ACUS02 KWNS 280610
SWODY2
SPC AC 280609

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OHIO INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible southwestward into the southern Great
Plains. Isolated significant-severe potential, mainly from hail, is
apparent across west Texas and separately in parts of the eastern
Midwest to Lower Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A consolidated shortwave trough will move eastward across the Great
Lakes and southeast Canada on Tuesday. A southern-stream trough over
the Southwest to northwest Mexico should drift east. Primary surface
cyclone over northeast ON should quickly progress towards the
Canadian Maritimes. An attendant cold front will push across the
central to Lower Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening. A weaker
surface low should remain anchored over the TX Trans-Pecos.

...Eastern Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
Ahead of the cold front, the warm sector across the Ohio Valley into
the Lower Great Lakes region should destabilize through the
morning/early afternoon. Initially, storms will develop across
eastern Ohio into the Lower Great Lakes near the aforementioned
surface low/cold front interface. Large hail will be the initial
threat with supercell modes before a tendency to cluster and grow
upscale. This will bring an increase in the potential for scattered
to widespread damaging wind as the front shifts eastward with bowing
line segments/clusters through time.

...TX/OK...
A secondary weaker surface low will develop across western Texas
near the vicinity of the dryline and a stationary front across
portions of central Oklahoma into southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon.
This region will be the focus of supercell development by the
afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail, severe wind,
and a tornado. An Enhanced Risk for hail may be needed in further
outlook updates, given the steep lapse rates and supercellular
modes, but uncertainty on coverage warrants re-evaluation as
mesoscale details become more clear.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/28/2025

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