MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 042316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042316
KYZ000-INZ000-050015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117...

Valid 042316Z - 050015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe hail and damaging gusts continues across
severe thunderstorm Watch 117, though the threat is expected to
diurnally wane.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing north of the synoptic
stationary boundary. Boundary-layer flow has remained relatively
weak with neutral height tendencies leading to weak forcing. Despite
this, relatively steep lapse rates and deep convective profiles
continue to be supportive of a hail threat. Additionally, some drier
surface air, particularly with eastern extent, may provide some
negative buoyancy for some weak downbursts that may produce damaging
gusts. However, recent convective trends have been to weaken the
storms with the loss of diurnal heating, and storms should continue
to wane in both coverage and intensity.

..Supinie.. 04/04/2025

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON 38188565 38128420 38058353 37878306 37528300 37148304
36808340 36718395 36688504 36818596 37228656 37778669
38128662 38228629 38188565

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$
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