FOUS11 KWBC 200657
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 20 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 23 2025


...Pacific and Interior Northwest...
Days 1-3...

Progressive pattern out of the North Pacific will maintain an
unsettled period for the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies. Initial front has moved past the Cascades as of early this
morning and will continue eastward across the Divide later today.
Next system will be forced by a modestly strong incoming jet
(130kts) tonight with westerly flow focusing into the Cascades,
followed by height falls from the northwest (southwestern Canada)
late Fri into early Sat. That system will dig much farther west out
ahead of incoming ridging into WA/OR, finally setting up some
drier periods on Saturday.

Low snow levels in the Cascades of around 2000-3000ft this morning
will rise through the day and overnight to around 3500-4500ft
(north to south) coincident with the next surge of moisture. Snow
levels will fall again late Fri into early Sat as the Canadian
height falls push into WA then into northern ID, down to around
1500-3000ft from north to south as the precipitation gradually
ends.

Three-day totals of at least 12 inches of snow are likely (>70%
chance) above 3500-4500ft or so from north to south along the
Cascades with some higher elevations receiving more than 2-3 ft.
Significant snow is also possible at many passes given the lower
snow levels. There is a >60% chance of at least 8 inches of snow
above 2500-3000ft or so. Farther east, significant snow in excess
of 12 inches is likely (>70% chance) across the Blue Mountains, central/northern Idaho, northwestern Montana, and into western
Wyoming. The southern extent of the snow will clip northern Utah
and the CO Rockies as well with light/modest amounts near 6 inches
(UT) and nearing 12 inches into CO, especially above 10,000ft.


...Upper Midwest...
Day 3...

The system exiting the High Plains late Sat will continue to dig
into the northern Plains overnight into early Sun. Low pressure
will coalesce over eastern SD Saturday evening and lift into MN
thereafter, bringing WAA-driven snow to northeastern MN, northern
WI, and the western U.P. of Michigan. Amounts will generally be
light through 12Z Sun, perhaps 1-2.5", and the probability of at
least 4 inches is less than 10%. Additional accumulation is likely
beyond this forecast period.


...Great Lakes/Appalachians/Northeast...
Days 1-2...

Exiting system responsible for blizzard conditions over the
central Plains will move into Canada with snow ending over Michigan
this afternoon. Additional snow accumulations will be light (an
inch or so). To the south, colder air will change rain to snow over
the central/southern Appalachians with upslope-driven
accumulations persisting into early Friday. Several inches of snow
are possible at the higher elevations above 3500ft, but WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches are low (10-40%) along the
TN/NC border. By day 2, low pressure over Cape Cod early Fri will
lift into Nova Scotia with backside snow over northern New England,
but mostly at higher elevations above 2500ft and amounts will
generally be light (<3 inches). The highest peaks of the White
mountains may see more than 4 inches (probabilities generally
10-50%).


For days 1-3, the probability of significant icing of at least
0.10" is less than 10 percent across the CONUS.


Fracasso

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FOUS11 KWBC 270713
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 27 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 30 2025


...West Coast through Northern/Central Rockies...
Days 1-3...

An anomalously deep, cold-core low off OR near 135W will further
occlude and curl up toward Vancouver Island through Thursday night
with the occluded front crossing the West Coast this morning. Snow
levels continue to rapidly drop to around 4000-5000ft today across
the Cascades into the northern CA ranges, then to around 3500ft
Friday with the passage of the upper trough axis. Accumulation
will eventually reach to some of the passes in the Cascades by
Friday, but the rates will drop around that time as well. WPC
probabilities for at least 8" of snow are high (>70%) on Days 1-2
across the high elevations of the Cascades and into the northern CA ranges/northern Sierra.

Moisture will continue inland through the northern Rockies Friday
through Saturday with periodic heavy snow above 5000ft snow levels
on Friday and 4000ft on Saturday. Snow also begins to enter the
central Rockies by Saturday as a trailing shortwave crosses the
region and drops snow levels below 7000-8000 ft. Snowfall
probabilities for at least 8" remain greatest across western MT and
towards the Little Belts and Bighorns of WY, where 50-80% values are found.


...Upper Midwest/Northern Great Lakes/Northeast...
Days 2-3...

Flattening upper ridging exiting the High Plains Thursday combined
with lee-side surface cyclogenesis centered over South Dakota
Thursday night will favor broad WAA-driven precipitation along and
north of a surface boundary draped over the Upper Midwest into the
Great Lakes. With the fast zonal/progressive flow, this will
quickly expand eastward from southern Canada and the Northeast
through the daytime on Saturday. Temperatures are marginal for
most areas, confining snow to areas closer to the MN- Canadian
border through Friday and northern NY/VT/NH into ME on Saturday.
However, this band of snow could be quite potent as the region
falls within the right entrance region of a 130 kt jet and IVT over
the 90th climatological percentile over the Great Lakes per the
NAEFS on Friday night. The narrow, but intense WAA combined with
favorable synoptic ascent and moisture could lead to snowfall rates
of 1-2"/hr, particularly across parts of New England by the end of D2.

Meanwhile, a sub- freezing surface layer will be overrun from the
S/SW with warmer air aloft, promoting a long, but narrow swath of sleet/freezing rain from the northern Plains eastward across the
U.P. of Michigan and northern WI through Ontario, the Adirondacks,
and central New England. Ptype from the models (and NBM) show a
strong signal for freezing rain (impressive for late March), but
this may be initially modulated by Friday afternoon insolation
before focusing over the U.P. of MI Friday evening. Day 2 ice
probabilities for >0.25" have risen to 30-60% over much of the U.P.
and the far northern L.P. Day 2-3 ice probabilities for >0.25"
across the Northeast are 20-40% and highest across the northern
Adirondacks as precipitation lingers through the end of Day 3 while
warmer air begins eventually lifting back north. Day 2 snow probs
for >4" have a very sharp gradient along the MN- Canadian border
with 50-70% values at the top of the Arrowhead of MN. For the
Northeast and New England on Days 2-3, probabilities for >6" have
increased to 30-50% for northern VT/NH and into central ME, with
higher values (60-80%) in the Whites of northern VT and neighboring
areas in ME.


...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest/Northern Great Lakes...
Day 3...

Quickly following the northern Great Lakes system on Day 2 a shortwave
trough axis that crosses the PacNW Friday reaches the northern
Rockies on Saturday along with a southern piece of energy crossing
the central Rockies and promotes Colorado lee- side low
development on Saturday. Broad convergence should allow some
moderate to locally heavy snow bands to form around the Black Hills
of SD (maybe far northern NE) eastward into MN by Saturday
afternoon. The 12Z GFS/EC have come into better agreement, though
the EC remains a bit farther north with the axis of heavier snow.
WPC probabilities for at least 4" of snow are 30-50% from northern
WI to the western U.P., with lower probabilities (10-30%) extending
from the Black Hills of SD through central MN. These probabilities
are likely to increase over the next few forecast cycles once
better agreement in the northern extent of QPF comes into focus. With
high pressure remaining locked in over the southern Hudson Bay,
there remains a strong signal for mixed ptype from MN through WI
and into the U.P. and northern L.P. of MI. Day 3 freezing rain
probabilities for >0.25" are currently low (10-30%) from central WI
through the northern L.P. of MI.



Snell


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FOUS11 KWBC 210713
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 21 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 24 2025

...Northeast...
Day 1...

Low pressure near Cape Cod this morning will move through the Gulf
of Maine and into Nova Scotia this afternoon, helping to draw in
colder air on the back side of the exiting precipitation shield.
Rain will change to snow from west to east with some light
accumulation over most areas, but the higher terrain of the White
Mountains may see a few inches. There, WPC probabilities of at
least 4 inches of snow are 10-40%. In addition, there is a
possibility of some modest snow amounts over eastern Maine outside
the higher terrain as the low deepens in the Gulf of Maine this
afternoon. Snow will end by midnight over eastern Maine.


...Pacific/Interior Northwest to Central Rockies...
Days 1-3...

Onshore flow continues in the PacNW with a due east jet off the
northeast Pacific aimed into WA/OR. Current jet max along the
Columbia River will continue eastward this morning, but another
will be right on its heels which will promote a moisture plume into
the OR/WA Cascades this afternoon/evening. Snow levels around
3000-5000 ft will still impact the passes today. Snow will lessen
into day 2 (Sat) as height falls dig into the northern Rockies,
which will continue eastward into day 3. By then, upper ridging
will move into the PacNW with a system into the southern AK
Panhandle, allowing snow levels to rise much higher to above 6000ft
Sunday afternoon into early Monday. Three-day totals of at least
12 inches of snow are likely (>70% chance) above 4000ft or so but
primarily on day 1.

