ACUS01 KWNS 041200
SWODY1
SPC AC 041158

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High
Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

...MT/Dakotas/MN...

Fast zonal flow is present today over the northern U.S, with a
shortwave trough now over western MT approaching the northern High
Plains. Easterly low-level winds have transported 50s dewpoints
westward into southeast MT/northeast WY, where daytime heating and
increasing large-scale ascent will lead to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. Coverage of storms is not expected to be very high,
but those cells that can develop will likely be supercells capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into the
central Dakotas through the evening with a continued severe threat.

Farther east, a surface boundary is forecast to extend from
south-central SD into central MN. Strong heating in this corridor
will promote scattered thunderstorms after 20z. Forecast soundings
suggest an environment favorable for hail and damaging winds in the
strongest cells.

...KS/NE/IA...

A weak upper trough has emerged from the central/southern High
Plains overnight and is now moving across western KS. Radar loops
show an MCV near Hays KS that will track into southeast NE and
western IA later today. A combination of low-level convergence,
daytime heating, and the affects of the MCV will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms from northeast KS into IA. CAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg are expected, along with sufficient deep-layer shear
for multicell or perhaps supercell storm structures. The potential
exists for hail and damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells this
evening. An upgrade to SLGT was considered, but the shield of
clouds/precip in vicinity of the MCV limits confidence in heating
and the area of greatest concern at this time.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 051201
SWODY1
SPC AC 051200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley.

...NE to IA...

A large upper ridge is present today across the southern U.S., with
stronger westerlies over the northern tier of states. One shortwave
trough is noted over SD tracking east-southeastward. This feature
will provide large-scale ascent to parts of the Midwest states
today, leading to scattered clusters of thunderstorms. One area of
expected convective initiation will be late this afternoon along a
retreating surface boundary extending from south-central NE into
southern IA. Ample low-level moisture will reside in the frontal
zone with dewpoints in the low 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg.
Activity should develop around 00z along the boundary and track
slowly eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear suggests a risk of
supercells capable of large hail. Low-level winds are not expected
to be particularly strong, limiting a more robust tornado risk.
Activity will likely congeal and track eastward across southern
IA/northern MO and eventually northern IL through the evening with a hail/damaging wind risk.

...Northern IL to Lower MI...

A large decaying MCS is moving across northern MO this morning.
While this activity will likely remain non-severe through the
morning, potential for re-intensification exists this afternoon as
activity moves into northern IN and southern lower MI. If
sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates and
mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic damaging winds.

...MI/WI...

A broad area of 60s dewpoints and broken cloud cover will lead to
moderate CAPE values this afternoon from southern MN into much of
WI. As the aforementioned shortwave trough approaches this
afternoon, cooling aloft and strengthening wind fields will promote
organized structures with any convection that can form. Model
guidance varies considerably on the cover of storms in this area,
but a conditional risk of large hail and damaging winds is present.
Will maintain only MRGL risk for this area for now, but an upgrade
to SLGT could be needed today if later model guidance indicates
greater coverage of afternoon/evening storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 061201
SWODY1
SPC AC 061200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM INDIANA INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop later today from parts of the lower Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley into southern New England. Large hail and severe
wind gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains and
southern Plains.

...Indiana to Southern New England...

Morning water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough over the
Great Lakes region. This trough and an associated mid-level speed
max will spread across the upper Ohio Valley into New England this
afternoon and tonight. Strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of
the trough has led to multiple clusters of ongoing thunderstorms
from eastern IL into parts of OH/PA/NY. One or more of these
clusters, along with new development by early afternoon, is expected
to intensify and spread across the SLGT risk region. Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and low-level lapse rates to
support a risk of damaging wind gusts with this activity. Overnight
CAM solutions continue to vary on the likely corridor of greatest
concern. However, there is the potential for a rather widespread
damaging wind event across parts of PA/NY/NJ this afternoon/evening
if sufficient heating and mesoscale organization of the clusters occur.

...Northern High Plains...

