ACUS01 KWNS 071229
SWODY1
SPC AC 071228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast.

...Central High Plains into the northern Plains...
A shortwave trough within westerly mid-level flow will move
east/southeast across the central/northern Plains through tonight,
along the periphery of a meridionally-expanding upper-level ridge.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will expand east across the central
Plains, above a moist boundary layer (generally 60s F dew points)
and contributing to strong instability this afternoon with MLCAPE at
or above 2500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the higher terrain over the central High Plains,
and move east through this evening. Initial supercells will be
capable of large to very large hail, though transitioning into one
or more MCSs with an increase in damaging wind potential, including
significant severe gusts.

Thunderstorms are also expected to develop/re-intensify, across
central/eastern SD along a surface trough, with upscale growth into
an MCS capable of severe winds as it moves east, potentially into
southwest MN this evening before weakening. Given expectations for
greater coverage based on latest hi-res guidance, the Level
3/Enhanced Risk has been extended north across eastern SD/southwest
MN based on higher (30%) severe wind probabilities.

...Upper Ohio River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast...
A cold Front will move east today, and inpinge upon a moist (PW at
or above 1.75 in) and moderately unstable air mass, with afternoon
MLCAPE ranging from near 1000 J/kg across ME to 1500-2000 J/kg over
the upper OH Valley. The area will located along the southern fringe
of modest southwest mid-level flow, sufficient for some degree of
updraft organization. Scattered multicell/clusters of thunderstorms
developing this afternoon will pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts
with isolated stronger storms.

...Lower Ohio Valley into Ozarks...
Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon developing in the vicinity of
a southward-advancing cold front will have the potential for
isolated wet microbursts within a moist (PW 1.75 to over 2 inches)
air mass. Weak cloud-bearing layer shear should limit organization,
but overall storm coverage should be sufficient for isolated
damaging gusts.

..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/07/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 281227
SWODY1
SPC AC 281225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds
are likely across portions of the northern Plains, with several
gusts expected to exceed 75 mph. A few line-embedded tornadoes and
instances of severe hail may also occur. Widely scattered storms may
produce severe wind and hail over portions of Montana.

...Northern Plains...
A convectively active afternoon and evening is expected across parts
of the Dakotas/MN/IA/WI, where numerous intense thunderstorms are
expected. An overnight MCS has temporarily stabilized/modified the
air mass across much of MN/IA. A consensus of model guidance
appears to have handled this scenario well, and depicts rapid return
of low-level moisture and heating across this region by
mid-afternoon. Meanwhile upstream in eastern MT and western ND/SD,
a subtle shortwave trough will top the ridge and spread large scale
forcing into the region, leading to scattered thunderstorm
development. Very steep mid-level lapse rates are in place across
ND/SD, where easterly low-level winds and evapo-transpiration will
help surface dewpoints to rise to near 70F. Forecast soundings show
extreme instability will develop (MLCAPE values over 6000 J/kg)
aiding in rapid intensification of supercells across central SD.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur with this
early activity.

The most likely scenario for evening convective activity continues
to be for an organized and fast-moving linear MCS to develop and
race eastward across eastern SD into parts of MN/IA. One or more
corridors of widespread/significant wind damage are expected,
possibly achieving derecho criteria. Have extended the ENH/SLGT
risk areas a little farther east into parts of MN/IA/WI, where a few
overnight CAM solutions suggest the bowing complex persists before
weakening late tonight.

...Central MT...
Easterly low-level winds across MT will advect moisture westward
into the mountains, where scattered thunderstorm development is
expected by late afternoon. These storms will spread into central
MT during the evening, with sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for a
risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/28/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 071251
SWODY1
SPC AC 071250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight
across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on
North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and
significant severe gusts are possible.

...Northern Plains...
Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northeastern MT this
morning, supported by warm-air advection throughout the northwestern
periphery of surface low over southeast MT. Steep mid-level lapse
rates remain in place downstream of these storms, and southwesterly
mid-level flow will persist, so the general expectation is for these
storms to continue through the morning into the early afternoon.
Cloud cover associated with these storms could result in a
differential heating zone that with create a warm-front-like feature
across northern ND. At the same time, moisture low-level
southeasterly flow will continue across the northern Plains, with
dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s across much of the region
by the early afternoon.

The surface low over southeast MT is forecast to drift eastward this
morning towards the MT/WY/SD border intersection vicinity. To the
north of this low, the combination of low-level moisture convergence
and strengthening large-scale ascent will likely result in
convective initiation by the early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s/low 70s and surface temperatures in the 80s beneath
steep mid-level lapse rates will result in an impressive
thermodynamic environment from the MT/ND border downstream into more
of ND. Most guidance suggests MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg.
Moderate shear is also expected within this initiation zone,
supporting an initially supercellular storm mode. All severe hazards
would be possible with these supercells, including very large hail
exceeding 2" in diameter, significant severe gusts around 75 mph,
and tornadoes. Clustering and upscale growth appears probable, with
the resulting MCS then tracking eastward across ND.

Given the extreme buoyancy and moderate westerly flow aloft, there
is some potential for the development of a robust rear inflow jet
and resulting MCS that could be qualified as a derecho. However,
confidence in the development of derecho is too low to increase wind probabilities with this outlook. Regardless, significant wind gusts
appear possible, particularly if the previously mentioned
warm-front-like feature develops and acts as a favored corridor for
MCS propagation. Low-level southeasterly flow is also expected to be
strong enough for some potential for line-embedded tornadoes.

Additional elevated thunderstorms are possible in the wake of this
MCS amid modest warm-air advection atop the MCS outflow. Some large
hail is possible within these storms.

...Northern High Plains...
Farther west, isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop
within a moderately unstable post-frontal regime from central into
eastern MT. Elongated hodographs and steep lapse rates will support
severe hail and wind potential with these cells. Some clustering
remains possible within this regime as well, and depending on the
evolution of downstream convection, storms that initiate in MT may
eventually spread into western/central ND late tonight with a
continued severe threat.

...Northern MO/IA into the Upper Midwest...
Elevated thunderstorms are currently ongoing across southern IA and
northern MO, supported by warm-air advection resulting from a
low-level jet that extends from the TX Panhandle through eastern KS.
Steep mid-level lapse rates are present across much of the region
(sampled by the 12Z TOP sounding), and these storms will likely
continue through the afternoon. An isolated strong wind gusts is
possible with these storms.

Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther
northeast in central/southern WI and northern IL as the low-level
jet strengthens again. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest,
but rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a
threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/07/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)