West-to-east jet will continue to advance the moisture plume into
the northern Rockies, favoring the Blue, Sawtooth, Bitterroots,
Lewis Range, Absaroka, and Tetons through Saturday morning.
Elevations above 5,000ft in the Blue, Sawtooth, Bitterroots, and
Lewis Range have at least a 70% chance of receiving at least 12
inches of snow through tomorrow morning. Probabilities are a little
lower to the south (Absarokas and Tetons), but many areas will
still see at least 8 inches of snow (>70% chance above 7000ft or so).

On the south side of the jet and moisture plume, northern UT into
the CO Rockies will likely see at least 8 inches of snow above
9000ft or so (>70% chance), starting later tonight into Saturday
then ending Saturday night.


...Upper Midwest & Great Lakes...
Days 2-3...

Height falls associated with a shortwave exiting Montana Saturday
evening will continue to deepen into MN by Sunday morning in
response to the amplification of the upper pattern upstream. Low
pressure over SD will track eastward into MN with broad WAA ahead
of it over the Upper Midwest. Surface temperatures will be fairly
marginal with some areas starting as rain before mixing with and
changing to snow as the low strengthens on Sunday. As it does,
colder air will wrap around its northwest side over northern MN
moderate snow likely for a time Sunday afternoon. Models have been
wavering on the strength of the upper and sfc features (and thus
the QPF and ultimately the snow), but the eastern Arrowhead (Lake
Shore) may be in a favorable spot for heavier snow due to easterly
flow off Lake Superior. SLRs may start on the lower end below 10:1
then rise as colder air works its way in, but will also combat
afternoon solar insolation where rates are not as heavy. All told,
WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow days 2-3 are at
least 10 percent generally north of I-94, with increasing
probabilities northward and northeastward into the Arrowhead. This
also includes northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan from a
combination of front-end WAA snow and wraparound snow after the low
passes through. Despite likely closing off up to 500mb, the system
will remain progressive but will not clear the area until after 12Z Mon.


For days 1-3, the probability of significant icing of at least
0.10" is less than 10 percent across the CONUS.


Fracasso


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 280748
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 31 2025

...West Coast through Northern/Central Rockies... Days 1-3...

A deep, slow-moving low centered off of the Northwest coast will
gradually fill as it lifts to the north over the next day or so.
However, even as the system lifts out, snow levels across the
Northwest will continue to drop into early Saturday as a series of
shortwave troughs digging south of the low move inland. This will
bring levels down to around 3000-4000ft in the Washington and
Oregon Cascades today, before dropping below 3000ft with the
passage of a well-defined trough Saturday morning. Further to the
south, snow levels starting above 5000ft in the Shasta- Siskiyou
region and the northern Sierra Nevada will drop below 4000ft in
many locations before precipitation ends. Although snow levels will
be on the decline, so will the onshore moisture advection, with
guidance showing IVTs dropping off after the start of the period
and a break in precipitation on Day 2. The heaviest precipitation
is expected to center across southern Oregon and far northern
California, where the best moisture and forcing is expected to
focus later today. By early Saturday, precipitation is expected to
diminish from south to north as an upper ridge moves inland in the
wake of the previously-noted trough. Day 1 WPC probabilities for
over 8 inches of snow are 60-80% for parts of the Olympics,
Cascades, Klamath Mountains, and the northern Sierra Nevada. Then,
the next system approaches the West Coast by Day 3 as the closed
upper low off the Pacific Northwest reloads from energy dropping
southward across the eastern Aleutians. This leads to additional
moderate onshore flow amid initial snow levels around 4000-5000ft
(up to 6000ft in the central/southern Sierra). WPC probabilities
for at least 8 inches of additional snow on Day 3 across the Sierra
and northern CA ranges are 40-70%, but are expected to increase as
the bulk of the precipitation moves onshore after 12z/Mon.

Meanwhile, moisture spreading inland across the northern Great
Basin and Rockies will begin to interact with a developing low-to-
mid level baroclinic zone and periods of enhanced forcing
associated with the inland moving troughs to produce light-to-
moderate precipitation, including mountain snow from the northern
to the central Rockies. Precipitation coverage is expected to
increase Friday night, with unsettled weather continuing through
the weekend and ending with a weak area of convergence on Sunday
between western MT and northern CO. Snow levels beginning above
5000ft in the northern Rockies Friday night are forecast to dip
below 4000ft in some location by late Saturday. In the central
Rockies, snow levels will drop to 7000-8000ft in the Colorado
ranges and around 5000-6000ft across northern Utah. WPC Days 1-2
probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are generally 50-70%
from the Blue Mts of northwest OR through the central ID ranges
into southwest MT, as well as the Absarokas and Wind River Range.
These probs also extend south to the Park Range and Medicine Bow
Mountains of CO/WY.

...Northern Minnesota through the Northern Great Lakes... Day 1...

A longwave upper trough in the West working in tandem with the
right-entrance region of a 250mb jet streak this afternoon will
foster large-scale ascent aloft throughout the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. The upper trough and a strong low-level ridge of high
pressure off the Southeast coast supports a strengthening SWrly
low-mid level flow regime that results in exceptional warm-air
advection (WAA) for the regions reference above. This WAA will
clash with a cold Canadian air-mass anchored by a 1030mb+ high
pressure system over Ontario and Quebec. The result is 925-700mb
FGEN that produces a narrow band of disruptive snow (primarily
north of the U.S.-Canadian border) and ice starting as early as
this morning across far northern MN, but becoming more widespread
across northern MN/WI/MI by this evening. The strong WAA over sub-
freezing boundary layer temps is a favorable setup for freezing
rain/sleet that will make for hazardous travel conditions even
where only light amounts occur. WPC probabilities for at least
0.25" of ice accretion on Day 1 is medium (50-70%) across the
eastern U.P. and northern L.P. of MI, with 20-40% chances extending
westward across the U.P. and into the MN Arrowhead.

...Northeast... Days 1-3...

This same system is expected to spread a narrow swath of heavy snow
and area of mixed precipitation into the Interior Northeast and New
England by late D1, but with wintry precipitation lingering for
several days. This long-duration event made possible by a trailing
shortwave and developing central U.S. trough which will continue to
reinforce a favorable jet pattern for upper divergence as well as
sufficient mid-upper level moisture content. However, the snowfall
threat peaks early Saturday morning as a jet max passes to the
north of New England and 925-850mb WAA is at it's strongest. 00z
HREF depicts 30-40% chances for 1-2"/hr snowfall rates around
13z/Sat across far northern NY and northern VT/NH. WPC snowfall
probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow on days 1-2 are medium
(40-60%) from northern NH, VT, and into central ME.

South of this heavy snow threat between the northern Adirondacks
and much of central/southern VT and NH, 850-750mb warm nose allows
for a transition area of sleet/freezing rain. After the brief
burst of heavier precip early Sat, forcing weakens and there is
left a weak stream of moisture overrunning a CAD signature due to a
strong 1030mb High situated over the James Bay. This potentially
significant icing threat is expected to linger through Sun morning
until the surface low across the Midwest begins to strengthen and
push warmer air northward across New England by Day 3. However, the
CAD signature in place will continue to support freezing rain
across the typically colder valley locations and areas banked along
the Green/White mountains. WPC probabilities for the entire
forecast period (ending 12z/Mon) are high (70-80%) for at least
0.25" of ice accretion from the NY border with eastern Ontario
through the northern Adirondacks and into central VT/NH.
Probabilities for at least 0.5" also impressive and 40-60% (highest
across western Jefferson county of NY).

...Northern High Plains through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Days 2-3...

A shortwave trough moving into the Southwest today is expected to
lift northeast from the Four Corners across the central Rockies and
into the High Plains Saturday morning. Moisture fed into an area
of strong ascent generated in part by favorable upper jet forcing
and potent 700mb closed low will support precipitation north of an
associated surface low that will develop and move east of the
Colorado Rockies. Rain changing to snow is expected from
southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming into parts of
western to central SD and NE. The highest amounts are forecast to
fall across the Black Hills, but locally heavy totals are also
possible eastward along southern SD and north- central NE. WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches are 40-70% across the Black
Hills and 10-30% into south-central SD and north- central NE.