A large upper ridge is in place today over the High Plains region.
A southerly low-level jet is expected to intensify by early evening
as an upper trough approaches and low-level cyclogenesis occurs over
southeast MT. This should encourage the development of evening
thunderstorms across eastern MT tracking into western ND overnight.
It is unclear whether the bulk of these storms will be just west of
the warm sector and elevated, or will be surface-based. Regardless,
large hail is the primary concern.

...Southern Plains...

A weak upper low is tracking northeastward from west TX into
Oklahoma this morning. A band of stronger winds aloft to the east of
the low, coupled with pockets of daytime heating and ample moisture,
will promote damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 081204
SWODY1
SPC AC 081203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...

Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the
southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will
remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of
easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and
northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward
transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the
foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep
mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable
deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will
be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward
into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air
and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This
will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later
updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE
convection is assessed.

By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale
into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest
KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with
storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours.

...Northwest AR...

A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over
southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a
risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into
northwest AR before weakening later today.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle...

A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions
along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated
thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional
threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

...Eastern KS...

A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today
with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM
guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat
to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of
large hail and damaging winds.

...Southern IL/Western KY...

An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 121250
SWODY1
SPC AC 121248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...East including Appalachians to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...

A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over Quebec
later today, with some strengthening of westerlies aloft and weak
mid-level height falls to its south across parts of the Appalachians
and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States. The strongest deep-layer flow
will remain north of the international border, but modest effective
shear (generally 20-30 kt) will overlap relatively strong heating
and modest buoyancy across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic.
Scattered outflow-driven clusters may develop with time and move
eastward, with an attendant threat of damaging wind and perhaps a
few instances of marginally severe hail.

Deep-layer flow/shear will be even weaker into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas vicinity. However, very strong heating of a
moist airmass will support potential for scattered thunderstorms
with downburst potential, and eventual evolution into loosely
organized clusters capable of damaging outflow winds this afternoon
through at least the early evening hours.

...South-central High Plains...

Moist southerly low-level flow beneath steepening mid-level lapse
rates will result in robust destabilization from the Raton Mesa
vicinity into the adjacent south-central High Plains, with MLCAPE
increasing to near 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Modest westerly
mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt
(highest values north), conditionally supportive of organized
convection. Large-scale ascent will remain subtle, but eventual
storms may develop by late afternoon near the higher terrain, and
spread east-southeastward with time.

Initial storms could evolve into isolated supercells, with a threat
of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.
Consolidating outflow and a nocturnally strengthening southerly
low-level jet will support some upscale growth during the evening,
with an attendant severe-wind threat expected to spread across parts
of the south-central High Plains, potentially including parts of
southern Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.

Farther south, more isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible across parts of central/eastern New Mexico into Far West
Texas, with a threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts,
mainly late this afternoon through early evening.

...Central/eastern Nebraska and far western Iowa...

Elevated convection may develop late in the period, in the predawn
hours of Saturday, from parts of central/eastaen Nebraska into
western Iowa, within a warm-advection regime to the north of a warm
front. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of
elevated moistening/destabilization (which may be affected by MCS
development to the south across Kansas) and coverage of storms prior
to the end of the forecast period 12z Saturday. Effective shear will
be sufficient for at least modest storm organization and an isolated
hail threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Hail-related probabilities may ultimately be warranted for tonight, but will
defer an additional outlook cycle for additional
observational/upper-air data.

...Upper Midwest...

Relatively low-topped convection may develop late this afternoon
from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota near/ahead of a cold front,
as low-level lapse rates steepen beneath seasonably cool
temperatures aloft. Robust west-northwesterly flow aloft will
conditionally favor some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy
can develop. However, most guidance depicts MLCAPE generally below
500 J/kg, with an inconsistent signal for where the deepest
convection might develop. Some threat for marginal hail and/or
locally damaging wind could evolve across some part of this region,
and probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding
sufficient destabilization and storm coverage.

...Oklahoma/North Texas...

