ACUS01 KWNS 061254
SWODY1
SPC AC 061253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of
2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible.

..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains...
A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest
U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains
this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to
moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of
deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated
thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent
with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms
will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater
in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is
expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly
significant, becomes a greater concern.

Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly
mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters
will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...
A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and
the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies
will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest
large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse,
combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will
support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing
isolated severe wind gusts.

...Maine...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in
association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability
should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly
mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient
supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the
primary severe hazard.

...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity...
Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving
north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for
details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells
may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level
shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of
the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple
tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop
within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability.

..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 081244
SWODY1
SPC AC 081243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of
the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into
evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies
centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance
or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy
developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the
Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may
contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of
sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates
and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage
is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions
of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery
of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several
low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with
modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High
Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence
renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and
middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging
winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across
the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains
where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending
guidance/observational trends later this morning.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 131231
SWODY1
SPC AC 131230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early
tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest,
south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
Glancingly influenced by the Great Lakes/Ontario/western Quebec
upper-level trough, pre-frontal convergence/terrain will contribute
to scattered thunderstorm development into this afternoon within a
moist air mass. Most storms will tend to remain disorganized/pulse
in nature across the Mid-Atlantic. However, modestly stronger
mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells
particularly across central/northern portions of New York and
Pennsylvania, where a Slight Risk appears warranted for a somewhat
focused corridor of severe storm potential. Wind/tree damage will be
the primary hazard regionally.

...Florida...
With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central
Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state,
with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development expected to be
most prominent across the eastern half of the Peninsula. Amid
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small
hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be
possible from mid-afternoon to early evening.

...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley...
One or more MCVs should persist generally eastward across the
Ozarks, potentially maintaining a modestly enhanced mid/low-level
flow field through the diurnal heating cycle. This could influence
organized storms this afternoon through early evening, potentially
including a few supercells and linear segments. Damaging winds will
be possible, and brief tornado potential cannot be ruled out.

...South-central/East Texas...
A nearly-stationary MCS is ongoing this morning across south-central
Texas with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for
details). Potential MCV influences and composite outflow and
differential heating may contribute to strong/severe thunderstorm
development into peak heating, mainly on the southern/eastern
periphery of the early morning MCS. Isolated wet microbursts capable
of wind damage would be the most probable severe hazard aside from rainfall-related aspects.

...Upper Midwest...
In the wake of a mid-level trough passage this morning, a strong
mid-level jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces.
Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should
shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern
Dakotas to western Minnesota by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough
approaching northeast Minnesota to the Mid-Missouri Valley. The
northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for
potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest
mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy
plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front,
should modulate overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large
hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible
from late afternoon until around sunset.

...Southwest...
As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great
Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern New Mexico,
turning to easterlies over southeast Arizona. Widespread storms are
expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south
to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in
buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High
Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over New Mexico.
Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into
southeast Arizona.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/13/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 141237
SWODY1
SPC AC 141235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the northern Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this
afternoon into tonight.

...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota...
As an upper trough digs southward from British Columbia to the
northern Rockies today, a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will
extend along/near the international border from MT to MN. At the
surface, a front should also extend generally west-east across this
region, displaced slightly south of the mid-level jet. The western
portion of this front (across MT/ND) is forecast to move southward
tonight as a surface low gradually develops/consolidates near the
MT/ND/SD border.

Forcing for ascent will remain weak for much of the day as mid-level
heights remain neutral. Still, high-based convection may develop
across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by this
afternoon/evening. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest
westerly mid-level flow present, some of these thunderstorms could
pose an isolated threat for severe winds/hail as they move eastward
through the evening. The potential for surface-based convection to
develop in proximity to the front remains unclear. A conditionally
favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist near the
front, but weak forcing and increasing MLCIN/warmer temperatures
aloft with southward extent cast considerable uncertainty regarding
overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening. A better
chance exists for elevated thunderstorms to occur tonight as the
upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. This activity could
pose an isolated threat for mainly severe hail given ample MUCAPE
and strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer.

...Eastern States...
As a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward from the OH
Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected to initially develop across the
higher terrain of these regions. While mid-level flow and related
deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of
this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized
clusters. With daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass,
moderate instability should develop across the lower terrain east of
the Blue Ridge/Appalachians. Modestly steepened low-level lapse
rates should also aid in some enhancement to convective downdrafts,
with isolated strong to damaging winds possible as thunderstorms
spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening.