As this system develops further Saturday night through Day 3,
increasing WAA and a blossoming precipitation shield is expected to
spread into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Surface low pressure
is expected to track along along the 925-850mb front that remains
stationary from NE and southern MN on east through Michigan. There
still remains some discrepancies in guidance on the evolution/strength
of this storm system, but there is a growing consensus with the
00z guidance on the synoptic scale. The GFS finally has a more
amplified solution (in line with the CMC and ECMWF), which paints
an axis of snow fall extending east-northeast from SD through
central MN into northern WI and the MI U.P.. There is also higher
confidence in yet more freezing rain/sleet from northern and
central WI on east through northern Michigan as high pressure
remains locked in place over James Bay and cold northeast flow
continues to filter into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This is a
very favorable setup for potentially significant freezing rain from
northern WI through northern MI, especially for late-March. WPC
probabilities show moderate chances (30-60%) for ice accumulations

0.25" in these areas with low chances (10-30%) for >0.5" across

parts of northern WI. In terms of snowfall, WPC probabilities show
moderate chances (30-60%) for snowfall totals >6" in far northern
WI and the western MI U.P..

Snell
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FOUS11 KWBC 290823
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Apr 01 2025

...Central/Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Northern Great Lakes...
Days 1-2...

Long-duration ice storm to impact northern WI through the northern
MI L.P. and much of the central/eastern U.P. through Sunday, while
moderate to heavy snow is likely from SD/Neb through far northern
WI and along the lakeshore of Lake Superior.

A negatively tilted upper trough will cross the Intermountain West
today and usher potent SWrly flow into the north-central U.S.,
while a leading mid-level shortwave ejects into the central Plains
by this afternoon. This leading shortwave is associated with
leeside cyclogenesis along the CO/KS border and an attached sharp
stationary front extending east-northeast through the Midwest and
Great Lakes. As moisture overruns this frontal boundary and
expansive high pressure stretches across Canada, a wintry mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely this weekend.

Snowfall is forecast to begin across western Neb into the Black
Hills and south-central SD by this afternoon associated with the
mid-level low crossing overhead leading to sufficient convergence
and bands of snowfall capable of containing 1-2"/hr rates. These
rates will be imperative to achieving heavy accumulations as
boundary layer temperatures start out well above freezing. The 00z
HREF depicts the best chances for these intense snowfall rates are
along the western and central SD/Neb border centered near the Pine
Ridge Reservation. Snowfall rates will likely lower while the
northern precipitation shield expands east-northeast in response to
the progressing surface low and forcing becoming more stretched in
an east-west direction. Moderate snow will extend across SD,
central MN, and towards far northern WI and the MI U.P. by tonight.
There has been some latitudinal uncertainty regarding this swath
of snow, with 00z guidance coming in a touch south. Regardless, WPC probabilities for at least 4" of snow are 30-60% for this region,
with localized pockets up to 80%. Meanwhile, the heaviest snowfall
from this system is most likely from near or just south of Duluth,
MN eastward along the lakeshore of Lake Superior from far northern
WI into the MI U.P. due to snow remaining the dominant ptype
throughout the event. Here, WPC probabilities for at least 6" are
high (60-80%).

South of the heavy snow axis a corridor of impactful sleet and
freezing rain are forecast to stretch from northern WI through much
of northern MI. A prior storm has already led to a corridor of ice
across this region and precipitation may linger continuously today
across northern WI/MI until a resurgence tonight through Sunday.
High pressure (~1030mb) over James Bay will continue to usher in
cold northeasterly flow as the surface low tracks across southern
WI on Sunday. Ice accretion may be limited during daytime hours
given the late-March sun angle, but with the bulk of the wintry mix
occurring Saturday night there is the potential for significant
ice accumulations. WPC probabilities for at least 0.25" of freezing
rain are highest (60-90%) across parts of northern WI and the
northern MI L.P., with chances for >0.5" at 30-60%. Medium
probabilities (30-60%) for at least 0.25" also extend into the
central/eastern MI U.P. as well as into parts of northwestern WI to
the border of MN. In addition to the freezing rain threat, some
areas from northern WI to the MI U.P. could experience over 1" of sleet.

...Northeast... Days 1-2...

Prolonged wintry mix expected across the Interior Northeast through
New England this weekend, including the potential for heavy icing
before above freezing temperatures return on Monday.

An initial pulse of heavy precipitation is swinging through
northern NY and New England this morning, including heavy snow up
to 1"/hr until around 14Z across northern VT into central/northern
NH. This snowfall is a result of a jet max passing to the north of
New England and where 925-850mb WAA is strongest, which quickly
wanes later today.

South of this heavy snow threat between the northern Adirondacks
and much of central/southern VT and NH, 850-750mb warm nose allows
for a transition zone of sleet/freezing rain. After the brief
burst of heavier precip this morning, forcing weakens and there is
left a weak stream of moisture overrunning a CAD signature due to
the strong High situated over the James Bay and elevated PWs (above
the 90th climatological percentile per the NAEFS SAT) continuously
advected from the WSW. WAA gains latitude by Sunday as the Great
Lakes low pressure strengthens and tracks northeast into Canada by
Sunday night. Even with this storm track turning the entire northeast eventually over to rain on Monday, a prolonged wintry mix this
weekend could lead to significant freezing rain amounts. Areas most
at risk for heavy icing include northern NY and the Adirondacks,
through the Greens and Whites of VT/NH, where CAD is likely to
remain longest.

WPC probabilities for >0.25" ice are 60-80% for the Thousand
Islands area, the northern Adirondacks and south- central VT/NH.
Probabilities for >0.1" ice extend as far south as the MA
Berkshires and northward along the White Mts through ME into Day 2.

...Northern/Central Rockies... Days 1-3...

An upper trough sliding eastward across the Intermountain West
today will maintain some Pacific moisture advection into the
northern/central Rockies while also interacting with a developing
low- to- mid level baroclinic zone to produce light-to- moderate
mountain snow this weekend. Precipitation coverage is expected to
peak on Day 1 as the upper trough moves through, with unsettled
weather continuing through Sunday across MT/WY due to the
relatively strong baroclinic zone being reinforced by high
pressure positions over southern Saskatchewan. Snow levels
beginning around 5000ft in the northern Rockies are forecast to dip
below 4000ft in some location by this evening. In the central
Rockies, snow levels will drop to 7000-8000ft in the Colorado
ranges and around 5000-6000ft across northern Utah. WPC Days 1-2
probabilities for >8" of snow are generally 40-70% over southwest
MT, the Absarokas and Wind River Range, and the Park Range and
Medicine Bow Mountains of northern CO.

By the end of Day 3/12z Tuesday, a strong closed upper low returns
to off the Pacific Northwest and extends a 160kt 250mb westerly
jet inland through the central Great Basin. Pacific moisture,
upslope flow, and increasing upper divergence to the north of this
low produces the next round of mountain snow across the
northern/central Rockies. Current WPC Day 3 probabilities for at
least 8" are 30-50% from southwest MT, western WY, into the
northern CO Rockies.

...West Coast through the Intermountain West... Days 2-3...

The next cold core low drifts toward OR, but remains offshore
Sunday through Monday. A broad plume of Pacific moisture shifts
inland Sunday and lifts northeastward with renewed enhancement
from an ejecting shortwave trough Sunday night producing heavy
precip over the northern half of CA Monday. Days 2-3 snow probs for

8" are 50-90% in the southern OR Cascades, the Klamath/Trinity

Alps, and northern/central Sierra Nevada with snow levels of
5000-6000ft Sunday dropping to 4000-5000ft by Monday morning. Snow
also extends into the central/northern Great Basin Sunday night
through Monday, with snow levels falling below 4000-5000ft on Day 3
across the Idaho ranges and remaining around 5000-6000ft across UT/NV.

Snell
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 300721
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 02 2025

...Upper Midwest, Northern Great Lakes, and Northeast... Day 1...

Ongoing prolonged late-season ice storm continues across portions
of northern WI into the northern MI L.P. and central/eastern U.P.,
as well as New England today. A negatively tilted 250-500mb trough
axis working in tandem with the strongly diffluent right- entrance
region of a 250mb jet streak has organized an area of low pressure
tracking across the Great Lakes today. Sufficiently cold
temperatures remain locked in place to the north of the robust
925-700mb FGEN warm front that is oriented W-E from northern WI to
as far east as New England. This is all thanks to a 1030mb+ high
pressure system over southeastern Canada that is supporting the
ongoing icy setup. As strong SWrly winds overrun the sub-freezing
air-mass, a >0C warm nose protruding into the 850-700mb will cause precipitation to fall in the form of freezing rain and sleet
throughout the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, the northern
Appalachians, and New England into the end of Day 1. By Monday
morning the low pressure system is forecast to push into southeast
Canada and surge above freezing temperatures throughout the entire
East Coast, with precipitation also gradually ending across the
Great Lakes. While ice will be the more commonly observed winter
weather hazard, there will be light to moderate snow beneath the
deformation zone on the northern and western flanks of the 850mb low.

