ACUS02 KWNS 070555
SWODY2
SPC AC 070553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible
from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from
the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level
troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow
(Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the
Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon,
promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be
in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the
development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be
strong to potentially severe.

...Carolinas into southern New England...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding
MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse
rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained
to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The
stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging
gusts.

...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains...
Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and
minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly
likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1.
Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70
F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level
lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH
Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly
low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear.
Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving
MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts.

...Central to Southern High Plains...
Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast,
beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will
yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell
will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated
severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 080558
SWODY2
SPC AC 080556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains
on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the
eastern U.S.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break
down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves
from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin.
Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern
Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the
eastern US.

Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in
response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help
maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a
moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the
east side of the northern Plains lee trough.

... Northern Plains ...

Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid
afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures
in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000
J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest
northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the
four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots.

Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale
ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs,
isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late
afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment
should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures
capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in
diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will
pose an increasing damaging wind threat.

A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with
this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for
initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of
severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was
maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists.

... Southeast US to Southern New England ...

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late
morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly
capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support
water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong
thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage.

..Marsh.. 07/08/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090600
SWODY2
SPC AC 090558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon
and evening on Thursday. Additional severe thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon across portions of the Southeast.

... Synopsis ...

A complex evolution of the mid-to-upper level pattern is expected to
unfold on Thursday across the central United States. A de-amplifying
short-wave trough will move from northern Utah into the central
Great Plains. At the same time, a larger-scale, positive-tilt trough
will amplify during the period across southern Canada as it pushes
east. This will result in an effective split-flow pattern across the north-central US.

... Central and Northern Great Plains ...

Thunderstorms are expected at the start of the period across eastern
portions of the central and northern Great Plains, driven primarily
by warm, moist low-level advection. In the wake of this convection,
the airmass is expected to quickly recover yielding moderate to
extreme instability.

By late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
terrain of northeast Colorado and eastern Wyoming. As the
aforementioned low-amplitude short-wave trough begins to eject into
the central Great Plains, these thunderstorms should quickly move
off the terrain and into the Plains. Damaging winds will be possible
with these storms as the quickly grow upscale in response to the
increasing large-scale ascent. The overall degree of instability
will also support the potential for sporadic large hail.

To the north across North Dakota, convective evolution is more
uncertain. The atmosphere will be extremely unstable in the presence
of a surface boundary and approaching large-scale ascent. Despite
the absence of a more robust signal in the convective allowing
guidance for afternoon convection, coarser-scale guidance suggests
at least scattered thunderstorm development will occur during the
evening and overnight hours. These thunderstorms will be capable of
damaging thunderstorm winds with at least some potential for large hail.

... Portions of the Southeast ...

Thunderstorms will once again develop within a warm, moist, and
weakly capped environment. High precipitable water value (locally in
excess of 2 inches) will support water loaded downdrafts giving way
to wet downbursts capable of wind damage. A Level 2/Slight Risk was
added to highlight the area of highest coverage of potential wet
downbursts.

... Portions of the Northeast ...

Diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer will result in scattered
thunderstorm development across the region. Most-unstable CAPE
values greater than 1000 J/kg and modest effective-layer shear
should support the potential for scattered wind damage. Should
coverage of thunderstorms be greater than currently anticipated an
upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk may be warranted in subsequent
forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/09/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100601
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon
and evening on Friday, from northeast Kansas to eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois.

... Central Great Plains to Midwest ...

A positive-tilt trough will be moving across the northern Plains
through the forecast period. To the south, a low-amplitude
short-wave trough will be moving through the central Great Plains.
At the same time, a diffuse/weak surface cold front will push
east/southeast through the Plains.

At the start of the forecast period one or more decaying MCSs should
be ongoing across portions of Iowa perhaps into northern Illinois to
perhaps as far east as lower Michigan. These MCSs could pose a
residual risk for at least isolated wind damage through the morning.

During the mid-to-late afternoon, additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the wake of the morning convection. At this
time guidance supports multiple initiation points across the area,
the precise locations of which will be strongly influenced by the
evolution of the morning convection.

At this time, the most likely scenario is for initial thunderstorms
to develop across southeast Iowa or northern Missouri along the
residual outflow boundary from the morning convection. A second area
of initiation is likely farther to the west along the diffuse
surface cold front in Nebraska or northeast Kansas, perhaps
extending northward into Minnesota. In both areas, strong
instability may result in rapid thunderstorm development capable of
producing strong wind and large hail. Given the degree of
instability and an existing boundary, a tornado or two may also be
possible, especially with initial thunderstorm development.

With time, expectation is that these convective clusters will grow
upscale as they move east and the primary severe threat should
transition to severe wind gusts.

... High Plains ...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon. These
storms will eventually grow upscale and move southeast toward the
Great Plains. An isolated severe wind threat will be possible with
any of these storms.

... Eastern US ...

A warm, moist, weakly capped airmass will be in place across much of
the east. Despite the absence of pronounced foci for initiation,
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop during
the late morning into the afternoon hours. Deep-layer shear should
remain weak and precipitable water values will be lower than in
preceding days. However, the potential will exist for scattered
water-loaded downbursts capable of producing isolated wind damage.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110711
SWODY2
SPC AC 110710

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana,
northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of
isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to
the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening.

... Synopsis ...

The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature
mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the
central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons
will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest
into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the
forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making
little forward progress across the southern Great Plains.

... Great Lakes Region ...

A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through
eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into
afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level
jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the
upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level
moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg.

As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across
lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to
develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear
being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist
with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to
the degree of instability and precipitable water values around
1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting
boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second,
stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may
develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual
low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be possible.

... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ...

One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing
at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into
Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries
and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in
scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period.
Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values
perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This
degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts
and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely
severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the
degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life cycle.

During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated
across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within
a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow
and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the
convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If
confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to
be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by
wind potential.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120518
SWODY2
SPC AC 120516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA
INTO NEW YORK...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be
possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region
northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms
may occur from eastern Oklahoma into southern Missouri.

...Discussion...

Broad cyclonic flow aloft will envelop the northern Plains to the
Northeast as an upper shortwave trough meanders east while
de-amplifying on Sunday. Over the southern Plains, a weak upper low
may stall over the region.

A seasonally very moist boundary layer will extend across much of
the southern Plains to the Midwest and into the Eastern Seaboard,
providing areas of moderate instability. However, stronger vertical
shear will remain displaced to the north, near the international
border, limiting overlap of instability with wind profiles
sufficient of organized severe convection. Furthermore, heavy rain
across parts of the southern Plains is forecast for Saturday/Day 1.
This may dampen stronger heating and result in poor lapse rates,
limiting overall severe potential. While some gusty winds are
possible across the broad moist warm sector from the southern
Rockies into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity, weak deep-layer
flow and a lack of any discernible mechanisms to focus/organize
thunderstorm activity should limit overall severe potential and the
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for much of the
region. The exception is across portions of OK into southern MO on
the eastern periphery of the weak upper low and a possible MCV from
convection in the Day 1/Saturday period. This feature may provide
some local focus/enhancement to shear and a couple of strong to
severe storms producing gusty winds will be possible.