Farther south across parts of FL and southeast GA, convection should
develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading
south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. This activity will be associated with a weak
low/mid-level trough currently off the FL Atlantic Coast. While
low-level and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain modest,
some enhancement to mid/upper-level north-northeasterlies could
promote multiple clusters capable of producing isolated strong to
severe winds given moderate to locally strong instability.

...Mid-South...
A remnant MCV will drift east-northeastward today over the Mid-South
and vicinity while gradually weakening. Modest enhancement to the
low/mid-level flow attendant to this feature could support an
isolated damaging wind threat with convection that develops this
afternoon. But, with deep-layer shear expected to remain weak, the
overall severe threat will likely remain quite isolated/marginal.

...Arizona...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great
Basin today. On the periphery of this anticyclone, around 20-25 kt
of northeasterly mid-level flow may aid thunderstorms that develop
over the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM in moving
southwestward this afternoon/evening across lower elevations. A very
deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated severe wind gusts
with this activity, even though instability and deep-layer shear
will likely remain weak.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/14/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 241232
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible from parts
of the Great Lakes to the central and southern Plains, mainly this
afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms will also pose a risk
of hail and severe wind gusts over portions of the northern and
central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow will be maintained today
between an upper trough progressing slowly eastward over central
Canada and the north-central CONUS, and upper ridging across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Multiple mid-level MCVs evident on
satellite and radar should move generally east-northeastward across
parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes today. At the surface, a
convectively reinforced front will be draped from Ontario/Quebec
southwestward to the southern Plains. This front will likely serve
as a focused for additional scattered to numerous thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, some of which could become strong to severe
on an isolated basis.

...Great Lakes into the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains...
A moist and rather unstable airmass will exist along/ahead of the
front today, as diurnal heating aids in the gradual steepening of
low-level lapse rates. Stronger mid-level flow and related
deep-layer shear should be present across parts of MI and vicinity.
Some enhancement to the low/mid-level winds and modest ascent
associated with an MCV over northeast WI this morning may also aid
in thunderstorm development and organization downstream into parts
of northern Lower MI by early afternoon. This area appears to have
the best combination of forecast instability and shear, and any
thunderstorms which can form here could become severe while posing a
threat for both isolated hail and damaging winds. However, low-level
flow along/near the front is generally expected to remain veered to southwesterly, which should limit low-level convergence to some
extent. Therefore, confidence in overall coverage of severe
convection remains too low to include greater severe probabilities
across northern Lower MI at this time.

Mid-level flow and effective bulk shear values will decrease with
southward extent across the Midwest into the southern Plains, away
from any remnant MCV influences. This should tend to limit updraft
organization with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across
these regions. Still, some potential should exist for loosely
organized clusters given the linear low-level forcing. And with
steep low-level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability, some
of this convection may be capable of producing strong to locally
severe winds through the early evening hours before eventually
weakening with the loss of daytime heating.

...High Plains...
Moderate instability should develop across parts of the
northern/central High Plains this afternoon. Large-scale ascent will
be weak behind a departing mid-level shortwave trough. Even so,
convective development should occur near the adjacent higher terrain
this afternoon. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support some
updraft organization. Initially discrete cells may pose an isolated
threat for hail. Some outflow amalgamation/mergers could eventually
occur, with a threat of strong to locally severe gusts spreading
eastward into the evening before convection eventually weakens.
Farther south across portions of the southern High Plains, scattered
to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop this
afternoon/early evening. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across
this region, but localized strong to severe outflow gusts may still
be possible.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/24/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 301216
SWODY1
SPC AC 301215

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from
the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across
Wyoming and Colorado.

...Mid MS Valley...
A long-lived linear MCS is tracking eastward across parts of IA/MO
this morning. This activity is expected to persist through much of
the day and affect parts of IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Ample low-level
moisture is present across this region, and the convectively-aided
shortwave trough associated with the MCS will provide sufficient
vertical shear for some concern for a few severe wind gusts through
the day. An upgrade to SLGT risk was considered for this region,
but given the expansive shield of clouds ahead of the storms,
coupled with a consensus of model guidance showing limited intensity
to the storms, chose to maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate at 1630z.

