. This activity has
remained sub-severe through much of the early morning hours, but it
could still pose an isolated hail threat in the short term given
weak MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear. It remains unclear
whether additional thunderstorm development will occur later this
afternoon across parts of southern MN and vicinity as the shortwave
trough continues eastward across the upper MS Valley. The airmass
across this area will gradually destabilize through the day, but
capping may tend to inhibit additional development. Still, a
conditional threat for isolated severe hail/wind exists if robust
thunderstorms can initiate, so have maintained the Marginal Risk
across southern MN for this possibility.

Thunderstorms across southern Manitoba this morning are expected to
generally remain along/north of the international border as they
continue eastward into western Ontario. A fairly strong
mid/upper-level trough will progress eastward today across Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with the southern fringe of this perturbation
glancing the northern Plains later today. Enhanced westerly
mid-level flow will overspread ND and northern MN late this
afternoon though tonight, while a surface cold front advances east-southeastward across the northern Plains through the period.
Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of the
front, with evapotranspiration also aiding surface dewpoints
potentially reaching into the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s by early
evening. Ample daytime heating and steep lapse rates aloft will aid
in the development of at least 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon.

The primary uncertainty regarding convective development along the
front is a capped 850-700 mb layer and weak forcing with southward
extent across the northern Plains, as the primary upper trough will
remain across Canada through the period. Even so, low-level
convergence along the front may become sufficient for cells to
initiate by early evening, mainly across parts of eastern ND into
northwest MN where MLCIN should be weakest. Any convection which can
be sustained could pose a threat for large to isolated very large
hail given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some
potential for upscale growth into clusters along the front remains
apparent this evening into the early overnight hours, with greater
severe wind threat. However, inhibition will quickly increase with
eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer
occurs; so, the severe wind threat remains uncertain.

Finally, scattered high-based thunderstorms should occur this
afternoon and evening farther south across parts of the central High
Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and encounters greater
instability along/east of a surface lee trough, it may become
capable of producing isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally
severe hail. The lack of stronger forcing aloft and modest
deep-layer shear should temper the overall severe threat with
southward extent.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/14/2025

$$
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