From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Thu Apr 10 08:48:00 2025
ACUS02 KWNS 100535
SWODY2
SPC AC 100534
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of
the Southeast from late morning through the afternoon Friday.
...Eastern NC vicinity...
A leading shortwave impulse rotating through the basal portion of a
broader eastern U.S. longwave trough will yield strengthening
forcing for ascent during the late morning. Some 00Z HREF members,
notably the NSSL and FV3 indicate thunderstorm development
increasing early in the day within the low-level warm conveyor ahead
of a deepening but weak surface cyclone. Should this occur, it would
be ill-timed with respect to peak boundary-layer heating and
displaced east of the moderate mid-level lapse rate plume. But it
would be coincident with modifying moisture return characterized by
mid to upper 50s dew points over eastern NC.
Other guidance indicates a separate round of afternoon storm
development confined to near the surface cyclone in the eastern
Piedmont of NC, while a pronounced mid-level dry slot limits storm
development with southward extent into SC/GA. The degree of surface
heating along the northwest extent of the weak buoyancy plume is
quite uncertain. But mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and
moderate deep-layer shear may yield isolated severe hail and locally
strong gusts within afternoon storms.
...North FL...
Greater boundary-layer heating is anticipated ahead of the trailing
portion of the cold front that extends into the northeast Gulf.
Consensus of guidance suggests this heating will aid in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon, south of the mid-level
dry slot. While low-level flow will be veered and weak ahead of the
front, pronounced deep-layer speed shear is expected amid a 60-70 kt
500-mb jet. This should favor mid-level rotation in a few cells with
a threat of isolated large hail and localized damaging winds. This
activity should shift off the Atlantic Coast or weaken over land by
early evening.