Periods of snow will be ongoing across central MN into northern WI
and the MI U.P. this morning, as well as wrapping around the
western side of the low as far south as northwest IA. South of the
snow axis, freezing rain and sleet will be common in northern
Wisconsin, the eastern Michigan U.P., across the tip of Michigan's
Mitten, and into interior New England. The 0C surface line will
gradually lift northward throughout the day east of the low
pressure, but will be stubborn to lift across northern MI and
northern New England. The deformation axis will continue its swath
of snow from southeast Minnesota to central Wisconsin Sunday
afternoon, but it will be progressive and snow falling during the
daytime hours will be tougher to accumulate. Snow within the
deformation axis may continue over northern Michigan Monday morning
before finally exiting to the northeast over Ontario by Monday afternoon.

WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (60-80%) for >6"
of snowfall for areas along the shore of Lake Superior in the MI
U.P.. In terms of freezing rain, WPC probabilities show moderate
chances (40-60%) for additional ice accumulations >0.25" in
northern Wisconsin, northern Michigan, and in the New England
mountain ranges such as the Greens and especially the Whites.
There is also an area of low chances for an additional >0.5" of
ice accumulation as far eastern MI U.P.. All of these areas can
anticipate hazardous travel conditions with the potential for
additional power outages in those areas sporting better chances
for >0.50" of total ice accumulation.

...The West... Days 1-3...

An active stretch of wintry weather is expected from the West
Coast to the Front Range of the Rockies through Monday due to
persistent troughing. A pair of shortwaves traversing the Rockies
early this morning is responsible for ongoing mountain snow from
as far north and west as the Absaroka and Bitterroots through the
Wyoming ranges and on south to the Colorado Rockies. As high
pressure builds in over the Canadian Prairies today, easterly
upslope flow and residual moisture aloft will foster additional
mountains snow in the Black Hills and Big Horns. Some lower
elevations snowfall is expected during the day on Sunday as well,
but accumulations will be minor due to the late season sun angle
limiting accumulations. WPC probabilities do depict moderate
chances (40-70%) for snowfall totals >6" in the highest elevations
of the Absaroka, Wind River, and northern Colorado Rockies.

By this afternoon, focus shifts to an exceptional closed upper low
in the northeast Pacific that slowly makes its way east towards
the Pacific Northwest by Monday night. Heavy high elevation
mountain snow (above 6,000ft in the northern CA ranges and above
5,000ft in both the Cascade and Blue Mountains) will be underway,
but as the upper low inches closer to the Northwest U.S., falling
heights and colder temperatures aloft will cause snow levels to
lower into Monday. By 12Z Monday, NAEFS shows just about all
mandatory height levels listed are bottoming out below the 2.5
climatological percentile while IVT values >500 kg/m/s are aimed at
southern California. Then by early Tuesday the parent upper low is
expected to dive southeast across southwest OR and northern CA,
proving a final surge of Pacific moisture within an area of cold
air aloft. From northern California to the interior Northwest, the
region will also be located beneath the divergent left-exit region
of a 200mb jet streak whose wind speeds (>130 kts) are above the
99th climatological percentile. With the IVT located farther south,
the best moisture advection and upslope enhancement will be seen
from California's Siskiyou and Salmon mountains on south and west
along the spine of the Sierra Nevada. On Monday afternoon and into
Monday night, the flood of Pacific moisture aloft will advance
well inland through much of the Intermountain West. Just about
every notable mountain range in the central and northern Rockies is
likely to see measurable snow Monday night into Tuesday.
Meanwhile, cyclonic flow around the upper low will still support
ongoing upslope snowfall in the central and northern California
ranges through Tuesday night.

A very wintry few days are coming to the mountain ranges of the
western U.S.. Through 12Z Wednesday, WPC probabilities show the
northern ranges of California (Siskiyou, Salmon, Shasta) and the
length of the central and northern Sierra Nevada have high chances

70%) for snowfall totals >24". Most of these ranges above

6,000ft are currently forecast to see localized amounts between 3-4
feet through 12Z Wednesday. Heavy snow also reaches into the OR
Cascades with high probabilities for at least 12". Farther inland,
many Intermountain West ranges (Sawtooth, Blue, Uinta, Bear River,
Wind River, Absaroka, Big Horn, and CO/WY central Rockies) are all
likely to see snowfall totals of 6-12" with locally higher amounts
in these ranges as well. Expect hazardous travel conditions for
many road ways that remain open in these mountain ranges.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest... Day 3...

By Tuesday morning, the upper trough responsible for the barrage of
mountain snow in the West will position the 250mb jet streak's
divergent left-exit region over the Great Plains. Modest 500mb PVA
and strengthening WAA at low levels will give rise to lee
cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. Throughout the day Tuesday, a
strengthening LLJ, (NAEFS shows 850mb winds above the 90th
climatological percentile 18Z Tuesday from north Texas to the Red
River of the North), will deliver both increased moisture and
increasing WAA aloft. There also appears to be sufficiently cold
enough air present that precipitation will transition over from
rain to snow from the Black Hills on east across South Dakota and
as far east as central Minnesota Tuesday night.

There are ongoing differences in the position of this developing
deformation axis. All three deterministic guidance members
(EC/GFS/Canadian) along with the EC- AIFS all show this storm
growing in strength and size heading into Day 4, but they do this
in different ways both synoptically and on the mesoscale as well.
The ECMWF EFI does show a growing signal for a potentially
disruptive winter storm from the Dakotas on east across Minnesota
and into the northern Great Lakes, which is in line with where WSO
values of 30-80% exist on Days 3-4. Both snow amounts, along with
snow load and blowing snow are likely to be hazards that the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest contend with through Wednesday,
with freezing rain most likely on the eastern edge of the WAA
across WI and MI. Current WPC snowfall probabilities (through 12Z
Wednesday) for >4" are 40-80% across the eastern Dakotas and
central MN, with a majority of the snow expected into Day 4.
Residents and those traveling to/from these regions should keep
close eyes on the forecast as additional changes in the types of
impacts, the severity of those impacts, and where/when these
impacts occur are likely to fluctuate for the rest of the weekend.

Snell/Mullinax
$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 030740
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 03 2025 - 12Z Sun Apr 06 2025


...Northeast...
Days 1 & 3...

An icy wintry mix will continue from the White Mountains and
through much of interior Maine this morning as ongoing WAA and
intense 850mb FGEN sustains an icy setup over northern New England.
The lingering sub-freezing boundary layer will gradually erode as
the warm front advances northward with only northern Maine holding
on to any notable wintry mix through midday. WPC probabilities
depict low chances (10-30%) for additional ice accumulations >0.1"
in the White Mountains and western Maine through this morning.

Following a break in the action Thursday night through Saturday
morning, the next round of wintry mix arrives Saturday afternoon
as moisture from the Mississippi Valley streams northward into New
England. Similar to the Day 1 setup, low-mid level WAA and 850mb
FGEN are the primary mechanisms of lift that will promote
precipitation. The antecedent air-mass is not nearly as cold as the
Wed-Thurs air-mass. However, the modestly cold air-mass will be
tough to erode in the higher terrain, thus making the White
Mountains and western Maine the most likely areas to see a mix of
snow and freezing rain through Saturday night. WPC probabilities
show moderate- to- high chances (50-70%) for >0.1" of ice, with low
chances (10-30%) for ice accumulations >0.25".


...Intermountain West & Southern High Plains...
Days 1-3...

The weather pattern over the western third of the Lower 48 is
primarily driven by a pair of upper level disturbances; one
tracking across Montana today and early Friday, and the other is a
closed upper low over the Southwest. Starting in Montana, a cold
front at the leading edge of the 500mb shortwave trough will act as
a trigger for snow showers, some of which could have snow squall-
like impacts with bursts of snow and gusty winds Thursday
afternoon. With high pressure building in from Alberta, easterly
upslope flow into the Lewis Range and Absaroka through Thursday
evening. Snow associated with this upper trough is also expected as
far south as the Big Horns and even as far east as western North
Dakota Thursday night. By Friday morning, the cold front makes its
way south through the Central Plains and Central Rockies with
NErly upslope flow aiding in minor snow accumulations along the
Front Range of the WY/CO Rockies through Friday morning.

Farther south, the closed upper low will make its way toward New
Mexico with 200-500-700mb heights along the AZ/NM and Mexico
borders below the 10th climatological percentile. As the 700mb low
reaches western New Mexico Friday afternoon, winds over southeast
CO and northeast NM will turn easterly at the same time the
aforementioned cold front to the north plunges south. Southern CO
and northern NM will also be co-located beneath the divergent left-
exit region of a 500mb jet streak located over northern Mexico. The
heaviest snowfall looks to ensue Friday afternoon and into Friday
night across the Front Range, Palmer Divide, San Juans, and Sangre
De Cristo (including Raton Pass). By Saturday morning, snow is
forecast for most of the Southern Rockies and even parts of the
southern High Plains as the cold front continues to dive south and
the deformation zone on the northern and western periphery of the
700mb low moves in overhead. Note that with the time of year, it
will have to snow exceptionally hard (>1"/hr) for snow to
accumulate outside of the mountain ranges given the higher sun
angle and warmer soil temperatures. Still, periods of moderate snow
combined with 30-40 kt 850mb winds will cause poor visibilities
through Saturday afternoon before the snow finally tapers off
Saturday evenings.