On the western/southern periphery of morning convection, robust
pulse-type thunderstorm redevelopment cannot be ruled out across
parts of southern Oklahoma and North Texas near outflow/surface
front. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
result in localized hail/wind, but it currently appears that
organized severe thunderstorm potential will remain low.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 141256
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected across the Upper Ohio River Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley to New England...

A shortwave trough will steadily amplify over the Great Lakes with a
moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow across the
region. Near/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, increasing
thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon, increasing
in both coverage and intensity. Ample mid-level height falls and
around 40 kt of front-parallel effective shear could support a few initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado and/or hail could also occur
given the relative strength of the wind profiles.

...Mid-Atlantic to southern Appalachians/Carolinas...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, generally focusing on a pre-frontal trough as
well as high terrain/Blue Ridge vicinity, with some additional sea
breeze augmentations across the Carolinas/coastal plain. From
roughly southern/eastern Virginia southward, upper 60s to lower 70s
F dewpoints and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will
yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storm development. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited
midlevel height falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable
air mass will favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

Somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies will reside over the
Mid-Atlantic region, contributing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
amid moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several organized clusters capable of scattered damaging wind gusts,
and some locally higher concentrations of wind damage will be
possible with any longer-lived clusters that evolve.

...Southern High Plains...

Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail across
parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. Additional storms
are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central Texas to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer
shear should limit storm longevity/organization.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 180551
SWODY1
SPC AC 180549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC...OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or
marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New
York into New England, with damaging gusts or even a tornado. A few
tornadoes may occur over parts of the Gulf Coast states, and
scattered storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from
Oklahoma into northwest Texas.

...From KY into the Mid Atlantic...

Moderate mid to high level westerlies will exist from the OH Valley
to Mid Atlantic, south of the primary wave over the Northeast. This
region will be south of the midlevel drying, with ample low-level
moisture remaining in place ahead of the slower moving portion of
the front. Scattered storms may be ongoing early in the day from KY
into WV, with perhaps wind or even tornado potential as SRH will be
high at that time. As heating occurs during the day, boundary layer
mixing as well as veering and weakening winds at 850 mb may reduce
tornado risk. However, ample deep-layer shear and nearly
unidirectional wind profiles will favor both cells and fast-moving
clusters of storms producing damaging gusts and locally severe hail
throughout the day.

...Northeast...

Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave
trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and
parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into
southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the region.

Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints
into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm
profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth.
However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient
destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds
ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells
should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east,
producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The
low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late
afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a
stronger SRH environment farther east.

...Parts of MS/AL/GA/FL...

Wind fields associated with the remnants of Arthur will increase
from LA into GA today, as a weak surface low and midlevel wave move
across MS/AL/GA. This system will provide a focus for storms which
will spread northeast out of LA/MS into AL, the FL Panhandle, and
eventually into GA. Although temperatures aloft are warm, areas of
strong low-level shear and mid 70s F dewpoints will support
organized bands of storms, some with embedded stronger cells.
Transient supercells will be possible with localized tornado risk.
Storms are likely to be ongoing over southeast LA and southern MS at
the start of the period, and these will develop northeastward
throughout the day.

...OK into northwest TX...

An east-west oriented cold front will move southward across the TX
Panhandle, Oklahoma and northwest today, pushing well south of the
stronger westerlies aloft over the central Plains. The air mass
ahead of the front will feature 70s F dewpoints, while daytime
heating brings MUCAPE values into the 3000-4000 J/kg range. South of
this cold front, low pressure is forecast to develop over western TX
where the strongest heating will occur.

