ACUS02 KWNS 200544
SWODY2
SPC AC 200542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of
the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central
states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the
Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will
be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent
should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts
of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected
across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND FROM THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
eastern and southern Texas and into southern Arkansas and Louisiana
Friday, and from Nebraska into parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday evening/night.

...Synopsis...
A slow-moving southern-stream short-wave trough will continue
shifting across the southern Plains Friday, toward the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Farther north, a series of vorticity maxima
will move east-northeastward across the north-central U.S. within
background west-southwesterly northern-stream flow.

At the surface, a low initially over the northern Plains is forecast
to move eastward along a surface warm front, reaching the Upper
Mississippi Valley by evening, and then continuing across the Great
Lakes through the end of the period.

...Southern and eastern Texas east to southwestern Arkansas and Louisiana...

As the upper trough moves slowly eastward across Texas through the
day, heating beneath the cool air aloft will result in moderate destabilization. As such, ongoing convection early in the period
will likely increase during the afternoon, particularly in areas
relatively undisturbed by prior convection/cloud cover.

While mid-level flow will remain somewhat modest, low level flow
veering and increasing with height will provide ample shear for
organized storms and occasional rotation. Along with potential for
large hail and damaging winds locally, with a few of the strongest
storms, a tornado or two will also be possible. Once locations of
more concentrated afternoon/evening storms can be identified in
future outlooks, an upgrade to SLGT may be required.

...Portions of Nebraska northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes...

Late afternoon/evening thunderstorms are forecast to evolve in the
vicinity of a baroclinic zone stretching from Nebraska to the Upper
Great Lakes, as modest airmass destabilization occurs. With ample
mid-level flow aloft supporting organized storms, hail and locally
damaging gusts will be possible with a couple of the stronger storms
over the Mid Missouri Valley area. Farther east, ahead of the low,
most of the convection will be elevated north of the warm front,
with hail possible with stronger storms into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 03/27/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MUCH OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail are possible on
Saturday night across portions of Missouri and adjacent eastern Kansas.

...Synopsis...
Weakly cyclonic/fast flow aloft will reside over the U.S. at the
start of the period, with a short-wave trough crossing the Ohio
Valley, and a second over the northwestern states. With time, the
eastern of these two features will shift into/across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic region. An associated cold front will likewise
cross the Northeast, but lack of buoyancy will prevail. A few
lightning flashes cannot be ruled out as the system crosses the
Mid-Atlantic region, but at this time, coverage appears likely to
remain below 10%

Meanwhile, the western upper system is forecast to advance
east-southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through
the day, and into the northern and central Plains through the second
half of the period. In tandem, a developing surface cold front is
expected to shift across the Plains states overnight.
Scattered/elevated thunderstorms should develop across the Missouri
vicinity overnight, ahead of this system.

...Eastern Kansas into Missouri...

As the upper trough moves into/across the Plains, a strong southerly
low-level jet is forecast over the Upper Mississippi Valley
vicinity. Meanwhile, a secondary southwesterly branch of the
low-level jet is expected to evolve across Oklahoma/Missouri by late
evening. Warm/moist advection atop a stable boundary layer should
lead to sufficient destabilization to allow scattered convective
development, with greatest CAPE expected from northeastern Kansas
into northern and central Missouri. Given fairly steep mid-level
lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow yielding ample shear for
updraft organization, a few of the stronger storms may become
capable of producing large hail.

..Goss.. 03/21/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A stalled front will provide the main impetus for severe storm
development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid Atlantic Thursday and
Thursday night. Broad troughing over the central US will gradually
amplify as strong flow aloft overspreads the frontal zone. Deep
moisture and seasonably warm temperatures along and south of the
elongated frontal zone will support the potential for strong to
severe storms over a large area.

...ArkLaTex to the MS/TN Valleys...
Elevated storms are likely to be ongoing near the stalled front
early in the period across parts of the Red River and ArkLaTex
vicinity. Flow aloft will turn more southerly, aiding in increasing
low-level warm advection through the day despite relatively neutral
mid-level height tendency. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s F, moderate buoyancy is likely with only partial diurnal
heating. This should sustain the early storms, allowing them to
spread east, and potentially become surface based over parts of the
MS/TN Valleys. Effective shear of 55+ kt will favor a mix of
supercells and bowing segments capable of damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes.

Additional storms are likely along the dryline over northeast TX and
within the warm sector across parts of southern AR and northern LA
by mid afternoon. Deep veering wind profiles suggests these storms
will likely be supercellular, though the weak capping will favor
multiple interactions and relatively quick upscale growth into one
or more clusters with time. Until then, strong low/mid-level shear,
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a
risk for all hazards.

With multiple rounds of convection likely to pass through the area,
confidence in the placement of the front is low. Some consideration
was given to higher probabilities across parts of northeast TX,
southern AR and northern LA, given the potential for several
supercells or a well organized bowing segment.

Another round of elevated storms is likely late Thursday into early
Friday as the flow aloft becomes increasingly meridional over the
southern Plains. Strong low-level warm advection and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support a risk for large hail as storms overrun the
stalled front across central and northwest TX, into southern OK
overnight.

...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
Complications abound from overnight convection likely persisting
into the daylight hours across the OH Valley. The front is forecast
to continue to sag south and stall eventually across the OH Valley
and Mid Atlantic by midday Thursday. South of the boundary low 60s F
surface dewpoints and some filtered diurnal heating should support
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Several embedded mid-level perturbations
may provide enough ascent for additional convective development
through the day. Vertical shear will remain strong as increasingly
zonal winds aloft overspread the frontal zone. Several clusters of
strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk
primarily for damaging winds and tornado or two, given the
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday.
A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley,
as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and
southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near
the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move
slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper
60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s
F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the
front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day,
due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of
this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create
strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama
during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will
support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have
a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning
and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are
curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2
range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible
with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to
remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments
will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into
early evening, but should become more isolated as instability
weakens across the region.

Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak
will support some storm organization. However, instability is
forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat
will be marginal.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 071738
SWODY2
SPC AC 071736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.

Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.

Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 120524
SWODY2
SPC AC 120522

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes...
Isolated, elevated thunderstorms are expected to be the predominant
convective scenario on Sunday. An amplifying shortwave trough will
move east across northern portions of the Great Plains and Upper
Midwest. This will yield deepening of a surface cyclone from the
central Plains to Lake Superior. Despite this amplification, poor
quality boundary-layer moisture return relative to a stout EML
appears likely to inhibit surface-based storm development through
the period. Thin, uncapped buoyancy will probably be relegated to
parcels around 700 mb. This will expand east during the day from the
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Small hail is possible, mainly
across the Upper MS Valley, where fast flow will exist in the
cloud-bearing layer.

...CO to MO...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in CO by late afternoon Sunday
within a post-frontal environment characterized by limited low-level
moisture and meager buoyancy. Very isolated thunderstorms may
develop Sunday night into Monday morning with eastward extent across
KS to MO. Scant elevated buoyancy may develop as 700-mb
frontogenesis strengthens within a highly diffluent upper-level flow
regime, atop an increasingly post-frontal stable surface.

..Grams.. 04/12/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 200518
SWODY2
SPC AC 200517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday
morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern
Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another
upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop
eastward to the northern Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS
Valleys/Southeast TX...

A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the
Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will
move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with
a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor
of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the
upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and
will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger
storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts.

The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over
the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality
boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far
south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear
will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of
locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical
shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized
updrafts, precluding severe probabilities.

...Northern Plains...

Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support
steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains
vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the
afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small
hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the
western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight
eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing
low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early
Tuesday morning.

..Leitman.. 04/20/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 210555
SWODY2
SPC AC 210554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across
portions of the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

Low-amplitude west/southwest mid/upper flow will prevail across the south-central and southeast states on Tuesday. A belt of stronger
westerlies aloft will reside across the northern tier of the U.S. as
a series of upper troughs migrate eastward from the northern Plains
to the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over Quebec and an
associated cold front will be located from the Hudson Valley into
the NC/VA Piedmont. Further west, low-level moist advection on south/southeasterly low level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture
to spread northward from the Lower MS Valley into the southern High Plains.

...Southern Plains to southern KS...

Modest Gulf moisture will spread north and west through the day to
near the NM/TX border and across much of OK into southern KS.
Forecast guidance suggest a weak shortwave impulse will eject across
the southern Rockies in modest west/southwesterly flow aloft. While
height tendencies will remain neutral, precluding much in the way of
surface cyclogenesis, a sharpening dryline is forecast to extend
from southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles, then southward near the
NM/TX border. Low-level moist advection beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg).
While deep-layer flow will remain modest, vertically veering wind
profiles will contribute to supercell wind profiles, with
elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated supercells will pose a risk
for large hail. Furthermore, strong heating will result in steep
low-level lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer, supporting
isolated strong to severe outflow gusts. As a southerly low-level
jet increases during the evening, some potential will exist for
convection to develop into an eastward developing MCS. If this
occurs, some severe potential could persist eastward away from the
dryline into portions of western north Texas and western OK.

...IA/WI/IL...

A stalled frontal boundary will extent across the Mid-MO Valley into
southern WI. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent
along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm
development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow
will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb,
supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold
temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around
500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail.

...Carolinas...

A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will develop
southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the
afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer
ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500
J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height,
support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be
sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse
rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells
capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/21/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 220534
SWODY2
SPC AC 220532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central and southern High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central/Southern Plains...

A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist
across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal
boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High
Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into
southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward
transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains.

Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing
precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread
convection across KS, while other place morning convection further
south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially
have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may
hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which
could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate
boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and
modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will
support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk
(strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled
frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains
along the dry line.

Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline
across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints
will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest
isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be
possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary
layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given
nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline
is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended
northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage.

..Leitman.. 04/22/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 230522
SWODY2
SPC AC 230520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern
Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma.
Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper
flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection
from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across
parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm
advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending
southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a
frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow
boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to
reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed
convection evolves into the Day 2 period.

Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more
modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains.
While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35
kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west
TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further
north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow
may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds.

With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX,
potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or
redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered
thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible
with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become
more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a
25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities
across an expanded area.

..Leitman.. 04/23/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma,
northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...

An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the
building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10
to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to
meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the
surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into
northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also
will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance
suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be
ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is
uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend
across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially
where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries
will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30
kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where
stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could
support sporadic strong gusts.

...OH Valley...

An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada
and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft
will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a
surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move
across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest
boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest
destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain
fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few
stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small
hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.

..Leitman.. 04/24/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 250553
SWODY2
SPC AC 250551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the
southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east,
mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east
through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and
into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high
pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough.
As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the
eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten
across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward
moisture transport.

...Southern High Plains...
As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will
strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely
lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front
from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This
ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward
moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus
for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across
the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this
time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several
additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However,
there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat
across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and
adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy
and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to
be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may
be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and
perhaps a tornado.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2025

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