ACUS01 KWNS 101248
SWODY1
SPC AC 101246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of
the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and
wind are the primary concerns.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing is forecast to shift eastward across the
eastern CONUS today, as a series of embedded shortwave trough
progress through its base. The lead wave in this series is currently
moving through Lower/Middle OH Valley with a second wave farther
back northwest across the Upper Midwest/Mid MO Valley. This second
wave, which is accompanied by an 80 kt 500 mb jet streak, is
expected to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the
Mid-South vicinity by this evening before continuing more eastward
into southern Appalachians by early Friday.

Surface pattern preceding this upper troughing will be somewhat
disorganized and broad, with one weak low moving northeastward
across the Upper OH Valley and another moving southeastward across
the Mid MS Valley and KY/TN. A diffuse cold front is forecast to
shift southeastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-South and
eventually the Southeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
anticipated in the vicinity of this front throughout the afternoon
and evening.

...Mid-South/TN and OH Valleys into the Southeast...
Area soundings reveal the steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. greater
than 7 deg C per km) extend throughout much of the region, supported
by a large area of cold mid-level temperatures (-18 to -24 deg C at
500 mb). These cold mid-level temperatures will help support airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough and cold front, despite relatively modest low-level
moisture. Forcing for ascent along the front, as well as more broad
large-scale ascent, will interact with this destabilized airmass to
support thunderstorm development across much of the region this
afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized along the
front, but initiation could also occur elsewhere across the region
given the broad ascent and large destabilized area.

Deep mixing is anticipated across the region, resulting in a
thermodynamic profile that is somewhat unique for this part of the
country. This profile will result in high-based thunderstorms
capable of producing strong cold pools, particularly given that
shear is quite strong and updraft organization is likely. Primary
factor precluding greater severe potential is the limited low-level
moisture and resulting modest buoyancy. That being said, the long
hodographs suggest storms could be efficient at producing hail
during their initially more discrete stage, with a trend towards
cold pool amalgamation thereafter. Consequently, several bowing
segments could develop, each with the potential to produce damaging gusts.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/10/2025

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