ACUS01 KWNS 261241
SWODY1
SPC AC 261240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across
parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region. Highest
coverage is expected from south-central Oklahoma and far
north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Isolated severe storms
are also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
Early morning satellite and radar imagery shows a convectively
enhanced vorticity maximum moving into western OK, with strong (to
occasionally severe) thunderstorms ongoing along its eastern and
southern periphery. The MCV is expected to continue
east-southeastward, likely progressing along a stationary boundary
that extends west to east along the Red River vicinity. Moderate
downstream airmass destabilization is anticipated over the next
several hours downstream of the MCV across eastern OK and far
northeast TX. In general, bulk shear across the region will be
modest. However, there could be some localized enhancement of the
shear across the eastern periphery of the MCV where slightly
stronger low-level southerly flow is anticipated. These
environmental conditions will help support a continued risk for
severe thunderstorms into eastern OK and adjacent northeast TX.
Overall severe coverage is expected to be high enough to warrant
increased wind probabilities from south-central OK/far north-central
TX into eastern OK. The increased shear could also result in a
greater tornado threat and tornado probabilities were increased
across eastern OK.

Farther west, thunderstorm development will likely continue along
the outflow boundary moving southward across the Texas South Plains.
Southward progression of this boundary will likely slow throughout
the day as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to a
tightening lee trough and a nocturnal low-level jet that develops
ahead of another shortwave trough. Isolated severe storms are
possible along this outflow as well as the stalled front/lee trough
expected to extend from eastern NM into southeast CO. Storm
development across these areas is less certain, with limited
coverage currently anticipated. A few widely spaced supercells are
possible with at least a localized threat of large hail,
strong/severe gusts, and possibly even a tornado.

...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Upper Great Lakes
region. Surface analysis places the low associated with this
shortwave over Lake Ontario, with a cold front extending from this
low back southwestward through the central Appalachians, TN Valley,
and Mid-South. Expectation is for the shortwave trough to continue
eastward in the Northeast throughout the day, with the attendant
surface low progressing more northeastward through New England. The
associated cold front will also progress eastward, moving through
the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the
Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is
already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development
appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the
period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC
vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay.

Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could
support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and
evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting
the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some
locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany
the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is
expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 04/26/2025

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