ACUS02 KWNS 180542
SWODY2
SPC AC 180540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central
Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across
Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday.
Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley
through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough
over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads
eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest
extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into
the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist
warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls
overspreading the region near/after 00z.

...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon...

Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary
will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms
Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along
the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will
remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft
could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally.

...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening...

Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the
cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level
jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in
forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a
corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX
and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could
pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may
become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into
the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters
of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime
hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any
linear development as well.

..Leitman.. 04/18/2025

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