ACUS02 KWNS 080548
SWODY2
SPC AC 080546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be
strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.
Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large
hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible
across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.
Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday
morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a
more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level
jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday night.

At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT
into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or
dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High
Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into
northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a
warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will
reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley.

...Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley...

A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm
front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with
MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the
poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead
short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the
surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster
scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the
western Dakotas.

Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to
the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells,
which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the
western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large
hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is
expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment.
Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs
with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what
the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level
shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10%
unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group
one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if
confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm mode.

At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along
coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging
wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night.

...Central Plains...

Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the
upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results
in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the
latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate
the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS,
perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form
in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse
rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal
deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into
Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of
high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.

There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms
may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern
KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly
unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential
would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the
possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is
low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional
probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been
added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event.

...Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley...

A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop
Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or
quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the
region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher
unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for
large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that
can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 090541
SWODY2
SPC AC 090540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in
excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across
portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday
afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds are possible into the central and southern Plains,
and from the lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Synopsis...

An upper low along the MT-SK border Wednesday morning is forecast to
deepen while redeveloping to along the ND-MB border Wednesday night.
That intensification process will be driven by mid/upper-level jet
streaks moving through the base of broader-scale trough, in tandem
with an amplifying short-wave trough. A lead disturbance initially
over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning will accelerate
northeast into the Upper MS Valley by evening, along with the
leading edge of stronger mid/upper-level jet streak winds.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern SD Wednesday
morning will develop north-northeast into southeast MB by evening,
while a trailing cold front advances through the upper MS Valley
into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing extension of the boundary
from the mid MO Valley into KS will move more slowly through the day
before stalling and then lifting north Wednesday night in response
to cyclogenesis over the central Plains. A dryline will intersect
the front over southwest KS Wednesday afternoon, with that feature
extending southwest into western TX.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central and
Southern Plains...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of MN and WI, aided by warm advection along a nocturnal
low-level jet. Residual convective outflow boundaries from the
early-day storms and the approaching cold front are expected to
focus the most intense thunderstorm development, which may occur by
early afternoon across northern and central parts of MN. Subsequent south/southwestward storm development is expected by mid/late
afternoon along and ahead of the front from southern MN and western
WI through central/eastern IA, northern MO, into eastern/southern
KS, and perhaps into western OK and northwest TX.

Rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s will coincide with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE increasing to 2000-4000+ J/kg across the
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will strengthen through the afternoon
into evening with the arrival of the jet streaks, especially across
the upper MS Valley into upper Great Lakes where effective bulk
shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt are forecast.

The expected CAPE-shear combination will support numerous severe
storms that begin as supercells capable of large to very large hail
and some tornado threat, with an eventual transition to a more of a cold-pool-driven convective system with embedded bowing structures
by evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, potentially into
Great Lakes. Damaging wind potential, including the possibility for
75+ mph wind gusts would likewise increase with that mode
transition, as would a continued tornado threat with line-embedded meso-vortices. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes is
expected to develop with any sustained supercells across portions of
eastern MN, WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL in the proximity of a strengthening low-level jet, which will enhance near-ground shear.

Storms are expected to be increasingly more isolated in nature with southwestward extent along the front and dryline from eastern KS
into western OK and northwest TX. Nonetheless, the degree of
instability coupled with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will favor
organized multicell and/or supercell structures capable of large
hail during the afternoon and evening hours.

A separate large-hail threat is expected to develop Wednesday night
into Thursday morning over the mid MO Valley within a zone of strong
warm advection and moisture flux occurring within the terminus of a
50+ kt low-level jet.

...Lower Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic Coast...

Forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level disturbance
moving through the region is expected to foster widely scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon amidst a moist and
moderately unstable air mass. Model soundings indicate some
enhancement of the mid-level wind field, with deep-layer shear
increasing to around 30 kt in some areas. As such, a few severe
storms appear possible with an associated risk for damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 120558
SWODY2
SPC AC 120557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts. Large to very large hail may also
occur early in storm development from Kansas into Iowa.

...Mid-MS Valley into KS/OK...

Generally low-amplitude mid/upper flow will extend across the
central/southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley area initially Saturday
morning as the region is sandwiched between an upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and the northern periphery of upper ridging across the
Southeast. As the Upper Midwest trough modestly deepens and pivots
east, some strengthening of mid and upper westerly flow is forecast.
At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture northward across OK/KS into the Mid-MS
Valley ahead of northeast to southwest oriented cold front. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop this moist airmass will support a corridor
of moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) across KS,
MO into southern IA and perhaps IL.

Some uncertainty remains regarding possible ongoing convection
across parts of northeast OK/southeast KS early Saturday morning in
the form of a decaying MCS from the Day 1/Friday period. It is
possible an MCV associated with this feature could move across MO
during the day and pose some severe risk toward the MS River by
afternoon. However, confidence in this scenario is low given low
predictability of mesoscale feature at this time scale.

Confidence is somewhat higher that convection will develop during
the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front from eastern KS
into IA. Initial supercells appear possible. Low-level shear will be
modest, but given rich boundary layer moisture and strong
instability, a couple of tornadoes are possible. More likely, a
large to very large hail risk will be possible with initial
supercells given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. As the surface front
develops southeast during the late afternoon into the evening, one
or more bowing MCSs are expected to develop, posing a risk for
scattered severe/damaging winds (isolated gusts to 70-80 mph will be
possible). This activity should continued southeast across the Lower
MO Valley toward the Ozarks vicinity through evening/overnight. The
northward extent of greater severe potential is uncertain, and this
portions of the outlook may need further refinement in subsequent outlooks.

