ACUS03 KWNS 150722
SWODY3
SPC AC 150721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN
MO/EASTERN NE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern
Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa.

...Synopsis...
A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie
Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface
cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon,
with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into
MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great
Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the
baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night.

...IA/MO/NE...
Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm
front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing
at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity
may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for
isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated
in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm
potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in
the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away
from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture
return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume
of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering
wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and
supercell potential.

As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater
convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms
producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the
post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS
Valley by early morning Friday.

..Grams.. 04/15/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains
and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms
are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
evening/night.

...Discussion...
A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the
Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level
trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this
occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer
low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens
across the High Plains.

Forecast guidance is consistent showing a sharp dryline extending
from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend. Mid to
upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will
support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast
soundings show a weakly capped airmass along the entirety of the
dryline. Therefore, weak height falls and a sharp dryline
circulation will likely be sufficient for at least isolated
supercell development along the dryline. At this time, storm
coverage appears too sparse to support greater probabilities, but a
favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all
severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop.

Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities
increase due to stronger forcing. A slight risk has been introduced
across portions of central Nebraska into southern South Dakota where
the greatest potential for late afternoon/evening supercell
development exists. As the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, more
widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north
of the warm front across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota
Sunday night.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 290718
SWODY3
SPC AC 290717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas
into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will eject across the Midwest into the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys region on Thursday, with a broad area
of enhanced southwesterly flow extending from the lower Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes region. A cold front will sag southward
through this region, with potential for scattered thunderstorm
development throughout the day Thursday across a broad region. A
primarily marginal risk for wind and hail will be possible with this
activity. This overall risk is limited by displacement of better
shear northward through time with respect to the more favorable air
mass across Tennessee southward into northern MS/AR/northern LA.
Nonetheless, dew points in the mid 50s to 60s will extend as far
north as the Great Lakes, where stronger deep layer shear is
forecast which supports bringing the probabilities into this region.

Early in the D3/Thursday period, a line of thunderstorms may be
ongoing across northeastern Texas into central Arkansas. Some re-intensification of this activity will be possible through the
afternoon as the air mass downstream warms and becomes favorably
unstable. Weaker shear profiles and forcing gradually shifting
northward through the afternoon/evening will likely keep this threat
lower. Nonetheless, potential for damaging wind will be possible.

Further west across the dryline in central Texas, deep layer flow
will remain modest enough to support potential for some thunderstorm development by the late afternoon. While low level shear will be
weak, deep layer flow will support potential for instances of severe
hail, given steep low to mid-level lapse rates.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025

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