Isolated morning thunderstorms may be present from the KS/OK border
area eastward toward the Ozarks, and marginal hail cannot be ruled
out due to substantial elevated CAPE. Any storms that form near the
boundary as it moves south during the day may produce locally strong
gusts. The greatest risk of locally severe gusts or marginal hail
appears to be across southwest OK into northwest TX, where the front
will be more favorably timed with peak heating. Shear will be weak,
but extensive outflow is possible.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 211242
SWODY1
SPC AC 211240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
An MCS with a convectively augmented parent MCV extends from parts
of central MO into southeast KS/northern OK this morning. The
airmass downstream of this MCS across MO is not particularly
unstable, but greater low-level moisture and related instability is
present across northeast OK and vicinity. Current expectations are
for the MCS/MCV to continue eastward across the mid MS Valley and
Ozarks through the morning while posing an isolated threat for
severe/damaging winds. With time, some re-invigoration of the MCS
appears possible into the lower OH Valley as destabilization occurs
with daytime heating. Trailing outflow from the morning convection
will serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms later today as a compact/enhanced low-level jet moves eastward from the Ozarks into
the mid MS/lower OH Valleys.

There still appears to be potential for more robust thunderstorm
development this afternoon across these areas along and south of the
outflow boundary/front. Moderate instability will likely develop in
the presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be
sufficient to support supercells. Enhanced low-level shear will also
be present owing to the eastward-migrating low-level jet. This will
foster a risk for tornadoes with any sustained supercells, and a
strong tornado appears possible. Considered greater tornado
probabilities and a categorical upgrade in a narrow corridor across
parts of MO/IL/IN, but there remains too much uncertainty regarding
sufficient destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. The severe/damaging wind threat will also increase, with the potential
for multiple clusters to form and track eastward into the lower OH
Valley through the evening and early overnight hours.

Convective development should also occur farther west along/near the
composite outflow boundary/front across the Ozarks into southern
KS/northern OK by peak afternoon heating. Strong instability and
moderate deep-layer shear will likely support updraft organization
and a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Large to very large
hail should be the primary threat initially, but deep-layer shear
vectors aligned largely parallel to the boundary should foster
convective mergers and an increasing threat for severe/damaging
winds with multiple clusters that should form and spread
east-southeastward across OK and the Ozarks through the evening. At
least an isolated severe wind threat may persist overnight with
southward extent across the southern Plains into AR given the large
degree of buoyancy forecast.

A mid-level shortwave trough over WY this morning will move
east-southeastward towards the central High Plains by this
afternoon. Enhanced westerly flow aloft attendant to this shortwave
trough will overspread the central High Plains through the day. A
convectively reinforced front extends from northwest OK into the
central High Plains, and modest low-level upslope flow is forecast
to the north of this boundary today. Recent short-term guidance
continues to suggest that moderate instability will develop with
filtered daytime heating in the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong effective bulk shear. Isolated supercells that can
develop in this regime across eastern CO into western NE/KS should
pose mainly a large to isolated very large (2+ inches) hail risk
initially, before some clustering/upscale growth possibly occurs
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds would become an
increasing concern if this mode transition occurs, and isolated
significant gusts (75+ mph) appear possible.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/21/2026

$$


--- ScorpioWeb v0.33a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 221240
SWODY1
SPC AC 221238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main threat.

...ArkLaTex into the Mid-South and Southeast...

A weakened but persistent MCS continues this morning across AR into
northeast TX. This cluster will track east-southeastward towards the
lower MS Valley over the next few hours while gradually weakening.
But, it should still pose some risk for isolated to widely scattered
damaging winds in the short term. The convectively augmented MCV
attendant to the ongoing MCS will also move east-northeastward
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/central Gulf Coast states
through the day. Gradual destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s) should
occur, even with widespread cloudiness hampering daytime heating to
some extent. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow associated
with the MCV and broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.
Multiple clusters and perhaps marginal supercells capable of
producing mainly scattered damaging winds should develop along/south
of a front this afternoon, and spread eastward across much of the
Southeast through at least the early evening. A tornado or two may
also occur in close proximity to the MCV track, but low-level flow
is forecast to be fairly veered and modest.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the OH
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Recent visible satellite imagery shows
fairly expansive cloud cover over much of the northern Mid-Atlantic,
with clearer skies farther south into southern VA and vicinity. 12Z
observed soundings across this region show poor lapse rates aloft,
which should hamper any more than weak instability developing this
afternoon, even with filtered daytime heating. Still, strengthening
mid-level westerly winds and large-scale ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of
the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. These multicell
clusters should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as
they spread east-northeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through
the afternoon and evening. Marginal hail may occur with the
strongest cores. A couple of tornadoes appear possible along/near a
sharpening warm front in the MD/PA/NJ/DE vicinity, where low-level
shear may become locally enhanced.