...Lake Michigan Vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early
evening along the advancing cold front. Cool temperatures aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates atop low 60s F boundary layer
moisture. This will foster MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg.
Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A surface dryline will extend from southwest KS into eastern NM on
Saturday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave impulse ejecting
across the southern Rockies ahead of a western U.S. upper trough. As
this occurs, isolated to scattered storms will develop near the
surface boundary. This activity will likely be higher-based given
deep mixing and strong heating into the 90s. Isolated strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a few
instances of hail also are possible.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 190548
SWODY2
SPC AC 190547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large
to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will de-amplify as it emerges from the Rockies to
the central Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, mid-level flow will
strengthen across the Rockies with strong lee cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado. A frontal zone will extend eastward from the
surface low somewhere near southern Nebraska with a dryline
extending southward into the southern Plains.

...Central Plains...

Low-level flow will strengthen across the Plains during the day
Saturday as the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado. This
will result in northward moisture transport and destabilization
across Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. By
mid-afternoon, expect storms to develop within the upslope flow
regime across eastern Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and the
Nebraska Panhandle. Forecast soundings show cool temperatures aloft,
steep lapse rates, and strong shear which will support supercells
capable of large to very large hail in this area.

By later in the afternoon, expect storm development along the
uncapped dryline across eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and
along the frontal zone in central/southern Nebraska. Moderate
mid-level flow across the warm sector within this zone will support
a supercell storm mode. These initial supercells will pose a threat
for large to very large hail. In addition, some tornado threat will
exist with this activity, particularly along the front and as the
low-level jet strengthens during the evening. Expect these
supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs during the evening and
track southeastward into central and eastern Kansas, with an
increasing wind threat (with some 75+ mph gust potential), and
perhaps a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat.

..Bentley.. 06/19/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 190536
SWODY2
SPC AC 190534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...WI...AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds
will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well.
Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the Carolinas.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early
Monday will strengthen as it progresses east/southeast over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As this occurs, mid/upper
west/northwesterly flow will intensify, with most guidance showing
50-60 kt at 500 mb, and 850-700 mb potentially increasing to 40+ kt.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across
Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will
sweep east/southeast during the afternoon and evening, becoming
positioned from northern Lower MI to northern MO by Tuesday morning.
Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by 70s
dewpoints will be in place. This moisture will modestly decrease
east of Lake MI. Within the moist axis, strong to extreme
instability is forecast (particularly from IA into WI).

Some uncertainty remains concerning placement and extent of
potential ongoing convection early Monday, and will depend on
evolution of storms overnight in the Day 1/Sunday period, and the
timing of a possible lead shortwave impulse. Morning convection
could have implications for where corridors of greater severe
potential will develop during the afternoon/evening. Nevertheless,
the region will experience strong warm advection ahead of the cold
front, and airmass recovery is likely.

Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. A
favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment could support initial
supercells capable of all severe hazards, and possibly significant
severe. However, given the progressive nature of the upper trough
and surface cold front, along with intensifying 850 mb flow by late afternoon/evening, upscale growth into one or more bowing MCSs
appears possible. Significant damaging wind potential will increase
with a transition to linear storm mode. The south and east extent of
severe potential is also uncertain, but if a mature MCS develops
during the evening, it seems reasonable the severe wind risk could
persist into portions of Lower MI, northern IN and northwest OH overnight.

...North Carolina vicinity...

Weak northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-Atlantic on
Monday. Modest lee troughing across the Piedmont will allow a
surface front to lift north across part of NC into VA, and spreading
rich boundary layer moisture across the region. Strong heating will
result in moderate destabilization and scattered thunderstorms will
develop during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain modest,
but sufficient clustering, high PW values, and steep low-level lapse
rates will support isolated damaging wind potential.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 200541
SWODY2
SPC AC 200539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN/EASTERN
OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

An upper trough will be oriented over the region on Tuesday, with
several shortwave impulses migrating through the larger-scale
system. At the surface, low pressure will move across southern
Ontario into Quebec. A trailing cold front will move across much of
the Midwest through the period, becoming positioned from western PA
to TN and northern AR/OK by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the main
surface front, surface prefrontal troughing is expected to develop
across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Rich
boundary-layer moisture will overspread much of the area, with
dewpoints from the mid-60s to low 70s F commonplace. This will aid
in development of moderate to strong instability.

Deep-layer flow will be strong for this time of year, with 40-60 kt
flow at 500 mb, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Forecast
soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with favorably curved
low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km across much of
the region. Convective evolution remains a bit uncertain, but a mix
of supercells and one or more bowing linear segments are expected
across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Significant severe (2+
inch hail, 65+ kt winds, etc) potential is unclear, and will largely
depend on storm mode and mesoscale evolution of convection.
Temperatures aloft are relatively warm, around -5 to -7 C at 500 mb,
and this may inhibit sig hail potential. Meanwhile, 65+ kt gusts
could occur if a well-organized bowing structure and stronger cold
pool can develop. Given warm/moist low-levels and limited low-level
lapse rates, confidence in this scenario is low. As a result, the
CIG 1 area from the prior Day 3 outlook has been removed for now.
Where supercells can be maintained, a risk for a few tornadoes also
is possible.

While details regarding storm mode and evolution remain somewhat
uncertain, the overall environment will support a severe risk across
a broad region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Swaths of damaging winds
still appear to be the greatest risk, though all hazards are possible.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)