ACUS11 KWNS 191036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191035 COR
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-191300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southern Illinois...Southwest
Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191035Z - 191300Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts will likely continue across
parts of southeast Missouri, and may affect parts of southern
Illinois and southwest Indiana later this morning. New watch
issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from St. Louis
shows a short bowing line segment moving through southeast Missouri.
The line segment is located near a boundary along the western edge
of a moist airmass, where the RAP has MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. The
line is also located near the entrance region of an 80 to 90 knot
mid-level speed max. This feature is contributing to lift and strong
deep-layer shear. RAP forecast soundings in southeast Missouri have
0-6 km shear near 70 knots, with 40 knots of flow about 700 meters
above ground level. This, combined with a forward speed of about 50
knots, suggest the bowing line segment will be associated with
severe gusts. As the line moves northeastward across southeast
Missouri and into southern Illinois, wind gusts exceeding 70 mph
will be possible. If the line can intensify, then watch issuance
would become necessary.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/19/2025

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37949095 37639118 37409116 37199101 37089068 37109040
37378927 38038745 38338678 38798646 39268665 39568690
39668714 39648768 39488818 39208875 38419026 37949095

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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