...High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, ample mid-level moisture is present across the
central Rockies into WY. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms
by early afternoon from parts of central CO into central/western WY.
Winds aloft are slightly stronger than yesterday, which will
provide an uptick in vertical shear and convective organization.
Hail and gusty winds will be possible with storms that form over the
higher terrain and spread into the adjacent plains through the
afternoon and early evening.

...Northeast...
A weak surface cold front will sag southward across New England and
parts of NY/PA today, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass
expected ahead of the boundary. Low-level convergence along the
front will be weak, with only widely scattered thunderstorm coverage
expected. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level
lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least
small hail in the storms that form this afternoon.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/30/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 031251
SWODY1
SPC AC 031249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Large to very large hail and damaging winds will be possible this
afternoon and evening over parts of the central/southern High
Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are probable in the
Northwest during the afternoon.

...Southern Plains...
A decaying MCS is currently moving through the eastern TX Panhandle
and western OK. Expectation is for this system to continue
south-southeastward for the next several hours while gradually
weakening. Cool outflow and cloud cover associated with this system
will have an impact on the severe potential across the region today,
leading to above-average uncertainty regarding the overall
convective evolution.

The overall environment from the TX Panhandle southward through the
South Plains and eastward into western OK and northwest TX will be characterized by moderate northwesterly flow aloft, steep mid-level
lapse rates, and afternoon surface dewpoints ranging from the upper
50s to upper 60s. These conditions will support moderate to strong
buoyancy across much of the region, but areas under the influence of
the MCS's outflow and/or cloud cover will likely remain capped due
to limited/filtered diurnal heating. Current expectation is for the
TX South Plains and Permian Basin to remain south of the outflow,
allowing for strong heating and airmass destabilization. The outflow
is expected to act as the primary impetus for convective initiation
across the region this afternoon. Additional areas of low-level
convergence near a weak surface low over southeast NM and the weak
lee troughing extending from southeast CO across eastern NM could
result in a few storms as well.

Low-level easterly/southeasterly flow veering to northwesterly in
the mid levels will result in moderate vertical shear, with the
overall wind profile quite supportive for large hail. As such, there
is a conditional risk for supercells capable of large to very large
hail. With time, some upscale growth into one or more linear
clusters with an increased risk for damaging gusts is possible.

...Central High Plains...
Early morning surface analysis placed a broad area of low pressure
from northeast CO into southwest SD. A low is expected develop
within this region by the early afternoon, and low-level convergence
in the vicinity of this low will likely result in thunderstorm
initiation. Late afternoon initiation is possible along the weak lee
trough across eastern WY as well. Moderate buoyancy will support
strong updrafts, but vertical shear is forecast to be weak, limiting
storm organization and longevity. Isolated hail and damaging gusts
are possible, particularly with any forward-propagating clusters
that can develop.

...Northwest...
Shortwave trough currently off the northern CA coast is forecast to
continue northeastward today, with lift associated with this system
impinging on the region by the early afternoon. Increasing mid-level
moisture (already apparent on the 12Z BOI sounding) will help
support moderate buoyancy and the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A belt of stronger
mid-level flow ahead of the shortwave will increase deep-layer shear
to 30-40 kt, supporting some storm organization. Steep lapse rates
with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and the potential for
high-based semi-organized clusters will favor strong downdrafts
capable of occasional severe gusts with the stronger storms. Small
hail will also be possible with any more persistent clusters or weak
supercell structures despite the limited buoyancy.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/03/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 061240
SWODY1
SPC AC 061238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND PART
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over
part of northern Minnesota today and tonight.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
An MCS continues to push southward across the Mid MO Valley this
morning. The current motion, particularly the westward backbuilding
of storms into more of east-central NE, have oriented this system
favorably to a moist low-level jet, which should support maintenance
of this line for the next few hours. Echo tops within this system
remain fairly cool and occasionally strong updrafts have persisted
for the last several hours. Additionally, a notable rise/fall
pressure couplet exists with this system, as sampled by the +4 mb
pressure rise as SUX. These factors indicate the MCS remains mature
and could still occasionally produce damaging gusts over the next
few hours across southeast NE, southwest IA, northwest MO, and far
northeast KS. This MCS should begin to weaken later this morning
when the low-level jet weakens.

