MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 202208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202207=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-202300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...

Valid 202207Z - 202300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue east across Arkansas this
afternoon and evening. The low-level environment will remain
supportive of tornadoes. A new Tornado Watch will likely be needed
across eastern Arkansas -- to the east of the existing watch --
within the hour.

DISCUSSION...A mixed-mode (linear segments and discrete cells) line
of thunderstorms continues to move east across Arkansas this
afternoon. The environment along and ahead of these storms is
characterized by 100-mb mixed-layer CAPE around 1000 J/kg and
effective-layer shear around 50-60 knots. Additionally, the Little
Rock VAD depicts strong low-level curvature with 0-1 km SRH
averaging around 180-190 m2/s2 over the last hour. Discrete
thunderstorms moving from southwest Arkansas toward central Arkansas
have shown increasing organization/mid-level rotation, with
broadcast media reporting a tornado recently in Garland County.=20

This environment should evolve east across the state this evening,
supporting a continued tornado threat east of the ongoing tornado
watch. With Tornado Watch 154 scheduled to expire by 00 UTC / 7 PM
CDT, a new tornado watch for portions of central and eastern
Arkansas will likely be needed within the hour.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 04/20/2025

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON 36309300 36529184 36399031 35858986 34309047 34299051
33299101 32979137 32899293 33049390 33949373 36309300=20

***

ACUS11 KWNS 202240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202240=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Missouri into
western Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...155...

Valid 202240Z - 210015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154, 155 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches
154-155. Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes remain the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced QLCS has matured over the last several
hours given increased deep-layer ascent with a strengthening surface
cyclone. Several damaging/severe gusts have been observed (including
measured gusts exceeding 55 kts in spots), along with multiple
possible tornadoes. Ahead of the QLCS, a 60 kt southerly low-level
jet persists per 21Z mesoanalysis, providing ample momentum for
downward transport of strong to severe winds to the surface,
supporting the potential for damaging gusts. Strong low-level shear
remains in place, so a QLCS tornado threat remains with any
mesovortices that develop. Currently, two predominant segments of
the QLCS present a locally higher damaging gust/tornado threat given
the prevalence of ongoing mesovortices.

..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 36659273 38339276 39109269 40499223 41089173 41199058
40919008 40188970 39528964 38808974 37989021 37359058
36929090 36659125 36549158 36579237 36659273=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$
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