ACUS01 KWNS 261253
SWODY1
SPC AC 261252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON/OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Pacific
Northwest this afternoon and evening, with supercells possible west
of the Cascades across Oregon into Washington. These storms may
produce large hail, perhaps a tornado or two, and strong wind gusts.

...Pacific Northwest...
A very active early season severe risk is expected regionally today.
A seasonally strong upper low over the coastal Pacific Northwest
will shift eastward today, highlighted by a 100+ kt mid-level speed
max that will overspread coastal areas by evening. Strong height
falls will similarly spread across this region and the associated
synoptic cold front should arc from off the Washington Coast to
southward along the Oregon Coast by evening.

Low-level mean-mixing ratios are notably high, as compared to
typical daily climatological values (highest 5-10%), this morning
based on 12z observed soundings from Salem and Medford, Oregon.
Large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to a further
moistening of profiles and PW values may approach 1 inch prior to
convective initiation. Cold mid-level temperatures and a plume of
steepening mid-level lapse rates will also notably overspread the
region. Of particular concern are the cold mid-level temperatures,
and the steep lapse rate plume that will overspread this region.
Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures should be
breached by 21-22z west of the Cascades, and surface-based CAPE
should reach/exceed 1000 J/kg coincident with a favorably sheared
environment for organized, rotating updrafts.

Isolated to scattered robust convection seems likely to develop by
21-22z across western Oregon, immediately ahead of the strong
forcing. This activity should grow upscale and develop
north-northeastward ahead of the approaching speed max, with
profiles favoring supercell development. Hail should be common with
this activity and the strongest updrafts may generate quite large
hailstones, possibly exceeding golf ball size, or even larger with a
few of the most intense storms. Some tornado risk will also exist,
particularly where low-level winds maintain at least a modest
easterly component. Damaging winds may also occur.

...Texas Lower Rio Grande River Valley...
Water vapor imagery depicts a substantial sub-tropical cirrus plume
from the southern Baja Peninsula, across Mexico toward the lower Rio
Grande Valley. A weak disturbance will approach the international
border through mid day, and this will draw a substantial moisture
plume across South Texas. Forecast soundings exhibit modest lapse
rates despite the moistening profiles. While forecast shear is not
particularly strong, especially with northward extent, some
organization is possible and this activity could generate gusty
winds and/or hail. Otherwise, a considerable amount of convection is
expected across this region which may tend to disrupt and limit
organizational potential.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/26/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 201245
SWODY1
SPC AC 201243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

...Eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon...
A midlevel trough and an associated surface cold front will progress
eastward from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast by late this
evening/early tonight. Only a narrow corridor of low-level
moistening is expected ahead of the front, as a result of only
partial air mass modification and poor trajectories from the Gulf
and western Atlantic. There could be sufficient heating and
moistening for very weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) and
convection deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes in a
band along the front this afternoon, especially across eastern NC.
While there is a low chance for isolated wind damage, the very weak
buoyancy does not support the addition of severe wind probabilities.

..Thompson/Dean.. 03/20/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 271258
SWODY1
SPC AC 271256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible in south Texas.
Across parts of the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, isolated
to scattered large hail and localized severe wind gusts are
possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening.

...South Texas...
The slow-moving upper trough will eject across northern Mexico
toward deep South Texas by the end of the period. Strongest
mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough, south
of the international border into the lower Valley of Texas by early
evening. A low-level jet will remain focused across south Texas and
multiple rounds of deep convection are expected. While regenerative
convection and outflow will limit the northern extent of more
appreciable destabilization, adequate buoyancy, a modestly steep
lapse rate environment, and deep-layer shear will support robust
updrafts and storm organization. Hail/wind appear to be the main
threats, although a tornado or two can not be ruled out.

...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms,
continue early this morning mainly across northwest Missouri and far
southern Iowa. These storms will continue to transition
east-southeastward, with severe-storm potential remaining limited as
the low-level jet/warm advection abate this morning.

As the regional upper ridge tends to flatten later today into
tonight, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region.
Convective inhibition may become sufficiently weak by late
afternoon/early for isolated thunderstorm development near the warm
front/wind shift including a corridor across northern Kansas,
southeast Nebraska to southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri.
Supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate
instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms
will occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms
expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard
in both regimes.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/27/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 211239
SWODY1
SPC AC 211238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Synopsis...
Within a largely zonal flow regime, embedded shortwave troughs will
move from the Great Plains to the OH Valley, and inland over the
Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. The Great Plains trough
will move over NE/IA by this afternoon/evening with an associated
surface trough/weak cold front. Despite very limited low-level
moisture, surface heating beneath cold midlevel temperatures
(approaching -30 C at 500 mb) will allow for steep low-midlevel
lapse rates and weak surface-based buoyancy this afternoon/evening.
A few high-based, low-topped thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon through late evening. The steep lapse rates and
moderately strong midlevel flow suggest some potential for gusty
outflow winds and small hail/graupel with the convection, but the
threat appears too limited to warrant severe probabilities.

Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes will be possible later today
into tonight from the WA Cascades into the northern Rockies.

..Thompson/Bentley.. 03/21/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 081948
SWODY1
SPC AC 081946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms
may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early
evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black
Hills.

...20z Update...
No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold
front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern
Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far
southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits.

..Guyer.. 04/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/

...South Florida/Keys...
A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move
offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms
continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger
storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor
mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate
overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will
approach the region later tonight. But with the front having
progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe
risk) over land should remain very low.

...North-central High Plains..
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies
into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow
expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High
Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during
the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to
the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that
have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should
temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of
stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur.

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 091235
SWODY1
SPC AC 091234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest as well as across portions of the Midwest and central
Plains. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Plains is
forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the
Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Some modest amplification of this
shortwave is expected as a jet streak progresses through it base. An
attendant surface low, currently over southeast NE, will move
eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, reaching the Mid MS
Valley tonight and the middle OH Valley by early tomorrow morning.
An associated cold front will push southeastward through MO, KS and OK.

Limited moisture return will keep buoyancy muted ahead of the front,
keeping the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development
along the front low. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening low/mid-levels will likely result in isolated elevated thunderstorms
across IL during the early evening. Persistent warm-air advection
along the front should allow for isolated thunderstorms to continue
throughout the evening and overnight across central/southern IN, KY,
and western/middle TN. An isolated instance or two of small hail is
possible but any severe threat should be tempered by limited
buoyancy.

Farther west, a separate, lower amplitude shortwave trough is
expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the
northern/central Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to this
shortwave will spread into the northern and central Plains near peak
heating. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated from the
Black Hills across NE where deep mixing is likely, as well as
farther north from eastern MT/western ND into MN where cold
mid-level temperatures are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible within these corridors. Overall severe potential will be
very low, but the high-based character of these storms could result
in a strong downdraft or two.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/09/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 131241
SWODY1
SPC AC 131239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible from the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Great Lakes, and from the central Rockies to the
lower Missouri Valley. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern
High Plains to the Upper MS Valley by early Monday, as a remnant lee
cyclone develops northeastward from eastern NE to Lake Superior.
Limited low-level moisture return is underway within the warm sector
of the cyclone, though sufficient ascent/saturation is not occurring
until near the IA/MN border where elevated thunderstorms may develop
later this morning. This elevated convection will then spread
eastward over WI through the day and Lower MI by late evening.

Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into early tonight along a southward-moving cold front across CO,
and overnight into MO where moistening and weak ascent atop the
frontal surface (near 700 mb) could support elevated convection
09-12z.

..Thompson/Dean.. 04/13/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 210530
SWODY1
SPC AC 210528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the upper Ohio Valley and
across portions of the central Gulf States. Gusty winds and
marginally severe hail are the primary risks.

...Upper Ohio Valley...

Mid-MS Valley short-wave trough is forecast to eject into the upper
Great Lakes region by mid day as 70+kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern IN into southern ON. 500mb wind fields will
strengthen across the upper OH Valley in response to this feature as
heights are suppressed ahead of the short wave. Latest model
guidance suggests the associated cold front will surge into western
OH/KY by 18z, subsequently advancing into western PA later in the
evening. Modest boundary-layer heating should contribute to adequate
buoyancy for robust updrafts, and scattered convection should
develop ahead of the front as temperatures warm through the 70s.
Gusty winds may accompany this activity, along with some risk for
marginally severe hail.

...Central Gulf States...

Synoptic front will trail across the TN Valley through the central
Gulf States today serving as the focus for thunderstorms as
convective temperatures are breached along this weakly-forced
boundary. While 0-6km bulk shear should only be modest across this
region, seasonally high PW values and MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg
suggest some risk for gusty winds and hail. Boundary-layer heating
should prove instrumental in convective updraft strength today.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/21/2025

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ACUS01 KWNS 221248
SWODY1
SPC AC 221246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern
tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm
sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward
across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with
fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the
surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to
southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend
southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward
mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially
across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front
is anticipated through this evening.

Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for
convective development this afternoon and evening, even with
large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to
locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon
with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even
though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain
fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening
with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient
deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely
spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both
the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about
favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless,
this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large
hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve
through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe
wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was
made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the
forecast position of the front/dryline later today.

...Southeast to the Carolinas...
A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move
little today across the Southeast. Generally modest
west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with
slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This
should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective
organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast
and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that
can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for
damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have
connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/22/2025

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