...Northern/Central High Plains...

Within a generally zonal mid-level pattern, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains in a modest
low-level upslope flow regime. Moderate instability will be aided by
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with an attendant
threat for large to very large hail. These supercells may be fairly
widely spaced, but will likely track south-southeastward through at
least the early evening before weakening. A couple of tornadoes may
occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of the NE
Panhandle into northeast CO, where the best combination of low-level
moisture, effective SRH, and favorable convective mode should
overlap for a few hours. Latest short-term guidance continues to
show low potential for upscale growth/MCS development tonight, but
trends will be monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 06/22/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 251250
SWODY1
SPC AC 251248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop today across parts of
the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging
winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should
exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...

Severe potential today across the southern/central Plains will be
heavily influenced by ongoing convection this morning extending from
western KS into northeast OK. These thunderstorms are largely tied
to modest warm/moist advection at low levels, evidenced by recent
VWPs across this area (KDDC/KVNX/KINX) and the 12Z observed OUN
sounding. Latest surface analysis indicates a weak surface low is
present across southeast CO, with a front extending eastward from
this low across KS. A secondary boundary/warm front was also
analyzed along/near the KS/OK border, with generally 70s surface
dewpoints and greater instability present to its south. The
thunderstorms across western KS have recently strengthened, with
evidence of a leading supercell and some attempt at clustering just
to its west with a possible/developing MCV circulation. This
activity may pose at least an isolated hail/wind threat through the
morning as it tracks eastward across southern KS. But, it may tend
to remain somewhat elevated to the north of the warm front.
Accordingly, the overall severe threat with this convection is
uncertain. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1307 for more details on
the short-term severe threat across KS.

The net effect of the morning convection may be to reinforce the
boundary across northern OK/southern KS. Most guidance continues to
suggest that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability
will exist this afternoon from southeast CO (to the east of the weak
surface low) east-southeastward into southern KS/northern OK.
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across this area
later today as a weak mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward
over the central High Plains. With strong deep-layer shear expected,
initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail and severe
gusts. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy
quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level
shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary
across southern KS/northern OK through the afternoon and evening as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Elongated/curved hodographs
suggest a threat for a few tornadoes will exist, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the
enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears
possible if a supercell mode can be maintained.

Higher-based convection should develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread eastward across northwest
TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and eventually into western OK this
evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before
eventually weakening.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...

50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening
as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak
surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes
today, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to
low 60s ahead of the front this morning. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of OH into western/central PA and western NY where slightly
stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. Confidence
in stronger instability and a greater severe risk remains too low
for higher hail/wind probabilities with this update.

...Utah into Wyoming and Montana...

Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from UT into WY this
afternoon and evening. Some chance for occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast ID, WY, and parts of MT, where
cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear,
and pockets of greater instability should support more robust
convection.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/25/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 161207
SWODY1
SPC AC 161205

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds
will be possible across parts of the northern Rockies this afternoon
and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur
over portions of northern New England, the Upper Midwest, and
Mid-Atlantic. A brief tornado or two remains possible across a small
part of south-central Texas this morning.

...Northern Rockies...
A closed upper low will move slowly northward along the coast of
WA/OR through the period. Upper ridging will persist across much of
the Rockies to the Plains. Between these features, a belt of
modestly enhanced south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will
overspread the northern Rockies. Modest easterly low-level winds
will transport generally 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints across
this region beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. As daytime heating
occurs, moderate instability should develop. Scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to initially form over the higher terrain during the
afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper
levels and gradually strengthening flow aloft will support around
30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Organized cells will pose a risk
for gusty winds and severe hail across much of the region. The
greatest risk for 1+ inch hail still appears to be across parts of
western MT.