Some greater potential for strong wind gusts still appears possible
across parts of the VA into NY. Stronger heating will support
steepened low-level lapse rates within the very moist and unstable
airmass, and sporadic wet microbursts may occur. Some modestly
enhanced westerly flow across PA/NY may aid in development of
propagating clusters/outflows as well, and the Marginal risk (level
1 of 5) remains largely unchanged from the prior Day 3 outlook.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 130508
SWODY2
SPC AC 130506

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the northern Plains late Monday afternoon and evening.

...Northern Plains...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will shift east across the
northern Rockies/MT on Monday. In response, a surface low is
forecast to develop over the northern High Plains, with attendant
surface trough extending southward into the central High Plains.
Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing ahead of a
cold front developing southward across MT/ND. Modest moisture and
steep lapse rates will nonetheless support modest instability.
Increasing westerly flow aloft also will provide support for
marginal effective shear (near 25 kt). Increasing ascent by late
afternoon and into the evening may support isolated strong to severe
storms initially along the surface trough, with additional
development possible along the cold front during the evening and
into the nighttime hours. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be
possible.

...Mid-Atlantic into FL...

A very moist airmass with PW values near/above 2 inches will be in
place. Where strong heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is
forecast amid steepening low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear will
remain weak, generally 15-20 kt or less. Nevertheless, sporadic
strong gusts will be possible, but overall severe potential is
expected to remain low at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/13/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 140537
SWODY2
SPC AC 140535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A
greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused
mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota.

...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward
across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse
ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper
Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper
westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a
surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN
by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward
across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough
extends southward into the central High Plains.

Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold
front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and
clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance
suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating
outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt
southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River.
If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be
possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a
favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has
been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD.

Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along
the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern
WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime.
Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms.

...Mid-MS Valley...

Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a
weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist
airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest
instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is
forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs,
steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong
downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update.

..Leitman.. 07/14/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 150529
SWODY2
SPC AC 150527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the
Great Lakes.

...Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes Vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough and MCV is forecast to be located over IA
Wednesday morning. Some ongoing convection is possible from MN into
IA associated with this feature and attendant outflow. As the MCV
shifts east/northeast, a composite outflow/surface cold front
located from central WI into eastern IA will develop eastward across
portion of northern MO/IL through the evening. The downstream warm
sector will be characterized rich moisture, with dewpoints in the
70s F. Daytime heating and modest lapse rates will support strong
instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Vertical shear should increase
as strengthening midlevel westerlies overspread the region,
resulting in 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Organized cells
and clusters will pose a risk for damaging gusts. Low-level shear
may be somewhat enhanced close to the MCV/surface low across
northern IL. Forecast soundings show modestly enlarged/curved
hodographs and a tornado or two could also occur. A more marginal
severe risk could spread east into portions of Lower MI and northern
IN during the late evening/overnight hours, but overall risk should
gradually diminish with eastward extent.

...Central Plains Vicinity...

The western edge of a southward sagging cold front will move across
eastern CO/NE and portions of KS during the day. A very moist and
unstable airmass is expected across the region. Vertical shear will
remain modest, with stronger midlevel westerlies expected to lag
behind the front. Nevertheless, the sagging surface front should
provide focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
within the warm sector, with an accompanying risk for strong gusts.

Additional storms are expected to develop over the central High
Plains of southeast WY/eastern CO in the post-frontal upslope
regime. This activity will spread eastward during the evening and
may be elevated. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible
initially. While guidance varies considerably, some potential exists
for an MCS to develop over parts of KS during the nighttime hours as
the front continues to sag southward and a modest low-level jet
develops. Given large model spread, will hold off on higher outlook probabilities at this time.

...Upper Ohio Valley...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region i
response to a shortwave impulse. While modest instability is
forecast amid a very moist airmass, vertical shear will remain weak.
Sporadic strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, but organized
severe potential continues to be limited/uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/15/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 160540
SWODY2
SPC AC 160538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday.

...Northeast...

A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to
near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will
track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A
trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley
and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front,
a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from
around 1000-2000 J/kg.

While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the
Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for
isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to
remain north of the international border, but the cold front should
provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity.
However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some
early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm
development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further
south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH
Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the
Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer
to the surface low, a tornado or two.

...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic...

A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the
southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into
southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected
ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid
80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward
extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the
sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered
thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a
risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts.

Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of
WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A
similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak
shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 07/16/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 170531
SWODY2
SPC AC 170530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO IOWA...AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of South
Dakota and Nebraska into southern Minnesota and Iowa. Additional
strong to severe storms may occur across portions of West Virginia,
Virginia and North Carolina.

...NE/SD/MN/IA...

Stronger mid/upper level westerly flow will remain confined to the
northern tier of the U.S. from the northern Plains to New England.
Shortwave impulses will migrate through the westerly flow, but
stronger instability will remain displaced to the south of the belt
of stronger flow. Nevertheless, a weak surface low and attendant
trough is forecast to develop over the northern/central High Plains,
and a stalled front will gradually lift north across the northern
Plains and portions of the Midwest. Rich boundary layer moisture and
a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong
destabilization across parts of KS/NE/SD and the Mid-MO Valley.

Vertically veering wind profiles will support rotating storms, while elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km appear favorable for
hail. Steep low-level lapse rates, and some modest dry air noted
between 700-500 mb suggest damaging wind potential is also possible.
While some modest low-level hodograph curvature is noted, 0-1 km
shear is expected to remain modest, though a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.

While this environment generally appears favorable for at least
isolated supercells, convective evolution is uncertain given
somewhat subtle forcing. Additionally, forecast height tendencies
are neutral to possibly small height rises as a shortwave upper
ridge builds over the MT/WY after 21z. Capping across portions of
the region could limit coverage. Where capping is not an issue,
strong instability and modest shear could result in rapid
clustering. Furthermore, early convection may be ongoing across
parts of ND/SD into MN. How these storms and associated cloudiness
evolve through the morning, and any potential outflow generated by
this convection also result in uncertainty. Given these
uncertainties, despite a favorable airmass, will maintain Marginal
(level 1 of 5) probabilities with some expansion of the area.
Outlook upgrades may be necessary later if some of the
aforementioned uncertainties are resolved.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate across the Blue
Ridge to the Mid-Atlantic coast in modest westerly flow on the
northern periphery of the upper high. A very moist airmass will
support moderate destabilization. While shear will remain modest,
multicell clusters could produce strong downbursts. If storms can
organize along consolidating outflows, increasing potential for
damaging winds will occur.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190529
SWODY2
SPC AC 190528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN VERMONT...MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISALAND...CONNECTICUT...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...LONG
ISLAND...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts
and some hail are possible Sunday across parts of New England into
the northern Mid Atlantic.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that the westerlies will remain modestly amplified
across the northern mid-latitudes through this period. While one
notable short wave perturbation may accelerate northeastward out of
the Pacific Northwest into the eastern Canadian provinces, another
is forecast to dig inland across the Pacific Northwest, maintaining larger-scale troughing there. Downstream, broadly anticyclonic flow
is forecast across the northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest,
around the northern periphery of fairly prominent mid/upper ridging
centered over the northern Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity. Farther east,
it appears that a significant mid-level trough emerging from the
Hudson Bay vicinity will continue to dig across the St. Lawrence
Valley and lower Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward
across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

The eastern trough will be accompanied by a reinforcing intrusion of
cooler, drier air southeast of the Great Lakes region and across the
northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard by Sunday night. The trailing
flank of this front is forecast to generally stall across the lower
Ohio into middle Missouri Valleys and adjacent portions of the Great
Plains, beneath the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge.

