Mesoscale Discussion 0379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025
Areas affected...eastern Kentucky
Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...
Valid 031911Z - 032115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.
SUMMARY...Storms across eastern Kentucky continue to pose a threat
of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm-air advection continues to
support thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky. Afternoon insolation
and a narrow axis of better moisture (upper 60s dewpoints) extending
into eastern Kentucky have resulted in MLCAPE values approaching
1000 J/kg. The deep-layer flow and shear (over 50 kts per
mesoanalysis and local VWPs) are more than sufficient for organized
storm modes. Currently, the dominant convective mode of north-south
oriented bands along the differential heating zone seems to favor
severe-wind potential at this time; however, the strong low-level
shear would support tornado potential pending a more favorable
convective mode.