WPC probabilities depict moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for
snowfall >8" along the >9,000ft peaks of the Sangre De Cristo and
San Juans between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Along
the I-25 corridor, the most concerning area for heavy snowfall is
along Raton Pass where up to 12" of snow in the forecast. WSSI
depicts Moderate impact potential in the Sangre De Cristo, Raton
Mesa, and San Juans. Note that there are some Moderate Impacts in
the plains of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle with Blowing Snow the
primary impact in these areas.


Mullinax


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 031909
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 04 2025 - 00Z Mon Apr 07 2025

...Portions of the Rockies and the High Plains...
Days 1,2...

A deep upper level trough over much of the Intermountain West and
associated embedded upper level low over the Southwest will
gradually shift east onto the Plains through Saturday. Shortwave
disturbances moving around both the upper low and a secondary wave
moving along the Canadian border will provide the forcing for
wintry weather over and immediately downwind of those upper level
features.

For Day 1/Tonight through Friday, a potent trough over the Canadian
Prairies will dig southeastward into Montana and the Dakotas. This
will lead to pressure and height falls in the region. Troughing
developing as a response will draw a small portion of the Gulf
moisture plume into the northern Plains, supporting a widespread
generally light snowfall over Montana and the Dakotas. For the
mountains from the Bitterroots of Montana south to the Front Range
of Colorado, localized upslope along the terrain will cause much
heavier snowfall rates and amounts, especially in the Beartooths of
Montana and Bighorns of Wyoming, where new snowfall could approach
a foot through midday Friday. WPC probabilities are over 50% for 4
inches or more of snow for the Front Range of Colorado and the
Beartooths of Montana and Wyoming.

For Day 2/Friday Night and Saturday, the shortwave moving along the
Canadian border will shift east into the Great Lakes, leaving the
area. However, the upper level low/southern extension of the
broader upper trough will begin to tap ever-increasing amounts of
Gulf moisture as the lift ahead of the low moves in closer
proximity to the trough. This will draw more of that moisture
westward into the southern High Plains as the low-level jet
increases in both strength and amounts of Gulf moisture it will be
drawing northward into the nation's mid-section. Upslope will play
an even greater role here, especially as the leeside surface trough
develops over eastern New Mexico. Some of the troughing from the
northern system from Day 1 in the northern Plains will propagate
straight southward along the Front Range and support the heavy
snow. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains of Colorado and New Mexico
will be the range hardest hit with heavy snow, with WPC
probabilities for over 8 inches of snow in the moderate-to-high
(50-70%) range through Saturday evening. The WPC Winter Storm
Severity Index (WSSI) shows areas along the state line near Raton
Mesa with major impacts from the large snowfall expected. The snow
will taper off in the area Saturday night.

...Northern New England...
Day 3...

A strong upper level trough over Hudson Bay Saturday will direct a
strong shortwave along its southeastern periphery towards New
England. Meanwhile, a portion of the moisture associated with the
excessive rainfall over the nation's mid-section will draw
northeastward into the Northeast and New England. Here, that Gulf
moisture will interact with some lingering cold air over the
region, resulting in a variety of precipitation types over the
area. For areas south and west over northern New Hampshire and far
western Maine, a significant icing event is expected as warmer air
above freezing moves in aloft above the cold air in place,
resulting in precipitation changing over from snow to sleet and
freezing rain as the warm air moves in and deepens Saturday night.
There is a moderate-to-high (50-70%) chance of at least a tenth
(0.10") of an inch of ice across much of northern New Hampshire and
far western Maine near the New Hampshire border through Saturday
night, with a low (10-30%) chance of at least a quarter of an inch
of ice.

Further north where the warmer/above freezing air is unable to
reach, a light snowfall is expected, namely for far northern Maine,
where there is a low-to-moderate (30-50%) chance of at least an
inch of snow Saturday night. The moisture plume will shift east
with the cold front Sunday morning, ending the winter precipitation
threat.

Wegman

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 040735
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 04 2025 - 12Z Mon Apr 07 2025

...Portions of the Rockies and the High Plains...
Days 1-2...

This morning, a cold front tracking south through the central High
Plains with NErly CAA will cause temperatures to drop and modest
upslope ascent into the Front Range of the Rockies. This air-mass
will be essential for boundary layer wet-bulb temperatures being
cold enough to support snow in the central and southern High
Plains. Farther south, a closed upper low will slowly make its way
east through Arizona and New Mexico on Friday while also injecting
a healthy plume of 300-700mb moisture over the Rockies. This will
support periods of mountain snow from as far west as the Wasatch
and as far south as the Gila Mountains of eastern Arizona. As the
700mb low heads into western New Mexico Friday afternoon, low-mid
levels winds over southeast CO and northeast NM will turn easterly
at the same time as the aforementioned cold front to the north
continues its southerly progression. In addition, the southern and
central Rockies/High Plains will reside beneath the divergent left-
exit region of a 500mb jet streak. Guidance shows a moistening of
the 700-300mb layer Friday afternoon that coincides with what is
likely to be the start of heavy snowfall from the San Juans and
Front Range on south along the Sangre De Cristo and Raton Mesa
Friday afternoon and into Friday night.

By Saturday morning, snow will be falling not only in the Southern
Rockies, but across the southern High Plains thanks to a narrow
area of 700mb WAA to the north of the 700mb low tracking from
southeast NM into western TX. This will prompt the formation of a
deformation zone on the western and northern flanks of the 700mb
low. Note that, with the calendar reading early April and the
increasingly high sun angle, it will have to snow at an
exceptional clip (>1"/hr)for snow to accumulate outside of the
mountain ranges. Still, periods of moderate snow combined with
30-40 kt 850mb winds will cause significantly reduced visibilities
across the southern High Plains of eastern NM and the OK/TX
Panhandles through Saturday afternoon. Snow should finally taper
off by Saturday evening as the 700mb low tracks east over central OK.

The ECMWF EFI does suggest this is a rather anomalous event in
terms of snowfall for the late March to mid-April time period. The
EFI shows a large swath of 0.8-0.9 values from Raton Pass on south
through much of eastern New Mexico. WPC probabilities show high
chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >12" along the >9,000ft peaks of
the Sangre De Cristo and above 8,000ft in the Raton Mesa. The
latest forecast calls for as much as 12" of snow at the peak of
the Raton Pass along I-25. The WSSI does indicate Major Impact
potential (considerable disruptions; dangerous to impossible
travel) along the Raton Pass Friday night into Saturday morning.
WPC probabilities also show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for
snowfall >4" along the I-40 corridor in eastern NM. The WSSI shows
Minor to Moderate Impacts from a combination of Snow Amount and
Blowing Snow across the High Plains of eastern NM and the OK/TX
Panhandles through Saturday with Minor Impacts denoted (winter
weather conditions, hazardous travel possible) in and around the
Amarillo area.


...Northern New England...
Day 2...

Saturday will bring yet another round of wintry weather from the
White Mountains through much of western and northern Maine. While
the air-mass is not as cold as the more recent winter storm that
took place earlier this week, high pressure over Quebec will
provide a weak source of sub-freezing boundary layer temps. As
850-700mb WAA and 300K isentropic ascent amidst brisk SWrly flow
aloft increases, a ribbon of 850-700mb areal-averaged FGEN will
support a band of moderate-to-heavy precipitation that runs
directly over the marginally cold air-mass in northern New England
on Saturday. Precipitation may briefly start out as snow (staying
all snow longest over northern Maine), but the burgeoning nose of

0C temps at low-levels will inevitably switch any snow to a

sleet/freezing rain mixture from the Whites to western Maine
Saturday afternoon. A weak CAD signature will linger longest along
the Maine/Quebec border that will linger through Saturday night. By
Sunday morning, the warm front lifts far enough north to have plain
rain be the primary precipitation type.

WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for ice
accumulations >0.1" from the Whites through western Maine. Some
minor ice accumulations (generally <0.1") are possible in the Green
Mountains and even as far south as the Berkshires. However, if any
locations are to see localized ice accumulations >0.25", it would
be the White Mountains and western Maine where low-to-moderate
probabilities (10-40%) are present. The probabilistic WSSI (WSSI-P)
does indicate moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for Minor Impacts
as a result of the >0.1" of ice accumulations.