...New England into northern Mid Atlantic...
Based on latest model output, confidence is increasing in the
likelihood of appreciable (CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg) pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the southward advancing
front, as far north as the southern tier of New York through
portions of northern Vermont/New Hampshire into central Maine by
around 18-19Z Sunday afternoon. Forcing for ascent along/ahead of
the front, aided by the approaching upstream mid-level trough, is
expected to support the initiation of strong thunderstorm
development, in the presence of west-southwesterly deep-layer mean
flow on the order of 30 kt. Forecast soundings indicate moistening thermodynamic profiles, including surface dew points in the mid 60s
to near 70F, but with sufficient sub-saturation to allow for
evaporative cooling, in addition to heavy precipitation loading, to
enhance downdrafts and downward momentum transfer.

Initial activity probably will be accompanied by potentially
damaging downbursts, and perhaps some hail, before perhaps
consolidating into a line with a continuing risk for strong to
severe gusts while spreading southeastward into and across coastal areas.

...Lower Missouri into Lower Ohio Valleys...
East of the warmer and more strongly capping mid-level air across
the Great Plains, convection allowing guidance suggests that one or
two east-southeastward propagating clusters of storms could evolve
along the frontal zone across the region Sunday into Sunday night.
Seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support moderate to large
potential instability along and south of the front, near the
southern periphery of west-northwesterly mid-level flow supportive
of modest shear. However, with no low-level jet to focus convective development, except perhaps across parts of northwestern Missouri
late Sunday evening, and mid/upper support still unclear, confidence
in depicting areas of higher severe probabilities, which may
eventually be needed, remains low at this time.

...Northern/Central Great Plains...
Thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse rates and
sizable CAPE are likely to persist across much of the region through
this period, in the presence of modest to weak deep-layer shear.
However, mid/upper support for convective development remains
unclear, and warming mid-level temperatures downstream of the
Pacific Northwest trough may strengthen inhibition, contributing to
more sparse thunderstorm coverage than prior days.

..Kerr.. 07/19/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 200456
SWODY2
SPC AC 200455

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development may pose at least some risk for
severe wind and hail across parts of the northern Great Plains and
parts of the Southeast Monday into Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate at least some shearing of mid-level
troughing initially across the Pacific Northwest at the outset of
the period, between fairly prominent and persistent lower latitude
ridging encompassing much of the interior U.S. and stronger higher
latitude ridging centered over the northeastern Pacific. However,
one short wave impulse embedded within the troughing may maintain
fairly vigorous strength while slowly accelerating northeastward
into the mountains of western Montana. Downstream of this
perturbation, the interior U.S. ridging may tend to build a bit
further northeastward across parts of the northern U.S. Great Plains
and Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes vicinity, in the wake of
significant mid-level troughing progressing offshore of the northern
U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. Another significant trough and
embedded mid-level low emerging from the northwestern Canadian
Arctic latitudes is forecast to slowly turn east of the Northwest
Territories toward Hudson Bay.

In lower levels, it appears that a cold front associated with the
higher latitude perturbation may advance through the Canadian
Prairies, but remain north of the international border through this
period. A preceding cold front may progress slowly southward
through portions of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling across
parts of the lower Ohio into middle Mississippi Valleys and
weakening across the middle Missouri Valley/northern Great Plains.

...Northern Great Plains...
Beneath a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, models
indicate that a seasonably moist boundary layer will again become
characterized by moderate to large potential instability across
parts of the middle Missouri Valley and adjacent Great Plains. The
NAM has been more aggressive in recent runs with boundary-layer
moistening on northeasterly to easterly low-level flow into
deepening surface troughing across central and southeastern Montana.

However, aside from the higher terrain of central Montana,
downstream of the short wave impulse emerging from the Pacific
Northwest, forcing for ascent to support convective development
remains a bit unclear across much of the remainder of the northern
Great Plains, given the inhibition associated with the elevated
mixed-layer air.

There does appear an increasing signal that a subtle short wave
impulse, migrating around the western/northwestern periphery of the
stronger mid-level ridging, may contribute to scattered vigorous
high-based thunderstorm development within the drier and more deeply
mixed environment across parts of eastern Wyoming and northeastern
Colorado. This activity may pose a risk for severe hail and wind
while tending to advect across and northeast/east of the higher
plains late Monday afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, locally enhanced low-level convergence during and shortly
after peak heating might weaken inhibition sufficiently to support
isolated supercell development within the seasonably moist/higher
CAPE environment, with various model output continuing to indicate
one possible focus across parts of central or north central South Dakota.

...Tennessee Valley into southern Atlantic Seaboard...
Even as the lead cold front continues to advance south of the
stronger westerlies, destabilization along and ahead of it may
become conducive to scattered upscale growing thunderstorm activity
posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts by late Monday
afternoon into early evening. Based on model output, it still
appears possible that this could be aided by a remnant convectively
generated or enhanced perturbation emerging from the lower Ohio Valley.

..Kerr.. 07/20/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210504
SWODY2
SPC AC 210502

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND
ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development may impact parts of the
northern Rockies and Great Plains into Upper Midwest Tuesday into
Tuesday night, posing at least some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that an increasingly prominent mid-level
high will evolve across parts of the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio
Valley region during this period, within persistent ridging
encompassing much of the interior U.S. Modest, anticyclonic flow
around the northern periphery of the broader ridging is likely to be
maintained across the northern Great Basin through the Dakotas and
Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and adjacent portions of Ontario and
Quebec. It appears that mid-level ridging will also remain prominent
across much of the northeastern Pacific, though it may begin to
undergo some suppression.

Between the ridging, weak mid-level troughing is likely to linger
across the Pacific coast vicinity. As one much more significant
short wave trough and embedded cyclone in higher latitudes progress
slowly toward the Hudson Bay vicinity, it still appears that one
smaller-scale short wave perturbation emerging from the Pacific
Northwest may accelerate across and northeast of the mountains of
western Montana. However, models now generally indicate that a
slightly stronger perturbation may linger to the southwest, across
the northern intermountain region.

In lower levels, a cold front trailing the higher latitude cyclone
is forecast to advance across the international border into the
northern Great Plains late Tuesday into Tuesday night. It appears
another cold front may make further progress southward though the
southern Atlantic coast vicinity, well south of the mid-latitude westerlies.

...Northern Rockies/Great Plains into Upper Midwest...
Beneath the warm mid-level ridging, in the wake of a prior frontal
passage, seasonably moist boundary layer air is forecast to surge
from the middle Missouri Valley and adjacent Great Plains toward the
Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes, in advance of the front
approaching from the Canadian Prairies. This moisture appears
likely to once again contribute to moderate to large potential
instability within modestly deep pre-frontal surface troughing,
aided by insolation and the presence of generally steep tropospheric
lapse rates, though with warm, capping layers aloft.

