ACUS03 KWNS 040728
SWODY3
SPC AC 040727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds
initially over the Great Lakes will overspread the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Saturday night. Meanwhile, an intense
upstream trough is forecast to move through the Canadian Rockies and
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with downstream height
falls and strengthening mid/upper-level winds advancing into the
northern High Plains. Elsewhere, a mid-level low initially centered
along the NM-TX state line is expected to evolve into an open wave
while lifting northeast across the central and southern Plains.

At the surface, a cold front will push through the Great Lakes, New
England, and OH Valley during the forecast period, while a lee
cyclone deepens along a cold front moving through the northern High Plains.

...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...

A westerly low-level jet will advect an increasingly moist air mass
through the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast ahead of
the cold front on Saturday. The moisture increase will combine with
daytime heating to support a moderately unstable environment across
the OH Valley, with instability diminishing with northeastward
extent into New England. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon ahead of the short-wave
trough, and amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. The most favorable overlap of stronger
instability, vertical shear, and forcing for ascent is expected to
materialize across the upper OH Valley Saturday afternoon, where
supercells will be possible with a higher-probability risk for large
hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, isolated occurrences of large
hail and/or damaging wind will be possible during the afternoon and
evening hours.

...Northern High Plains...

The presence of steep lapse rates and increasing boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to contribute to a moderate to
strongly unstable air mass by afternoon ahead of the surface low and
cold front over eastern MT and western ND. Moisture wrapping around
the surface low is expected to reach into the high terrain of
central MT, supporting at least modest destabilization there.
Initial, isolated storms are expected in the post-frontal, upslope
environment in central MT Saturday afternoon, with storms
potentially not developing until Saturday evening in the vicinity of
the front in eastern MT and western ND, due to late-arriving forcing
for ascent. Vertical shear will strengthen through the day with the
kinematic environment favoring supercell storm modes with the
primary hazard being large hail.

...Southern Plains....

The models indicate a band of 30-35 kt mid-level winds developing
within the southeast quadrant of the upper low from southwest TX
into the Red River Valley Saturday afternoon. As a result, vertical
shear will be enhanced in those areas; however, the primary
uncertainty regarding some severe-storm threat is the effect of
early-day storms on afternoon air mass destabilization.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 050736
SWODY3
SPC AC 050735

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More
isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

A vorticity maximum and associated jet streak within the base of
broader-scale troughing from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into
northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning are forecast to
translate into the northern High Plains by Sunday night. Meanwhile,
a short-wave trough will progress from the lower Great Lakes through
southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a 40-50 kt
wind maximum in the mid levels. At the surface, an area of low
pressure and associated front are expected to remain
quasi-stationary over the western Dakotas Sunday, prior to advancing
slowly east Sunday night. Elsewhere, a cold front will move through
the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

...Northern Plains...

A hot, pre-frontal air mass is expected to develop Sunday afternoon
with steep lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to
low 60s contributing to moderate instability. Wrap-around moisture
on the backside of the surface front will support air mass
destabilization across portions of eastern MT into northeast WY as
well. The models suggest potentially separate severe thunderstorm
regimes evolving across the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
Isolated storms appear possible along favored terrain of central MT
into northeast WY, aided by increasing height falls downstream from
the approaching vorticity maximum and jet streak. Additional storms
appear possible along the surface front across the western Dakotas
as the strong boundary-layer heating erodes the capping.

Strengthening vertical shear will support supercells capable of
mainly large hail in post-frontal regime, and large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts within the pre-frontal warm sector.
Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen during the evening;
however, relatively high LCLs are expected to limit a robust tornado
threat. The severe-weather threat may continue into Sunday night,
especially across western and central ND.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected
to support moderate afternoon instability ahead of the cold front.
Latest model guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the boundary, aided by forcing for
ascent associated with the short-wave trough. Forecast soundings
indicate largely unidirectional wind profiles with 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, which would favor some cold pool organization with
an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts into early evening.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 110726
SWODY3
SPC AC 110724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards
appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of
the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated
severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark
Plateau, and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from the upper MS Valley into northern
Rockies is forecast to amplify while pivoting east/southeast through
the upper Midwest and mid/lower MO Valleys. That system will be
attended by a belt of 50-60+ kt winds in the mid-levels, which are
expected to extend from the mid MO Valley into the Great Lakes
Saturday afternoon into night. At the surface, a cold front
initially from the upper Midwest to low pressure over KS Saturday
morning, will progress through the upper Great Lakes, mid/lower MO
Valleys, and central Plains during the forecast period.