...Northern Great Lakes...
Day 3...

A potent 500mb vort max with origins out of the Arctic Circle will
dive south from south-central Canada towards northern Minnesota
Sunday evening. A 250mb jet streak oriented N-S will place its
divergent left-exit region over the Midwest Sunday night and aid in
the development of low pressure along a strengthening 850mb front.
A narrow band of moderate snow should manifest on the northern
periphery of low pressure as it tracks through Wisconsin and
northern Michigan. In addition to the band of snow, CAA via brisk
northerly winds will trigger lake-enhanced snow showers over
northern Wisconsin and the Michigan U.P. Sunday night and Monday
morning. WPC probabilities highlight low chances (10-30%) for >4"
of snowfall through 12Z Monday in the Michigan U.P. and the tip of
Michigan's Mitten with additional snowfall possible across northern
Michigan through Monday afternoon.


Mullinax

$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 050732
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 05 2025 - 12Z Tue Apr 08 2025

...Southern Rockies and the Southern High Plains...
Day 1...

A 700mb low tracking across southern New Mexico this morning has
all the necessary ingredients at its disposal for a classic April
winter storm in the southern Rockies and High Plains. Modest
700-300mb moisture aloft will overrun an air-mass that is becoming
increasingly colder through two methods: CAA in wake of the cold
frontal passage, and the other being dynamic cooling aloft within
the developing deformation axis. The mountain ranges of the
southern Rockies (Sangre De Cristo, southern Front Range, San
Juans, Sacramentos) will see the heaviest snowfall rates which can
surpass 2"/hr in some cases through this morning. As the 700mb low
emerges over eastern New Mexico, periods of heavy snow and gusty
winds will produce hazardous travel conditions across the High
Plains of eastern New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the Texas
Panhandle through Saturday evening. There could be instances of

1"/hr snowfall rates over eastern New Mexico and the Texas

Panhandle during the day. Snow should taper off across West Texas
Saturday night, while a brief burst of snow over central Oklahoma
could produce a swath of light snow as far east as southwest
Missouri.

WPC snowfall probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%)
for >8" in terrain from the Raton Mesa on south along the Sangre De
Cristo and all the way to the Sacramentos which have 50-70%
chances for >12". Much of east-central New Mexico along I-40 shows moderate-to-high chances (40-70%) for snowfall totals >4"with low-
to-moderate chances (20-50%) in portions of the Texas Panhandle
between Amarillo and Lubbock. The WSSI shows a large footprint of
Moderate Impacts from the Southern Rockies and eastern New Mexico
to the Texas Panhandle with the Snow Amount and Blowing Snow impact
criteria being the primary drivers in the WSSI algorithm. Expect
hazardous travel conditions in these area today and into parts of
tonight.


...Northern New England...
Day 1...

Today, another round of wintry weather arrives from the White
Mountains of New Hampshire through western Maine that will continue
through Saturday night. The airmass is not as cold as the more
recent winter storm that took place earlier in the week, but high
pressure over Quebec will anchor a weak source of sub-freezing
boundary layer temps. As 850-700mb WAA and 300K isentropic ascent
amidst brisk SWrly flow aloft increases, a ribbon of 850-700mb
areal-averaged FGEN will support a band of moderate-to-heavy
precipitation that runs over the marginally cold air-mass in
northern New England on Saturday. Precipitation may briefly start
out as snow (staying all snow longest over northern Maine), but the
burgeoning nose of >0C temps at low-levels will inevitably switch
any snow to a sleet/freezing rain mixture from the Whites to
western Maine Saturday afternoon. A weak CAD signature will linger
longest along the Maine/Quebec border through Saturday night. By
Sunday morning, the warm front lifts far enough north to have plain
rain be the primary precipitation type.

WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for ice
accumulations >0.1" from the Whites through western Maine with up
to 40% probs for >0.25" in the Presidential Range of the Whites.
The WSSI is depicting moderate impacts from this icing event within
the hardest hit areas of the Whites and western Maine.


...Michigan...
Days 2-3...

A vigorous 500mb vorticity maximum originating out of the Arctic
Circle several days ago will track south from southern Canada
towards Minnesota Sunday night. A 250mb jet streak oriented N-S
will place its divergent left-exit region over the Midwest Sunday
night and aid in the development of low pressure along a
strengthening 850mb front. A narrow band of moderate-to-heavy snow
will manifest itself on the northern periphery of the developing
storm system as it tracks across Michigan's Mitten early Monday
morning. In addition to the primary band of snow, CAA via brisk
northerly winds will trigger lake-enhanced snow showers over
Michigan's U.P. and the northern-most portions of Michigan's
Mitten through Monday afternoon. Snow should finally taper off by
Monday evening as the storm races east. WPC probabilities show
low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for snowfall accumulations >4" in
northern Michigan through Monday evening.

The wave of low pressure will continue its eastward progression
across the Great Lakes Monday afternoon and along the Northeast
U.S./southeast Canada border Monday night. Periods of light snow
are possible from the eastern Great Lakes to the northern
Appalachians Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Light
accumulations between a coating to as much as 2" are possible with
the highest elevations of the northern Appalachians having the best
odds of seeing the higher end of those snowfall accumulations.


Mullinax


$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 060735
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 06 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 09 2025


...Northern Great Lakes...
Days 1-2...

A potent 500mb vorticity maximum tracking south from southern
Canada will provide modest upper level ascent when working in
tandem with a N-S oriented 250mb jet streak over the Great Lakes
Sunday evening. At lower levels, low pressure will develop beneath
the favorable diffluence and along a strengthening 850mb front. A
narrow band of moderate-to-heavy snow will ensue on the northern
periphery of the developing storm system as it tracks across
Michigan's Mitten late Sunday night and Monday morning. In addition
to the primary band of snow, CAA via brisk northerly winds will
trigger lake-enhanced snow showers over Michigan's U.P. and the
northern tier of Michigan's Mitten through Monday afternoon. As
daytime heating lessens late in the day, snow shower coverage
should diminish with only an unusually cold air-mass filtering in
behind the departing storm system. WPC probabilities show low-to-
moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >6" across the
northern-most portions of Michigan's Mitten. Similar probabilities
are present across much of the eastern Michigan U.P. for snowfall

6" through Monday evening.

...Interior Northeast...
Days 2-3...

Following a minor snowfall accumulations from northern Pennsylvania
on east through the northern Appalachians Sunday night, the
primary low responsible for the snow over Michigan makes its way
east through southern Ontario Monday afternoon. A strong cold front accompanying the storm system will escort rain showers along and
ahead of the front, but a dramatic temperature drop behind the
front will lead to a changeover to snow starting Monday afternoon
across the Lower Great Lakes, then over the northern Mid-Atlantic
Monday evening. It is still early to determine if there is a
notable snow squall threat, but the quick changeover from rain to
snow could cause a rapid reduction in visibilities for affected
areas.

By Monday night, the aforementioned 500mb vorticity maximum in the
"Northern Great Lakes" section will continue to foster exceptional
PVA ahead of the trough. The storm system will continue to
strengthen as it tracks across the St. Lawrence River Valley early
Tuesday morning and across northern New England later in the day
Tuesday. There is a compact TROWAL on the back side of the storm
that will foster a narrow deformation zone on the backside of the
storm. In addition, CAA on the backside will provide some lake-
enhanced snow Tuesday morning and into Tuesday afternoon. The storm
will race east over the eastern Canadian Maritimes Tuesday night
and snow will quickly taper off. WPC probabilities show an
expansive area of low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall
totals >4" from the Tug Hill on east across the Green/White
Mountains and northern Maine. These locations also sport low chance probabilities (10-30%) for localized snowfall amounts >6" through
Tuesday evening.

WPC probabilities for ice accumulations above 0.1" throughout the
CONUS are below 10%.


Mullinax




$$
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FOUS11 KWBC 072007
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 08 2025 - 00Z Fri Apr 11 2025

...Interior Northeast...
Days 1,2...

A compact low tracking from Lake Huron this afternoon east along
the Canadian border and across Maine through Tuesday afternoon will
cause an area of mostly light snow to fall along its track, as most
locations near the track stay below freezing, favoring mostly snow
as the precipitation type. The initial front is largely over the
Ontario Peninsula (the area bounded between Lakes Huron, Erie, and
Ontario) at the time of this writing. Temperatures with this band
are largely above freezing, so any snow embedded within it is not
sticking, especially to roads. Going into tonight, however, without
solar insulation, it's likely on the higher elevations of the
Chautauqua Ridge, and eventually Adirondacks and points further
east, snow will begin sticking and have some impacts.