Near the southern periphery of a belt of strengthening southwesterly
mid-level flow, it still appears that this environment will become
at least conditionally supportive of organized convective
development. However, south of the international border, forcing
for ascent to support convective development is likely to be mostly
tied to subtle perturbations progressing around the northern
periphery of the mid-level ridging, which remain uncertain at this time.

There does appear a general consensus that stronger boundary-layer
heating, within the lee surface troughing, will occur roughly in a
narrow corridor from the western South Dakota/Nebraska state border
vicinity through northeastern South Dakota/adjacent west central
Minnesota by late afternoon, with a zone of strengthening
differential heating extending east-southeastward across central
Minnesota. It is possible that the boundary intersection could
become a focus for isolated late afternoon supercell development,
with warm advection along the zone of differential surface heating,
aided by a strengthening southerly low-level jet impinging on it,
contributing to an upscale growing cluster of storms Tuesday
evening. However, due to the warm and capping air aloft, and
possible weak upper support for ascent, this remains rather uncertain.

With a more substantive short wave perturbation lingering back
across the northern intermountain region, models suggest that more
substantive destabilization is possible on moistening low-level
northeasterly to easterly flow into the higher terrain of south
central through southeastern Montana. Aided by the pronounced
veering of winds from near surface to mid-levels, it appears that
deep-layer shear may become conducive to isolated to widely
scattered supercell development late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

...South Carolina into Georgia...
Although lapse rates may be modest, high moisture content
along/ahead of the slowly southwestward advancing cold front may
support the development of modest CAPE and contribute to an
environment conducive to convection capable of producing a few
strong downbursts. It is also possible that unsaturated layers may
be sufficient to contribute to broader cold pools accompanied by
potentially damaging winds along the gust fronts.

..Kerr.. 07/21/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220451
SWODY2
SPC AC 220449

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Organizing clusters of storms posing a risk for severe wind are
possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley and Upper
Midwest into adjacent portions of the Great Lakes region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate further suppression of the northeastern
Pacific mid-level ridging, with flow becoming more zonal and
progressive across the British Columbia coast into the Canadian
Prairies during this period. Downstream, it still appears that
mid/upper flow will continue to intensify in a belt across Ontario
through Quebec, between a significant trough and cyclone slowly
migrating eastward across Hudson Bay and prominent ridging initially
centered over the Ohio Valley. A cold front trailing the cyclone is
still likely to advance more rapidly southward across the Great
Plains, to the lee of the Rockies, than across the Upper Midwest and
adjacent Great Lakes region.

This general evolution has been forecast for several days, but
spread has been evident within and among the various model output
concerning the synoptic and, particularly, sub-synoptic
developments, which persists in latest model runs. Among the
details which remain characterized by sizable spread, the cold
frontal progression through the Great Plains/mid Missouri Valley
vicinity, the strength of a short wave perturbation progressing out
of the Pacific Northwest through the central Canadian/U.S. border
vicinity, and weak mid/upper perturbations migrating around the
southern and northwestern periphery of the interior U.S. ridge,
across the Gulf coast and southern Great Plains toward upper
Mississippi Valley. These and other smaller-scale perturbations,
with low predictability at this time frame, will considerably impact
the convective potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
While it still appears that the southern fringe of the stronger
mid/upper westerlies will not extend south of a corridor from
southeastern Minnesota through northern Wisconsin and Upper
Michigan, models now generally indicate a belt of moderate
south-southwest flow (20-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) in the
lower/mid-levels will develop across the central Great Plains into
the Upper Midwest, ahead of the weak perturbation migrating around
the western periphery of the mid-level ridge.

Beneath modestly steep lapse rates, but with generally warm
profiles, it now appears increasingly probable that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, supportive of large mixed-layer
CAPE, will extend along the frontal zone from the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes as far southwest as central/northeastern
Nebraska by late afternoon. Coupled with the strength of the lower/mid-tropospheric flow, it appears probable that this
environment will become supportive of one or two organizing
thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to
severe wind gusts. However, based on late model output, including
available convection allowing guidance, the potential evolution
Wednesday through Wednesday night remains rather uncertain at this
time.

...Northern Rockies into Front Range...
In the presence of steep lapse rates, moistening easterly to
southeasterly near-surface flow, beneath modest westerly flow aloft,
may contribute to sufficient destabilization and shear to support
widely scattered strong to severe storms. This may include evolving
supercells near/just east of the higher terrain late Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 07/22/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230452
SWODY2
SPC AC 230451

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO...LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organized thunderstorm clusters could develop across
parts of the Great Lakes region Thursday, accompanied by potential
for producing damaging wind gusts. Additional scattered strong to
severe thunderstorm development is possible near the Rockies, from
eastern Wyoming toward the Black Hills, southward into northeastern
New Mexico.

...Discussion...
A belt of seasonably strong mid/upper westerlies across Ontario
through Quebec is forecast to continue a transition from broadly
anticyclonic to cyclonic during this period, to the south of a
significant mid-level low slowly migrating east-southeast of Hudson
Bay. On the southern periphery of this regime, an increasing
sheared perturbation, progressing around the northwestern periphery
of an initially prominent mid-level high overspreading the Ohio
Valley, may contribute to mid-level height falls as far south as the
Upper Midwest through Great Lakes region during the day Thursday,
into the Northeast overnight. Otherwise, mid/upper heights are
generally forecast to remain high across much of the southern
Rockies, and central/southern Great Plains into middle and southern
Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower levels, a segment of a cold front, initially across the central/northern Wisconsin through Upper Michigan vicinity, appears
likely to advance southeastward across much of the remainder of the
Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night. Southward
across the Missouri Valley into the southern Great Plains, the front
could be reinforced in some locations by convective outflow and
strengthening differential heating, otherwise it may tend to weaken
beneath the warm mid-level ridging.

...Great Lakes vicinity...
Although thermodynamic profiles are likely to be relatively warm,
with generally modest to weak mid-level lapse rates, models suggest
that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may still
support sizable CAPE with pre-frontal insolation. Aided by 20-40+
kt west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, and weak forcing
for ascent ahead of the mid-level trough axis overspreading the
region, the environment may become conducive to the evolution of one
or two organizing clusters with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts, Thursday into Thursday evening.

...Rockies/Great Plains...
Models suggest that peak afternoon mixed-layer CAPE will be a bit
more modest along the remnant surface front across the lower
Missouri Valley and central Great Plains into Texas Panhandle
vicinity, and within moist low-level easterly flow across the high
plains into the Rockies. Vertical shear is likely to also remain
modest to weak, within rather weak deep-layer mean flow. However,
at least modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may
contribute to thermodynamic profiles supportive of localized
downbursts and developing cold pools with gusty winds in
thunderstorm activity late Thursday afternoon and evening. Some
hail may also be possible near the higher terrain from north central
Colorado into northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota.

