ACUS03 KWNS 170722
SWODY3
SPC AC 170721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from central
Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.

...Southern Plains to southern MO...

An upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will pivot east toward
the southern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. This will maintain
strong southwesterly flow aloft from TX into the Midwest. At the
surface, a front is expected to be draped from southern IL/MO into
northwest TX during the morning, with a dryline extending southward
across west-central TX in the vicinity of the Big Bend. Southerly
low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass ahead of these surface
boundaries, with dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F. Some
convection could be ongoing during the morning in a warm advection
regime prior to the low-level jet weakening modestly during the day.
Stronger heating ahead of the surface boundary could allow for weak
to moderate destabilization by afternoon, and additional convection
is likely along the cold front/dryline as large-scale ascent
increases with the approach of the upper shortwave trough.

Vertical wind profiles suggest supercell potential, but storm mode
may quickly trend toward clusters/linear segments. Some risk for
large hail and damaging gusts appears possible with this activity
during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, with initial
convection developing over TX/OK and spreading into the Ozarks after
00z.

...Ohio Valley...

An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across Ontario/Quebec
and the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will bring a belt of strong
deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes/Northeast vicinity. A cold front and associated baroclinic
zone will sag south/southeast across the Ohio Valley vicinity with a
narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture forecast within
this region. Severe potential will largely be modulated by ongoing
convection Saturday morning and generally weak instability and lapse
rates. Nevertheless, strong flow and sufficient instability may
support strong gusts with thunderstorm clusters during the morning
and afternoon hours.

..Leitman.. 04/17/2025

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