...Northern New England...
A vigorous mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly
southeastward from southern Ontario/Quebec across New England
through the day. Strong west/northwest deep-layer flow is evident in
recent NAM/RAP forecast soundings. Boundary layer moisture will be
somewhat limited compared to prior days, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Still, somewhat greater daytime heating is
expected to the north of the more prominent smoke plume across
southern New England, which should help steepening low-level lapse
rates by late morning/early afternoon. While MLCAPE will remain
modest (around 250-500 J/kg), the strong low/mid-level westerly flow
and steepened low-level lapse rates should support scattered
damaging winds as low-topped convection spreads southeast from
Quebec and across portions of northern New England through the
afternoon. Confidence in this scenario occurring has increased
enough to add greater severe wind probabilities and a corresponding
Slight Risk to parts of northeast VT/northern NH and ME.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Enhanced west-northwesterly mid/upper-level winds will overspread
the Mid-Atlantic today on the southern periphery of the mid-level
shortwave trough moving across New England. A surface front is
expected to sag southward through the day, approaching the PA/MD
border vicinity by late afternoon. Rich low-level moisture will be
in place ahead of the surface front and beneath steepening mid-level
lapse rates spreading in from the OH Valley. This, along with
diurnal heating, will foster a corridor of moderate to locally
strong instability this afternoon. Furthermore, various NAM/RAP
forecast soundings show 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and steep
low-level lapse rates present south of the front. This environment
would generally support organized cells/line segments. However,
overall thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain given that stronger
forcing for ascent should remain mostly north of the warm sector.
Additionally, it is uncertain if smoke will continue to have a
negative impact on an otherwise favorable environment for severe
thunderstorms. Given the conditional potential for at least locally
damaging winds, have maintained the Marginal Risk with minor
expansions.

...Northeast North Dakota/Northern Minnesota...
A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate
across the Canadian Prairies north of the prominent upper ridge over
the Plains/Rockies, and through northwesterly flow aloft into parts
of ND and northern MN this afternoon into tonight. At the surface, a
weak low and surface front will move across ND into northern MN
during the evening and overnight hours. South/southeasterly
low-level flow will maintain a moisture-rich boundary layer,
supporting a narrow corridor of instability. NAM/RAP forecast
soundings show supercell wind profiles, but also increasing capping
through the late afternoon/evening. Even so, most high-resolution
guidance develops convection across southern Manitoba into northern
ND during the evening, spreading east/southeast across northern MN
overnight. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds may occur with
this activity.

...South-Central Texas...
Low-level rotation has occasionally been noted with cells occurring
early this morning across parts of south-central TX in a very moist
and weakly unstable environment, aided by a 30-35 kt southerly
low-level jet. A brief tornado or two still appears possible with
this activity through the morning, as low-level shear will remain
sufficient for continued updraft rotation. With time, a gradual
weakening of the low-level jet and related shear should result in a
lessening risk for tornadoes. See Mesoscale Discussion 1631 for more
details on the near-term threat across this area.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of the Mogollon
Rim and southeast AZ this afternoon/evening, and subsequently spread
westward across portions of central/southern AZ. Mid-level winds are
expected to be weaker compared to previous days, but modest
instability and steep lapse rates amid strong heating could support
sporadic strong gusts.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 191248
SWODY1
SPC AC 191246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH GEORGIA
INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over
portions of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible late this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Upper Midwest.