Given the higher probabilities/coverage of storms indicated by
convection allowing guidance, likely aided by orographic forcing,
and at least somewhat cooler mid-level thermodynamic profiles,
severe probabilities still appear a bit better near the Rockies.
Across the Great Plains into lower Missouri Valley, due to the
anticipated marginal nature and sparser coverage of strong
thunderstorm development, severe probabilities are being maintained
at less than 5 percent.

..Kerr.. 07/23/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 240459
SWODY2
SPC AC 240457

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, and perhaps a developing
line, may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New
England and the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. The development of
an organized cluster of storms with potential to produce strong to
severe wind gusts is also possible across North Dakota by Friday evening.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that fairly significant troughing within
the westerlies will dig across Quebec, northern New England and the
Canadian Maritimes during this period. Weaker troughing is also
forecast to dig into portions of the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast, as well as inland across California through the
Great Basin. Across much of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley,
and Great Lakes into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard,
mid/upper heights are likely to remain generally high. However, it
still appears that a subtle perturbation progressing across and east
of the northern Rockies could suppress mid-level heights across
North Dakota and adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late
Friday through Friday night.

Latest model output appears increasingly suggestive that a notable
MCV may evolve within the weak flow across the central Great Plains
by early Friday, before migrating slowly northeastward, with a
number of weaker convectively generated or enhanced perturbations
downstream, across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. But, this remains much more uncertain at
the present time.

In lower levels, a cold front is likely to advance across much of
the Northeast, while its trailing flank continues to stall, weaken
and perhaps slowly shift northward across the Ohio Valley through
central Great Plains.

...New England into northern Mid Atlantic...
Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential storm
coverage and the risk of severe weather for Friday. How far south
the cold front advances into New England before the boundary-layer
is able to destabilize appreciably also remains unclear. However,
the front across New England, and the pre-frontal trough across the
northern Mid Atlantic, probably will become the focus of at least
scattered thunderstorm development, aided by forcing associated with
the digging mid-level trough.

Lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may not become particularly
steep, but seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting
ahead of the cold front may still contribute to moderate mixed-layer
CAPE with daytime heating. In the presence of 20-40+ kt westerly
flow in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading much of the region, the
environment may become conducive to organized convection, perhaps
including a couple of supercells, and upscale growing southeastward
propagating clusters or a developing line accompanied by potentially
damaging wind gusts.

Due to lingering uncertainties, severe probabilities are being
maintained at 5 percent, but it is still possible that severe
probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period.

...North Dakota...
The NAM, in particular, continues to generate a notable convective
perturbation across North Dakota, mainly late Friday into Friday
night. This is supported by other model output to an extent, and is
generally focused where lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection might
become maximized by Friday evening, on the leading edge of a
northward advecting plume of warm and increasingly capping air
around the 700 mb level. Beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse
rates, it appears that low-level moistening will contribute to
moderate large CAPE supportive of vigorous convection, with
thermodynamic profiles conducive to downbursts and a strengthening
cold pool as forcing for ascent contributes to consolidating convection.

...Remainder of Great Plains into Ohio Valley...
Beneath the mid-level ridging, destabilization across the high
plains, and along the remnant front across the central Great Plains
through Ohio Valley, may become supportive of widely scattered
vigorous thunderstorm development. Due to generally warm mid/upper thermodynamic profiles and weak flow/shear, localized damaging wind
gust appears the primary potentially severe hazard. It is not yet
clear that the coverage of any such activity will become sufficient
to support introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities.

..Kerr.. 07/24/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 250602
SWODY2
SPC AC 250600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER GREAT LAKES...NORTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging
wind gusts are possible Saturday afternoon/evening in parts of the
Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. Isolated to widely scattered severe
storms may also occur from the Northern Rockies, central High
Plains, and northern Plains.

...Dakotas...
A belt of stronger mid-level flow will exist near the Canadian
border and should extend into parts of North Dakota. A modest
surface trough/low will likely be situated in parts of the western
Dakotas with a very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) to the
east of this feature. 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE appear probable along
with 35-45 kts of effective shear. Beneath the upper ridge, forcing
for ascent will not be strong. Capping may be enough to hinder storm development--a scenario suggested by the ECMWF. However, there does
appear to be a weak perturbation emanating from the central Rockies
that could promote storm development near the surface trough/low, as
suggested by the NAM/GFS. Should this occur, organized supercells
would be possible early in the convective cycle. Large hail and
severe gusts would be the expected hazards. Large
temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and weak low-level shear
would likely promote outflow dominance and potential for upscale
growth. This would mean a transition to a broader threat of severe winds.

...Upper Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...
A convectively induced MCV is expected to be moving into northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin early Saturday morning. This activity is
generally expected to be sub-severe given limited buoyancy. Ahead of
this feature, as well as along the outflow boundary this activity
leaves behind, strong heating of a moist airmass will support MLCAPE
in excess of 3000 J/kg in parts of central Illinois. Farther east,
MLCAPE may be near 2000-2500 J/kg. Shear will generally be weak away
from the MCV/surface boundary, but 30-35 kts of effective shear
along the boundary appears possible. Marginally organized storms
will have some potential to produce damaging downburst winds. The
main uncertainties are the track of the MCV and where the outflow
will be during the afternoon. The general trend in guidance has been
for the more favorable environment to be farther south and
probabilities have been adjusted to reflect this.

...Central High Plains...
Strong heating near the surface trough and aid from a shortwave
trough moving through the Four Corners should allow isolated storm
development by late afternoon. A modest increase in shear across the
surface trough/terrain will also occur. With large
temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, isolated severe winds
would be possible. A cluster or two could evolve out of this
activity, but where this will occur is uncertain.

...Northern Rockies...
Stronger mid-level flow will exist across this region.
Moisture/buoyancy will be limited, especially with westward extent.
However, widely scattered to scattered convection will likely
develop within the terrain and move northeastward. How far northeast
the strongest activity progresses is not clear given capping in
parts of central/eastern Montana. However, strong to marginally
severe gusts appear possible with this activity given the deeply
mixed boundary layer.

..Wendt.. 07/25/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 260558
SWODY2
SPC AC 260557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the
Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic and New England region.

...Dakotas into Upper Midwest...
Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection
within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress
into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of
this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors
for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest
this activity will most likely move through northern parts of
Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could
occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds
into Arrowhead.

To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface
trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity.
This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the
Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is
forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE).
The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear.
Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will
be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a
mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength
and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be
favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the
above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor
of greatest risk.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England...
A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these
regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears
probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating
and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern
New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though
shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In
the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be
able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some
clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear.
Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a
threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if
confidence increases in where clustering will occur.

..Wendt.. 07/26/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 270557
SWODY2
SPC AC 270555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into the
Dakotas and Upper Midwest Monday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Strong mid-level flow will continue in the northern Plains along the
crest of the upper ridge in the central CONUS. More modest mid-level
winds will also extend westward into the northern Rockies and
portions of the northern Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front
will be positioned from northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A
surface low will deepen in South Dakota/Nebraska. A theta-e
boundary/pseudo warm front will extend from the low into Minnesota
Wisconsin. A few subtle shortwaves are expected to move into the
northern Plains as they progress along the periphery of the upper ridge.