The greatest impact from this low for most areas is likely to be
the potential for flash freezing. As sub-freezing air moves in with
the snow, road/ground temperatures could rapidly drop, resulting in
a thin glaze of ice on some colder surfaces. This of course may
have travel impacts. With the snow itself, in some of the stronger
convective cells, visibility in any snow may drop enough to cause
travel impacts as the winds with the snow and cold front become
gusty. Fortunately, the snow is not expected to become very strong,
as a stronger low along the moisture plume off the Eastern Seaboard
saps a lot of energy from this polar low as they track parallel to
one another.

As far as snow amounts are concerned, impacts from this low will
start tonight, increase through the day Tuesday, then peak Tuesday
evening as the snow rates wane as the parent low moves off to the
east. A few inches of accumulation are possible in the valleys from
the Champlain Valley east to coastal Maine. Meanwhile, locally
much greater impacts from much higher accumulations are expected
from the Tug Hill Plateau of central New York to the west, to the
Adirondacks, the northern Greens and Whites of VT and NH,
respectively, and much of western Maine. Local accumulations on the
highest elevations could approach a foot of new snow by the time
the snow is all said and done.

WPC Probabilities are moderate-to-high (50-70%) across far northern
New Hampshire and much of western Maine for 6 inches or more of
snow. Since the heaviest snow will be falling during the day
further west across northern New York and Vermont, those
percentages are much lower (10-30%) in those mountains. Minor
impacts are expected in these areas, though where snow falls
heavier in any convective snow showers, locally greater impacts are
probable.

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Extensive lake-effect snow is expected behind the aforementioned
low that is moving through the Great Lakes currently. 850 mb temps
will be falling to the west (cold side) of the low to between -12C
and -18C across all of the Great Lakes tonight. Despite this being
the climatologically unfavored time of year for lake-effect (due to
usual warm air in place over the cold lakes), the air will be cold
enough in this case for all of the lakes to support multiple bands
and cellular lake-effect convection from the U.P. of Michigan,
where lake-effect snow is ongoing presently, to western Michigan
off its namesake lake, and later tonight off the lower lakes
through the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill Plateau. As usual with
lake-effect, the typical impacts such as rapidly reduced
visibilities, snow-covered roads, and blowing snow are likely in
the aforementioned impacted areas. The heaviest lake-effect and
greatest snowfall amounts are expected on the Tug Hill where
amounts approaching 10 inches are possible through Tuesday.

A developing low along a slow-moving warm front extending from the
Arrowhead of Minnesota through southern lower Michigan and
eventually into portions of northern New York may cause additional
areas of snow Wednesday Night into Thursday morning. As is typical
during April, temperatures will be hovering right around freezing,
so precipitation type between snow and rain will be a major
determining factor as to accumulations in any one area. A general
1-3 inches of snow are possible in these areas from the low and
front.


...Northern Rockies and Cascades...
Days 1,2...

A pair of shortwave troughs rotating east along the base of a
longwave trough over the northeast Pacific will direct plumes of
Pacific moisture into the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday. Snow
is expected to remain at higher elevations, especially over the
Olympics and Cascades. Higher elevations such as Mt. Rainier may
see multiple feet of snow through the period due to very persistent
and heavy upslope snow. Accumulations will be extremely elevation
dependent, as many valley locations see mostly rain or snow light
enough to not be able to stick to warm surfaces. Measurable snow
will impact many of the mountain ranges of the Pacific Northwest,
including the Blue, Sawtooth, Bitterroots, Absaroka, Teton, and
Lewis Ranges. Strong ridging building in behind the troughs by
Wednesday and Wednesday night will end any remaining high elevation
snow.


Wegman

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FOUS11 KWBC 090740
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 09 2025 - 12Z Sat Apr 12 2025

...Great Lakes & Interior Northeast...
Days 1-2...

A fast approaching upper-level trough producing modest PVA aloft
at the same time as the diffluent left-exit region of a 120kt jet
streak moves in over the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and
through Wednesday night. As a wave of low pressure tracks east
along a strenghtening low-level warm front, a swath of
precipitation along the warm front and on the northern flank of the
storm will be capable of producing periods of snow. The setup
continues to feature very marginal boundary layer temperatures,
making it essential for dynamic cooling and the transition to snow
after sunset Wednesday evening to help snow accumulate. The wide
ranging solutions in guidance include little to no snow or as much
as several inches from southern Wisconsin on east to southern
Michigan and both northern Indiana and Ohio (showcasing the
complexities of the setup detailed above). WPC probabilities show
low chances (10-30%) for snowfall totals >2" across southern
Michigan, while most areas in the Lower Great Lakes see a coating
to 2" throughout the Lower Great Lakes.

A similar setup for light snow occurs over the Northeast mountains
Wednesday night into Thursday. Mountain ranges such as the
Catskills, Adirondacks, and Berkshires could see between a coating
to 2" of snowfall through Thursday night. A break in the snow
arrives Friday morning before another round of mountain snow
arrives late Friday into Saturday.


...Northern & Central Appalachians...
Day 3...

As the upper-level trough over the Ohio Valley deepens Thursday
night, excellent upper-level divergence via PVA ahead of an
embedded shortave disturbance will spawn a strengthening area of
low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic. Out ahead of the upper trough is
an IVT >400 kg/m/s that will deliver copious amounts of moisture
into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Friday and into
Saturday. While there is some residual sub-freezing air in the
Northeast, there is only enough to support snow in the more
elevated terrain of the central and northern Appalachians.
Elevations above 2,000ft are most favored for snowfall, but some
areas as low as 1,000ft in elevations could see rain transition to
snow Friday night. This is a sensitive setup given the time of year
with lack of sub-freezing temps and dynamic cooling being
necessary to support heavier snowfall rates. WPC probabilities show
10-20% chances for snowfall >2" in the tallest peaks of the
Catskills, Adirondacks, Green, and White Mountains through Saturday
morning.


WPC probabilities for ice accumulations above 0.1" throughout the
CONUS are less than 10%.


Mullinax



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FOUS11 KWBC 100809
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 10 2025 - 12Z Sun Apr 13 2025


...Great Lakes & Interior Northeast...
Days 1...

Light snow is expected this morning across portions of north
central PA into southwest NY. Marginal temperatures support mostly
rain by mid morning, but before then areas could see a coating to
inch of accumulation. As the system moves slowly east do expect
more coverage of light snow by tonight as temperatures cool over
eastern NY into New England. Guidance has trended a bit cooler,
and so anticipate the ptype to become mainly snow or a rain snow
mix overnight, with the exception of coastal areas which will most
likely stay rain. Most areas will pick up a coating to inch of
snow, although probabilities of exceeding 2" have increased over
the Berkshires, southern Green Mountains, Catskills and southern
Adirondacks, with a 40-60% of amounts locally exceeding 2".


...New York into New England... Day 2 and 3...

A large scale trough and developing closed low will bring another
round of precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Friday
into Saturday. More uncertainty with the details of this system,
with notable spread in the 00z guidance. The general trend has
been a further south and east track of the developing low, likely
making this a colder system. However temperatures will still be
marginal, and any axis of notable accumulating snowfall will
probably be rather narrow on the northern periphery of the
precipitation axis. The 00z GFS is the most aggressive solution,
bringing ample precipitation into the colder airmass resulting in
a more significant snowfall solution from eastern NY into northern
New England. On the other end of the model spectrum some solutions
have trended far enough south and east to result in a suppressed
enough solution that little to no precipitation falls in the form
of snow. The most likely scenario is in between this more
suppressed solution and snowier GFS solution.

The expectation is that precipitation lifting north into the
colder air will be snow by later Friday night into Saturday
morning. While some mix with snow is possible in lower elevations,
the best chance of accumulating snow will be in areas of
terrain...with the Catskills, Berkshires, Green Mountains and the
Worcester Hills into the White Mountains the most favored areas.
The probabilities of 2" have increased over these areas, generally
in the 50-80% range, with 4" probabilities over 40% on a localized
basis. A solution in between the 00z GFS and ECMWF (closer to the
ECMWF) best aligns with this axis of higher probabilities...with
the 00z AIFS also well aligned with the current WPC forecast. The
00z ECMWF being a bit further south brings more accumulating
snowfall into the Poconos of northeast PA into portions of
northwest NJ. While this is a lower probability outcome it can not
be ruled out, thus some chance amounts over these areas see some
upward adjustment in future forecasts.


...Cascades to Northern Rockies...
Day 1-3..

Periods of light to moderate snow area expected over the Cascades
today through saturday, with snow levels lowering with time. Some
accumulating snowfall is likely as low as around 2,000 feet, with
total snowfall over 6" expected in the more favored terrain areas.