... Southeast ...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northeast U.S. moving east towards the
western Atlantic. A seasonably strong cold front over the OH Valley
eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states, will push south
before weakening over VA. A very moist airmass evident in 12 UTC
area raobs (14-15 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios) will
heat/destabilize across VA into the southern Appalachians.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by midday into the early
afternoon both over the higher terrain and near the front. Slightly
stronger westerly flow over VA into the northern half of NC will
favor eastward-moving clusters this afternoon. High PW and
steepened low-level lapse rates will likely favor water-loading
within the stronger downdrafts. Scattered 50-60 mph gusts capable
of wind damage will be the primary hazard. Farther southwest over
GA into AL, a couple of bands of storms may yield wind-damage
potential with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe gusts are
also possible across parts of the central FL Peninsula northward
into southern GA.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the central
Rockies as an upper speed max intensifies and overspreads MT
eastward into MN. An associated mid-level trough initially over
Alberta will pivot east-southeast into Manitoba and adjacent
portions of ND-MN. Southerly low-level flow will advect richer
moisture northward into the Dakotas/MN region during the day.
Models show a relatively narrow tongue of 60s to near 70 F dewpoints
to the east of lee trough. In between a southeastward-moving cool
front and the lee trough, deep boundary layer mixing is expected.
Models generally show 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE over the Dakotas by mid
afternoon beneath 70 to 90-kt westerly 200-mb flow. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Dakotas
by mid to late afternoon as convective inhibition erodes.
Elongated, straight hodographs and effective shear around 40 kt will
support an initial supercell mode. Very large hail (1 to 3.5 inches
in diameter) is possible with a few of these supercells. As
additional storms develop towards the early evening, convective
outflow and additional storm mergers may lead to upscale growth of a severe-wind producing linear cluster (most probable over the eastern
ND into adjacent SD-MN). Peak gusts with this activity are forecast
in the 60-85 mph range. These storms will move east into parts of
the eastern Dakotas and western MN before eventually weakening overnight.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 221252
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered storms are possible across the Carolinas and
southern Mid-Atlantic, as well as New England this afternoon and
early evening, with damaging winds as the primary concern. Isolated
strong to severe wind gusts are also possible in the central High
Plains and central Oregon.

...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
The region will influenced by the base of the eastern CONUS trough
and moderately strong belt of cyclonically curved westerlies,
although subtle mid-level warming is expected across the Carolinas
and southern Virginia. Storm redevelopment and re-intensification
today will tend to favor a persistent west-east zone of pre-frontal
convergence and existing convection across southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina, with additional development possible this
afternoon farther north closer to the southeastward-moving cold
front. Cloud breaks and a moisture-rich environment will support
moderate destabilization this afternoon. Around 30-40 kt of
effective shear will support some organized clusters and
conditionally support some supercells, especially with somewhat
stronger wind profiles with northward extent across southern/eastern
Virginia toward the Delmarva. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard regionally, but some tornado risk may exist as well.

...New England...
A shortwave trough/moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be
favorably timed with diurnal destabilization during the afternoon,
particularly for New Hampshire into Maine. As the cold front
progresses eastward, scattered storms are expected to develop.
Effective shear of 30-40 kt and strong upper-level winds will
support the possibility of some supercells aside from organized
multicells. Damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a
tornado are all possible this afternoon until around sunset.

...Central High Plains...
Southeasterly surface winds will combine with increasingly westerly/northwesterly flow aloft to promote modest deep-layer shear
(around 30 kt 0-6 km) during the afternoon/evening. The development
of a weak lee low and low-level moisture moving northwest around the
Midwest anticyclone will aid in storm development within the region. Temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface will allow for efficient
outflow production. A strengthening southeasterly low-level jet
across western Kansas may also help maintain convection farther east
during the evening. Severe wind gusts are possible with this activity.

...Oregon...
Weak height falls will influence the region via an upper low off the
coastal Pacific Northwest. Modest large-scale ascent and diurnal heating/orographic influences will contribute to thunderstorm
development across central Oregon during the afternoon. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads will promote a risk for strong to
severe wind gusts despite relatively limited overall buoyancy and
vertical shear.

...Gulf Coast...
Tropical Storm Bertha will continue to slowly drift westward across
the northern Gulf of America, grazing the southern Louisiana coast
through tonight. Several factors suggest that inland/near-shore
supercell potential will remain limited including an expected
gradual weakening of Bertha and poor thermal profiles inland where
southerly low-level winds will develop toward the coast on its
eastern periphery.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 07/22/2026

$$
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