...South Dakota into Upper Mississippi Valley...
While the forecast remains complex and there are still some
uncertainties to be resolved, there is sufficient confidence in
storm development and coverage in parts of central/eastern South
Dakota to increase severe probabilities. Strong heating to the west
of the surface trough/low, the southward advancing cold front, and
subtle lift from mid-level shortwave troughs suggest storm
development is more probable than not. Both CAMs as well as
mesoscale/global models show signals for this scenario. There is
still some potential for storms to develop farther northwest in
southeastern Montana and progress along the boundary into greater
buoyancy, but this solution is rather uncertain. There is additional uncertainty as to how far east a greater severe threat will extend.
The NAM/ECMWF/GFS and a couple of CAMs show an MCS moving through central/southern Minnesota late Sunday into Monday morning. Given
the unknown amount of airmass recovery that will occur in this area,
Marginal risk probabilities will remain.

Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
south of the cold front. With 35-50 kts of effective shear, storms
will be organized. Initial development near the surface low will
likely be supercellular for a period, though a couple of brief
supercells could also occur along the cold front. These storms would
bring the greatest risk for hail and perhaps a tornado. With some
larger temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface, along with boundary-parallel shear and eventual southward movement of the
front, upscale growth will likely occur fairly quickly in the
convective cycle. Potential exists for a severe MCS to develop and
move along the boundary. A swath of severe gusts would be possible
should this occur.

...Montana into western Dakotas...
Modest surface moisture will be pushed into the northern Rockies.
Storm development is likely within parts of central Montana over the
terrain. With cool temperatures aloft, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is
possible during the afternoon. Effective shear will be near 30 kts
farther west but will increase with eastward extent. A well-mixed
boundary layer will promote severe wind potential, though isolated
marginal hail could occur with the stronger storms.

In eastern Montana, a weak surface trough intersecting with the cold
front may serve as a focus for convective development during the
early afternoon. Storms would likely be outflow dominant with a
primary hazard of severe wind gusts. The question will be whether a
more organized cluster can evolve out of this activity and progress southeastward along the boundary. Confidence is too low in this
particular outcome to increase severe probabilities.

...Lower Ohio Valley into Mid-South...
There is a conditional risk for marginally organized storm clusters
associated with an MCV from Sunday convection in the Upper Midwest.
Given the uncertain position and intensity of the MCV, highlights
will be withheld at this juncture.

..Wendt.. 07/27/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280601
SWODY2
SPC AC 280559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the
central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and
Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday.

...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley vicinity...
The forecast for these areas is the most uncertain. Based on current
guidance, it seems probable that much of Iowa/Minnesota will have
been impacted by outflow from an MCS on Monday night. Consequently,
there has been limited signal for development this far east during
Tuesday afternoon. Marginal severe probabilities will be maintained for now.

In southwestern Nebraska, a surface low is expected to develop. This
surface low will likely be weaker than on Monday. With more limited
mid-level ascent, low-level convergence, and warm temperatures
aloft, it is not clear whether convection will form during the
afternoon. Though not strong, there will be an increase in the
low-level jet during the evening. This could lead to some
development during early evening, but, again, there is very limited
model support for this.

The scenario with the most support is for convection to develop over
the Laramie Range and eventually progress eastward. However, this
development and eventual move off the terrain appears as though it
will occur further into the evening. This is likely due to lingering
inhibition in the Plains. For that reason, increasing wind
probabilities will be withheld this outlook.

...Montana into the central High Plains...
Confidence in storm initiation is highest within these locations.
Moisture pushed up against the terrain will favors widely scattered
to scattered convection by the afternoon. Effective shear will be
around 40 kts. Storms will at least be briefly supercellular after
initiation. However, with a drier boundary layer in place away from
the terrain, storms will tend to become outflow dominant quickly.
Furthermore, inhibition is expected to remain at lower elevations
which may mean storms will only be severe for a brief period.
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Lower MI/IN/OH vicinity...
Given the potential for a strong MCS and related MCV to develop on
Monday night, there is some possibility for this activity to carry
over into Tuesday morning/afternoon. Guidance continues to show the
overnight convection dissipating. Shear will also become weaker as
these remnant track south/east. However, with a very moist airmass
in place across portions of these areas, trends in guidance will
need to be monitored for a possible increase in severe
probabilities.

..Wendt.. 07/28/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 281726
SWODY2
SPC AC 281724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern Montana into the
central High Plains as well as parts of the Mid-Missouri and
Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will extend from
portions of the Dakotas into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A somewhat
complex surface pattern is forecast. A low will likely be located
over the southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity. A front
will extend from the low northeast into central MN/northern WI
Tuesday morning. Outflow from a severe MCS in the Day 1/Monday
period may be located across portions of the Mid-MS Valley, but this
is uncertain. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside to the
east of the low and in the vicinity of these surface boundaries,
with the corridor of greatest instability expected to extend from
northeast CO eastward across NE and into IA/northern MO/northeast
KS.

Behind the surface front across portions of WY/MT into the Dakotas,
boundary layer moisture will be maintained with dewpoints in the mid
50s to low 60s. This will support weak to moderate instability by
afternoon.

...Northeast CO into NE and the Mid-MO Valley/central IA...

This region will be displaced to the south from the belt of stronger
mid/upper northwesterly flow. Nevertheless, strong instability and
low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development during
the afternoon near the surface low and northeastward along the
surface front. Vertically veering wind profiles will support
effective shear magnitudes in the 25-40 kt range, with initial
supercells possible. With time, clustering is expected. One or more
line segments or possibly a severe MCS could develop and move east
across central/eastern NE into western/central IA and vicinity.
Severe/damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but isolated
hail may also occur, especially early in thunderstorm evolution.

...MT/WY into western SD/NE Panhandle...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon in the
moist post-frontal upslope regime. These areas will experience
better shear, with stronger mid/upper westerly flow compared to
points further southeast. Forecast soundings across eastern WY
indicated effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be
possible, with elongated/straight hodographs also noted. Steep
midlevel lapse rates large instability through the cold layer aloft,
in combination with favorable shear profiles, suggests cells
producing isolated large hail will be possible, particularly from
eastern WY into adjacent parts of MT/SD/NE. Further northwest into
southern MT, instability will be lower and storm coverage more
isolated. Still any storms that do develop will pose a risk for
marginal hail. Where stronger heating occurs across the region,
steepening low-level lapse rates could also support strong to severe
wind gusts.

..ND...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop as a shortwave
impulse migrates through west/northwesterly flow aloft. Buoyancy
will be fairly weak this far north with only modest boundary-layer
moisture persisting behind the surface front and generally warm
temperatures aloft through about 600 mb. Nevertheless, strong
mid/upper flow will support organized cells. Elongated/straight
hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt suggests isolated
marginal hail will be possible with any storms that develop.

..Leitman.. 07/28/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 290557
SWODY2
SPC AC 290555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi
Valley vicinity to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England,
and the northern/central High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central High Plains Vicinity...
A mid-level shortwave trough will dig slowly southward across
southern Montana and into northern Wyoming on Wednesday. South of
this trough, mid-level flow will strengthen to around 30 knots amid
moderate instability with steep mid-level lapse rates. Some
supercells may be possible with a threat for large hail and severe
wind gusts. The number of organized supercells is the primary
question. At this time, it appears the threat may be relatively
isolated. However, if more than a few organized supercells appear
likely, greater probabilities may be needed.