The region will be within the mostly zonal flow between the upper
ridging centered over NM and a shortwave trough moving through SK
and MB. Some rising heights are possible during the second half of
the period as the pattern amplifies ahead of a shortwave trough
moving into the northern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level flow
(i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and
diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate
to strong buoyancy. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear
would favor strong to severe thunderstorms, but the satellite
imagery lacks any notable disturbances upstream and the large-scale
ascent is nebulous. The surface pattern also lacks any well-defined
features, with only weak troughing sampled from the central Dakotas
to a weak low over northeast CO.

As such, when and where convective initiation occurs, if it occurs
at all, is uncertain. Convective initiation appears most likely near
the Black Hills into western NE within southeasterly low-level
upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Environmental
conditions support supercells with a conditional risk for large hail
and damaging winds. However, given the uncertainty regarding
coverage, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5).

...Northern MN...
A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the
Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse
rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable
thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will
likely remain close to the international border, but could produce
locally strong gusts or marginal hail.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/06/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 111248
SWODY1
SPC AC 111246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose some risk for
severe winds and hail across parts of the southern Plains, and
separately from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, mainly this
afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...
Convection has generally weakened this morning across eastern KS,
with a outflow reinforced front advancing southward across the
southern High Plains. This boundary is forecast to stall through the
morning and early afternoon, and it will likely serve as a focus for
renewed thunderstorm development later today. The southern extent of
upper troughing that exists over much of the Plains is forecast to
advance eastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon.
Initial development over the higher terrain of north-central into
northeast NM should occur in a modest low-level upslope flow regime,
with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to moderate instability.
Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and
modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting
modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization.

Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular
development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering
potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the
TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While
deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered
thunderstorms developing with moderate to locally strong instability
amid ample daytime heating. Isolated damaging winds via strong
downbursts and marginally severe hail appear possible with the
stronger cores given seasonably cool temperatures aloft (around -10C
at 500 mb with the 12Z OUN observed sounding), and the Marginal Risk
has been expanded eastward for this possibility.

...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota...
Within upper troughing already established over the northern/central
Plains and central Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough and related
surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND
and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture
characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should
be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating
and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the
development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should
gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this
afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into
northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail,
with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective
organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the
front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts
possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the
overall severe threat.

...Missouri/Iowa...
An MCV generated by overnight/early morning convection across the southern/central Plains should develop northeastward into parts of
northern MO and IA by this afternoon. It remains unclear whether
sufficient instability to support robust thunderstorms will be able
to develop today ahead of this feature given ongoing convection and
cloud debris. Regardless, some enhancement to the low/mid-level flow
and related deep-layer shear could support updraft organization if surface-based thunderstorms can develop. Given the continued
uncertainty regarding this potential, have held off on inclusion of
low severe probabilities across this region with this update.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/11/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 121150
SWODY1
SPC AC 121148

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
upper Great Lakes/Midwest today with both damaging winds and hail
possible. Gusty winds may also occur over southeast Arizona and
southwest New Mexico.

...Great Lakes/Midwest...
A band of thunderstorms associated with an MCV tracked northeastward
across parts of IA into northern IL and southern WI early this
morning while remaining mostly sub-severe. Still, there may be some
potential for strong to locally damaging winds with this activity as
it continues northeastward across Lake Michigan into parts of Lower
MI this morning/early afternoon as daytime heating gradually
destabilizes the boundary layer. Otherwise, additional convection
should develop later this afternoon along/ahead of a weak front over
parts of WI and the U.P. of MI as the southern portion of a
mid/upper-level trough moves eastward over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes. Instability is forecast to remain fairly modest ahead of the
front, but enough deep-layer shear should exist to support some
organized convection. Initial cells may be capable of producing
marginally severe hail, before clustering potentially increases the
threat for occasional strong to damaging winds.

A separate area of thunderstorms is forecast to develop this
afternoon farther south and ahead of the front from portions of the
Midwest into Lower MI. While this region will have relatively weaker
mid-level westerly flow and related deep-layer shear compared to
locations farther north, greater low-level moisture and instability
are expected to be present. As low-level lapse rates become
steepened with diurnal heating of the moist airmass, loosely
organized clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging
winds as they spread generally east-northeastward through the
afternoon and early evening.

...Southwest...
Strong daytime heating should encourage diurnally driven convection
over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM this
afternoon. With weak flow aloft and negligible shear, thunderstorms
should drift slowly southward. Still, occasional gusty winds may
occur with the more robust convection given steepened lapse rates.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/12/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)