A strong mid level shortwave moving across the Northwest will
bring a snow threat to the Northern Rockies by Saturday into
Saturday night. Southerly flow ahead of this shortwave will result
in a warm system initially, with most snow falling above 6,000
feet. However behind the shortwave temperatures will rapidly drop,
resulting in lowering snow levels and bringing the threat of some
accumulating snowfall to more of central MT. More uncertainty with
this lower elevation snowfall as model differences in the low
track and strength will impact the amount of precipitation on the
cold side of the system. So the greater confidence for
accumulating snowfall remains over the higher terrain over 6,000
feet, with probabilities of exceeding 6" through 12z Sun as high as
50-80% over the Little Belt Mountains and the Lewis and Swan
Ranges of northwest MT.

Chenard

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FOUS11 KWBC 110646
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 11 2025 - 12Z Mon Apr 14 2025


...Northern Mid-Atlantic to New England...
Days 1-2...

Ongoing light snow this morning will taper off just after 12Z, but
will then turn to the next area of wintry weather later tonight
into Saturday. Upper trough axis will slowly approach the East
Coast with front-side/downstream upper low development over the
Mid-Atlantic. This will favor another surge of moisture northward
into marginally cold air over the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic
as mostly snow to the north away from the coast (roughly south of
I-90/I-84) but perhaps a small area of sleet as well. Ptypes will
be dependent on rates where temperatures are marginal, with some
areas alternating between rain/snow. In addition, accumulation may
be limited to grassy areas given mild ground/road temperatures and
also may be limited within a few hours of solar noon as we approach
mid-April. However, some more vigorous WAA over higher terrain
could yield several inches of snow on Saturday for places like the
Catskills, Berkshires, and southern Green/White mountains where WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are generally 20-50%.
The northern extent of the snow is still a bit in question as the
system tries to consolidate toward the Gulf of Maine Sunday before
moving out of the area.


...Cascades to Northern Rockies...
Day 1-3..

Broad SW flow this morning will continue light snow for the
Cascades today while the trough axis slowly approaches out of the
northeastern Pacific. By Saturday, a stronger mid-level shortwave
will come into WA and strengthen across ID/MT, promoting light to
modest WAA-driven snow over NW MT into northern WY as the upper jet
slips southeastward into the Plains. Temperatures will fall behind
the front and lower snow levels to below 4000ft as precipitation
lightens and then ends from west to east on Sunday/Sunday night.
The system will be fairly progressive but it could snow moderately

1"/hr) for a time Saturday evening. WPC probabilities for at

least 8 inches of snow for the period are highest around Glacier NP
and across the Little Belt Mountains (>50%).


The probability of at least 0.10" of freezing rain across CONUS is
less than 10%.


Fracasso


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FOUS11 KWBC 120644
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 12 2025 - 12Z Tue Apr 15 2025


...Northern Mid-Atlantic to New England...
Day 1...

Storm system just off the DelMarVa this morning will continue to
lift northeastward to a position just east of Cape Cod by early
Sunday morning. With an amplified jet, moisture already across much
of the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will turn to snow
as temperatures cool just enough on northeasterly surface flow.
Snow will pick up in intensity toward daybreak, and by the start of
this period (12Z Sat), moderate snow is likely (rates >1"/hr) over
parts of the Catskills, Berkshires, and Green and White Mountains
through mid-day. By this afternoon, drier air toward the mid-levels
will help decrease any snow or rain/snow mix across much of the
area except for northern New England where temperatures will rise
to around freezing where snow continues to fall. Precipitation will
mostly end by early Sunday but continue over northern Maine into
the afternoon. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are
highest (>50%) over the higher elevations above 1000-1500ft or so
with 1-3" over lower elevations and a rain/snow mix with little
accumulation in the lowest elevations (valleys and near the water
south of I-90).


...Northern to Central Rockies...
Days 1-2...

A strong mid-level shortwave over WA this morning will strengthen
across ID/MT today, promoting light to modest WAA-driven snow over
NW MT/northern ID into northern WY as the upper jet slips
southeastward into the Plains. Temperatures will fall behind the
front and lower snow levels to below 4000ft as precipitation
lightens and then ends from west to east on Sunday/Sunday night. By
then, the cold front will slow across the central Rockies, helping
to wring out some snow over CO. The system will be fairly
progressive overall but it could snow moderately (>1"/hr) for a
time this evening over NW MT and NW WY. WPC probabilities for at
least 6 inches of snow for the period are highest around Glacier
NP, across the Little Belt Mountains, and near Yellowstone NP
(30-60% probs). Over the CO Rockies, amounts will be lighter
overall, but some areas could still see several inches of snow
(above 10,000ft). There, WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of
snow are 40-60%.


...Western Great Lakes...
Day 3...

The mid-level low exiting MT Sunday will strengthen more over the
northern Plains as a 120kt jet streak develops over Iowa. An area
of surface low pressure will deepen and help foster an expanding
area of precipitation over the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. Temperatures will be marginal to mild initially, but once
the low tracks into Lake Superior, north to northwest winds will
bring in colder air to northern areas of MN and eventually into the
U.P. of Michigan Monday night into early Tuesday. Snow will become
more widespread with accumulation likely over most of the MN
Arrowhead and northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan. There, WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow through 12Z Tue are
moderate (40-70%).


The probability of at least 0.10" of freezing rain across CONUS is
less than 10%.


Fracasso


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FOUS11 KWBC 130710
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 13 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 16 2025


...Maine...
Day 1...

Upper trough will finally start to push east of 70W today with the
last wave lifting toward the Gulf of Maine. Rain along the coast
and snow inland will slowly ease out of the area overnight tonight
into early Monday, with some modest QPF amounts that have trended
up in just the past 24 hrs (with a slower exit of the system
altogether). Temperatures remain marginal for most areas, but snow
should still accumulate over northwestern Maine and in the higher
elevations even during the daytime when precip rates may be
highest. Still, SLRs will be not much better than about 7-9:1,
making for a west and heavy snowfall. WPC probabilities for at
least 4 inches of snow after 12Z today are at least 40% over much
of northern Maine, with low probabilities (10-30%) of at least 8
inches in some of the highest elevations.


...Northern to Central Rockies...
Day 1...

A strong/compact upper low will move out of western MT this
morning, with some with some trailing snow along a surface trough
axis back toward the middle of the state that will end late this
afternoon. To the south, a weaker shortwave will move from UT to
CO, helping to wring out some snow for the high Rockies and lighter
snow below 7500ft as colder air comes in. WPC probabilities for at
least 4 inches of snow after 12Z today are moderate (40-70%)
across some of the central MT mountains (e.g., the Little Belts)
and over the northern CO Rockies (above 10,000ft).


...Western Great Lakes...
Days 1-2...

The mid-level low exiting MT today will strengthen more over the
northern Plains as a 120kt jet streak develops over Iowa. An area
of surface low pressure at the tip of this jet will deepen over
northern WI and help foster an expanding area of precipitation
throughout the region. Temperatures will be mild initially (upper
50s into central MN/WI), but once the low tracks into Lake
Superior, north to northwest winds will rapidly bring in colder air
to northern areas of MN and eventually into the U.P. of Michigan
Monday night into early Tuesday. Rain will change to snow and
become more widespread with accumulation likely over most of the MN
Arrowhead and northern WI into the U.P. and northern Lower
Michigan. By Tuesday, with the surface low well into Ontario,
northerly winds will advect in 850mb temperatures of around below
-6C which may be enough to spur some lake enhancement (Lake
Superior temperatures around 4-5C). The snow will end from west to
east on Tuesday. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow
through 00Z Wed are moderate (30-60%) in northeastern MN. For
areas downwind of Lake Superior (far northern WI through the U.P.
of Michigan), higher amounts are likely Monday night through
Tuesday, with WPC probabilities depicting 20-60% chances for at
least 8 inches of snow in the favored areas just inland from the
lake shore and with any elevation (e.g., Porcupine and Huron
Mountains). For northern Lower MI, WPC probabilities for at least
4 inches of snow are low (10-30%).


...The Northeast...
Day 3...

Low pressure will continue through Canada with its cold front
rushing across the Northeast on Tuesday. Behind it, colder air will
filter in with lingering precipitation downwind of the eastern
Great Lakes with some upslope in the central Appalachians as well.
Temperatures will be marginal for some lower elevations and also
near the lake waters, but light accumulation is likely over much of
western and northern NY (Chautauqua Ridge, Tug Hill Plateau,
Adirondacks). There, WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of
snow are 10-60%, highest in the Adirondacks.


The probability of at least 0.10" of freezing rain across CONUS is
less than 10%.


Fracasso




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