...Midwest...
Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from
northern Missouri into northern Illinois. As temperatures warm into
the 80s with dewpoints in the 70s by late morning, moderate to
strong instability is forecast with minimal inhibition. This should
allow ongoing convection (or renewed development along residual
outflow) to persist eastward through the day. The greatest threat
will be along the frontal zone where mid-level lapse rates will be
steeper and shear will be somewhat stronger. The narrow corridor of
favorable overlap between the greatest shear and instability with
questions about storm mode preclude higher probabilities at this time.

...Northeast...
Hot temperatures will develop across the Northeast on Wednesday with
moderate instability expected. Moderate mid-level flow will
overspread this region along the southern periphery of a strong
mid-level trough across southeastern Canada. This stronger shear may
permit a few supercell storms with a threat for large hail.
Elsewhere, isolated strong downburst winds amid the strong heating
will be the primary threat.

..Bentley.. 07/29/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300602
SWODY2
SPC AC 300601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts
are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and
storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the
Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the central
CONUS on Thursday. A large trough across southeast Canada will shift
southeast across the Northeast with moderate mid-level flow
overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. A surface cold front will extend
from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains and then into the
central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast to develop
across the central High Plains with very steep mid-level lapse
rates. Moderately strong mid/upper-level flow will provide ample
shear. Therefore, as storms develop across the higher terrain and
intensify as they encounter the greater instability east of the
Mountains, they are also expected to become more organized, with the
potential for some supercell structures. The steep mid-level lapse
rates, relatively low freezing level, and favorably located buoyancy
within the hail growth zone will all support the potential for
isolated large hail. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer will
also support some damaging wind gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Hot conditions are forecast ahead of a surface front in the
Mid-Atlantic with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the
mid 60s. This will result in moderate to strong instability by early
afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along the front by early
afternoon and organize into a broken line. Isolated damaging wind
gusts are possible from these storms during the afternoon to early
evening due to a combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer and
high moisture content (2+" PWAT).

..Bentley.. 07/30/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 310602
SWODY2
SPC AC 310600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the
central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly
stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave
trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the
Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the
northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic
by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build
southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to
near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday.

...Southeast...
Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on
Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be
weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe
weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong
instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support
the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging
wind gusts.

...Central High Plains...
Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early
afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the
higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for
strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during
the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger
flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more
organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail
will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and
very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will
also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by
forecast soundings.

..Bentley.. 07/31/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 311718
SWODY2
SPC AC 311717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible
throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on
Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the
strongest storms.

...High Plains...

An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on
Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest
westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse
rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor
of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western
SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support
thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical
shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and
vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few
supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in
steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts
also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in
subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area.

...Southeast...

An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast
on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and
much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a
very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC
into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is
expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC
into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+
inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are
possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the
southeast NC/SC coastal plain.

..Leitman.. 07/31/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010545
SWODY2
SPC AC 010543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
are expected in the High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong
storms are possible across parts of the Southeast.

...High Plains...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central
Rockies on Saturday. Ahead of the ridge, mid-level flow will be
northwesterly across much of the High Plains. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be located across the Great Plains. Moderate
instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this
moist airmass by afternoon. As surface heating takes place during
the day, scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain of
the central Rockies, and spread eastward into the central High
Plains. A cluster or line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening.

Model consensus on Saturday suggests that the strongest instability
will develop from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwest
Nebraska, with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
NAM forecast soundings near Goodland, Kansas in the early evening
have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. From
the surface to 700 mb, the temperature profile is nearly dry
adiabatic, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are around 30
degrees F. This environment should produce high cloud bases, with a
potential for isolated damaging gusts. Supercells and/or short
multicell line segments will be possible, and isolated large hail
will be possible with rotating cells.

...Southeast...
A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf Coast states on
Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be the lower to mid 70s
F across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida. Low-level
convergence is forecast to be maximized across this same area. As
surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will develop in the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across
southern Georgia have inverted-V profiles with very steep lapse
rates from the surface to 850 mb. This could be enough for isolated
damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the mid to
late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 08/01/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 021727
SWODY2
SPC AC 021726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening in parts of the central/southern High Plains.
Additional strong to severe storms are probable in central/eastern
Oregon during the afternoon.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Though uncertainty is highest within these regions, a conditionally
favorable environment for supercells is expected during the
afternoon. Much will depend on the evolution of convection within
Kansas and the southern High Plains and where it will be located
Sunday morning. Early convection within Kansas is expected to be
weaker, but recovery along the western flank of its outflow is
possible. A stronger signal exists for a cluster/MCS to be ongoing
in the southern High Plains. The outflow from this activity could
provide a focus for a corridor of greater severe risk during the
afternoon. With a very steep lapse rate plume extending into the
High Plains, MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg is probable by the afternoon
with buoyancy diminishing with eastward extent. A shortwave
trough/MCV will enhanced mid-level winds. Effective shear values of
35-50 kts are probable. As mentioned, supercells would be likely
should storms develop. Large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a
tornado (given augmented low-level shear near the outflow boundary)
would be possible. Model guidance shows these areas to be between
two shortwave perturbations during the afternoon leading to
uncertain forcing. There is also the uncertain location/timing of
early convection and its subsequent impact on the boundary layer.
These factors preclude any increase in severe probabilities.

...Central High Plains...
A weak surface low is expected to develop in western South Dakota. A southwest-northwest oriented boundary will extend from this feature
into adjacent Wyoming/Nebraska. Some storms will initiate within the
higher terrain of Wyoming or the Black Hills and move into greater
surface moisture. Isolated severe winds and marginal hail are
possible. Additional development is also possible along the surface
boundary itself. Though buoyancy will be greater, shear will be
weaker with eastward extent. A similar wind/hail threat will exist
with these storms. Subtle mid-level height rises should keep the
strongest storms isolated.

...Oregon...
Low/mid 40s F dewpoints are expected to be maintained into the
afternoon across Oregon east of the Cascades. With the approach of
the upper-level trough, 25-35 kts of effective shear will be
present. Scattered storms will initiate within the higher terrain
and generally progress northeastward. Inverted-v thermodynamic
profiles and the potential for semi-organized clusters/linear
segments will promote a risk for severe wind gusts. Small to
marginally severe hail also may occur with the strongest storm
cores.

..Wendt.. 08/02/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 030805
SWODY2
SPC AC 030804

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED LINE IN NORTHEAST

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Monday from parts of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and
central High Plains.

...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the
Pacific Northwest on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward into the northern Rockies, as upslope easterly flow
remains over the northern High Plains. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon near the
front, and in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. These
storms will likely increase in coverage by early evening, moving
eastward into the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints across
much central and eastern Montana are forecast to be in the upper 40s
and lower 50s F, which will contribute to the development of weak
instability by afternoon. Near the forecast pocket of instability,
forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40
knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates
near 8 C/km, will likely support an localized severe threat. The
stronger rotating cells could produce hail. Isolated severe gusts
will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that have
some organization.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level ridge will remain over the central Rockies on Monday, as
a trough remains nearly stationary across northern Minnesota. At the
surface, a north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture with
dewpoints in the 60s F, will be in place from central Kansas
northward into the eastern Dakotas. Moderate instability is forecast
to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass, from
western Nebraska into southwestern and central South Dakota. As
destabilization takes place during the day, isolated thunderstorm
development will be possible, mainly in areas where low-level
convergence becomes maximized. Across much of the region, 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range. This will
support an isolated threat for severe gusts. Hail will also be
possible in the central High Plains, where mid-level lapse rates are
forecast to be steep.

