MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 141818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141818=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Middle/Upper Ohio River Valley to
the Central Appalachians.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 141818Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind gusts will spread eastward through the afternoon into the
evening. A watch will likely be issued within an hour or two for
parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorms are developing across southern IN
this afternoon, generally focused along/ahead of an eastward-moving
cold front. Ahead of this activity, continued diurnal heating amid
increasing boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints) will continue to erode inhibition and support additional
storm development. Steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by earlier
12Z soundings) atop the destabilizing boundary layer will yield
around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, favoring a gradual increase in storm
intensity through the afternoon. As 60+ kt of midlevel flow (sampled
by upstream VWP data) overspreads the warm sector, very long/mostly
straight hodographs (60-70 kt of effective shear) will promote
splitting supercell structures, posing a risk of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Despite the expectation for an initially
semi-discrete mode, strong outflow amid the splitting storm
structures will favor gradual upscale growth into small lines and
clusters with eastward extent -- with an associated increasing
severe-wind risk. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the
area within an hour or two.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/14/2025

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...
LMK...

LAT...LON 38248556 38918470 39248402 39638285 40028068 39977973
39747915 39357876 38847859 38237864 37707920 37408001
37228138 37038395 37138489 37338555 37818577 38248556=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

***

AWUS01 KWNH 141916
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-150115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Areas affected...West Virginia, southern Ohio, northern/eastern
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141915Z - 150115Z

Summary...Scattered convection will produce areas/spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates at time, posing a risk of isolated flash
flooding through 04Z this evening.

Discussion...Over the past hour, scattered convection has
developed from Bloomington to near Cincinnati. These cells were
on the northeastern extent of an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and
were also along and just ahead of a surface front that was making
steady eastward progress across the Ohio Valley. Convection was
already oriented parallel to steering flow aloft - with localized
training noted just south of Cincinnati already prompting
MRMS/local radar estimates of 0.75 inch/hr rain rates in a few
spots.

Through the afternoon, convection will mature and increase in
coverage, with supercellular wind profiles, moderate instability,
and continued orientation parallel to mean flow aloft supporting
localized areas of training. Occasional areas of 1 inch/hr rain
rates are expected, which could fall over sensitive areas and
prompt isolated flash flooding. Areawide FFGs are in the 1-1.5
inch/hr range and should be approached on an isolated basis where
the most focused/pronounced training could occur. Convection
should move quickly eastward over the discussion area due to fast
flow aloft, with flash flood potential increasing over West
Virginia from the 22Z/5pm timeframe onward. CAMs also indicate
potential for convective development southwestward along the front
(across Kentucky) that could produce brief/spotty flash flooding
if localized convective training can materialize.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39798072 39207927 38027965 37388120 37008451=20
37258573 37998577 39388566 39748379=20

$$
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