...Upper Great Lakes into Central and Southern Plains...

The potential for early-day storms across portions of the mid MO
Valley into the Ozark Plateau increases uncertainty in the location
of afternoon/evening storms, as well as the distribution of
instability across the region. Latest ensemble guidance indicates
the highest likelihood for moderate to strong instability across
portions of the central and southern Plains with greater spread in
instability farther north across the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes.

Current thinking is that diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear
most likely to the northeast of the KS surface low northeast along
the adjacent segment of the front with lesser confidence in storm
coverage with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes.
Deep-layer shear is expected to be sufficiently strong for organized
storm modes, including supercells from the central Plains into the
upper Great Lakes with decreasing amounts of vertical shear into the
southern Plains. Highest confidence in a more concentrated
severe-weather episode remains centered across the central Plains
into the lower MO Valley, where all hazards appear possible. Storms
may eventually grow upscale into one or multiple complexes Saturday
evening into night from the mid MS Valley through Ozark Plateau into
the southern Plains.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 120654
SWODY3
SPC AC 120653

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Great Lakes to the
Northeast on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the
northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from
Ohio to the Mid-South, then westward into north/central TX by
mid/late afternoon. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the front. Pockets of moderate to strong instability will
develop across parts of the southern Plains vicinity as the cold
front develops southward through the period. Additional areas of
moderate to strong destabilization are possible across the
Mid-Atlantic vicinity.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and
MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from
eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and
pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for
damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with
northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However,
degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and
possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day
2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the
period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends
and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe
probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.

...Southeast NM into the ArkLaTex...

Convection will develop near the southward-advancing surface front
during the afternoon within a very moist and moderately unstable
airmass. Convection may tend to be anafrontal, and storms could
quickly become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, isolated strong
gusts and hail will be possible with stronger storms.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 160727
SWODY3
SPC AC 160726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND
NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
hazard with this activity.

...Synopsis...

A series of embedded midlevel shortwave troughs will migrate through
broad upper troughing and strong southwesterly deep-layer flow from
the Great Lakes to the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over
southern Ontario will develop northeast along the St. Lawrence
Valley and a trailing cold front will extend southwest from the
Lower Great Lakes to northern OK and the TX Panhandle during the
morning. This front will sag south/southeast through the period,
becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to central TX by
Friday morning. A very moist airmass will reside south of the front, particularly from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate
to strong destabilization will develop across parts of the Plains
into the Ohio Valley, with more modest instability with northeast
extent into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

...Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

Very strong west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is expected to reside
across the Northeast on Thursday, decreasing with southwest extent
into the Ohio Valley. Convection may be ongoing near the surface
front and within the broad warm advection regime ahead of the
boundary Thursday morning, especially across the Northeast. This
will likely temper destabilization across portions of PA/NY and
points northeastward. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will
still support strong to severe wind gusts with convection through
early evening. Richer boundary layer moisture will be in place from
TN/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, fostering strong destabilization.
Clusters and line segments will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts.

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

A belt of strong instability is forecast ahead of the southward
sagging cold front Thursday afternoon. This area will be further
removed from stronger mid/upper southwesterly flow. But, ample
instability, modest effective shear, and high PWs supporting water
laden downdrafts will result in a marginal severe risk for damaging
winds within thunderstorm clusters/bands.

...Southeast...

The remnants of a tropical disturbance is expected to migrate across
portions of the Gulf Coast states on Thursday. A very moist and
moderately unstable airmass will be in place. The remnant low may
serve to locally enhance vertical shear, resulting in an
accompanying risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

..Leitman.. 06/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 180620
SWODY3
SPC AC 180619

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

...Central Plains...

An upper ridge will initially be centered over the High Plains on
Saturday. An upper shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin
will develop eastward, emerging over the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains by 00z, and breaking down upper ridging. As
this occurs, mid/upper level flow will increase and a lee low will
deepen in the vicinity of eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will
extend southward near the CO/KS border and along the NM/TX border.
Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) northward across
KS, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints possible across much of NE.
Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moistening boundary layer will
result in a moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) across
the central High Plains and portions of central/eastern NE/KS.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within
upslope flow along the surface trough from far southeast WY into
eastern CO. As storms develop east/southeast with time, an
increasing southerly low-level jet may foster upscale development
into one or more bowing segments. Overall, supercell wind profiles
suggest large hail and perhaps tornadoes will be possible. If storms
grow upscale, damaging wind potential will increase during the evening.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)