..Broyles.. 08/03/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 040558
SWODY2
SPC AC 040557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated
large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern
Plains on Tuesday.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on
Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the
day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a
moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains.
By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is
forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western
Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist
sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500
to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western
South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to
the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation
expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should
spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern
North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe
threat appears likely.

Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern
South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in
the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km.
This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells
that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a
larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid
evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However,
severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with
southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent.

Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward
into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible
during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the
combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less
favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any
severe threat localized.

..Broyles.. 08/04/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050557
SWODY2
SPC AC 050555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be
possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday.

...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be
in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily
westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the
eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear
likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are
expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as
moderate to strong instability develops further to the west.
Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this
unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient.
However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due
to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a
thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the
instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary
threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated
nature of the threat.

..Broyles.. 08/05/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 060603
SWODY2
SPC AC 060601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and
evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and
severe gusts will be the primary threats.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern
Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across
the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in
western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western
North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable
airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface
dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the
lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of
strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas
by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place
near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the
northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe
threat appears likely.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive,
with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A
potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in
the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An
isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is
expected to persist into the mid to late evening.

Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into
South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this
reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However,
isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level
convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could
develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and
severe gusts.

...Montana...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on
Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the
northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable
airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana,
where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500
J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain
of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into
the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms
appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to
late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the
instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place
over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the
mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe
storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late
afternoon and evening.

..Broyles.. 08/06/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 080527
SWODY2
SPC AC 080525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across portions of the
central to southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move slowly eastward across southern SK and MB,
with moderate cyclonic flow aloft moving from the northern Plains
into the upper MS Valley. As this occurs, an upper ridge over the
eastern Great Lakes will be move toward southern QB and the
Northeast. Well south of the upper low, modest westerlies aloft will
remain over the central Rockies.

At the surface, low pressure will move from southern MB into western
ON, with a boundary stalling roughly from the upper MS Valley to KS.
Ahead of this front, a moist and unstable air mass will remain with
60s and 70s F dewpoints.

...IA into WI and surrounding areas...
The leading mid/upper speed max will move across the upper MS Valley
relatively early in the day, with midlevel drying across much of MN
into western WI. Heating will occur near the stalled front, with
robust moisture leading to 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE by late afternoon. Complicating the forecast is the possibility of residual/midday
storms, which could potentially overturn the air mass prematurely.
However, in general, southwest low-level flow should maintain areas
of moderate instability, with a late day increase in storm coverage
and intensity. Corridors of damaging winds appear most probable,
with substantial outflow.

...Central High Plains...
Surface winds will veer to east/southeast during the day, with 50s F
dewpoints backing west toward the Front Range. Steep lapse rates
will lead to strong instability, especially from southeast CO west/northwestward. Isolated cells capable of large hail are
forecast, with perhaps a brief tornado risk during the evening as
low-level SRH increases. Capping and uncertainty in storm coverage
currently precludes higher severe probabilities.

..Jewell.. 08/08/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090558
SWODY2
SPC AC 090556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern
Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may
occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern
areas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist
across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow
aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great
Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb
temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and
OK.

At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the
Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will
stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with
eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm
outflow.

Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will
be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front
and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000
J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will
be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind
gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds
increase at 850 mb.

The other area will be along the Front Range during the late
afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into
southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime
over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time,
activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts
possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100555
SWODY2
SPC AC 100554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late
afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas
Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur
over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley...
Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains,
with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will
extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast
surface winds from KS into northwest TX early.

As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast,
with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are
likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be
uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few
longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also
produce locally severe gusts through early evening.

...ND into northern MN...
A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel
vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day.
This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough
which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for
ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath
the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells
may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 101720
SWODY2
SPC AC 101718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe
wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas
South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into
northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher
latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to
continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the
international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes,
during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one
initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the
Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes
region by late Monday night.

Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much
of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies,
between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the
Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal
zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is
likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri
Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally
continuing to weaken through the period.

Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be
maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across
much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the
north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri
Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing
cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night.

...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes...
The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just
north of the weakening front, may provide support for the
development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation
Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively
generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this
could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but
the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain
rather sparse in nature.

One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the
boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas
South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper
mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of
warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus
within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse,
within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support
for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating
thunderstorm cluster.

Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output,
suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection
over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the
lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday
night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested
by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving
cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point,
however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much
uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly
large false alarm area.

...Northern Great Plains...
A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps
the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening
southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a
corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon.
Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear,
downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the
environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development
capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong
surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe
limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening
across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota,
where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep
lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting
and evaporative cooling in downdrafts.

..Kerr.. 08/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110532
SWODY2
SPC AC 110531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great
Lakes region Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving
across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with
attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through
00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result
in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas.

While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of
strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating
may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across
eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very
strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep.
However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as
cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late.

Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains
beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest
and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development.

..Jewell.. 08/11/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120529
SWODY2
SPC AC 120528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied
by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of
central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening.

...Discussion...
As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern
Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a
secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level
winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of
40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD.

Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of
60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with
strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough.

Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills
and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail
risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few
severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become
a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS.
As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe
activity withing the broader zone of convection.

..Jewell.. 08/12/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 130552
SWODY2
SPC AC 130550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from
eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and
evening. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of South
Dakota into western Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on
Thursday, with the primary upper low well north into Canada. The
southern periphery of this wave will move across ND and northern MN
late day and overnight, with minimal cooling aloft and increasing
mid to upper level winds of 40-50 kt.

At the surface, a trough will extend from central ND into western SD
during the afternoon, where a surface low will exist within the warm
plume. Southeast winds will bring moisture northward ahead of the
front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of 40-50
kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and low-level jet
increases to 30-40 kt.

Storms are likely to form near 00Z along the cold front over
central/eastern ND and extending into northern SD, and progress
across northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as
storm mode should be cellular, but areas of severe gusts may occur.
Steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability may also yield hail
over 2.00" diameter. Strong heating into central SD and western NE
will likely yield isolated strong to severe storms as well with
brief hail and locally strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/13/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 140541
SWODY2
SPC AC 140539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern
Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday.

...Synopsis......
An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday,
with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough
departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to
lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin.

At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD
border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large
area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE
as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring
moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY.

...Eastern SD into MN and western WI...
Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm
advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This
regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust
potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores
producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the
initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area.

...Black Hills and Vicinity...
Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as
winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s
dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt
midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight
hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While
storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging.

..Jewell.. 08/14/2025
$$
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