ACUS02 KWNS 040523
SWODY2
SPC AC 040521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS... MUCH OF IA...INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across
portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A series of weak, mid-level disturbances will translate from the
northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, ahead of a building
ridge from central Canada into the northern Plains. At the surface,
the primary focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development is a
front, which is expected to stretch from the western UP of MI
southwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid-afternoon Friday. A surface low is forecast to develop along the
front over south-central NE or north-central KS, with a dryline
extending south-southwest from that feature into northwest OK.

...Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes...

Latest guidance is suggestive that the combination of steep
mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s will support strong instability along and south of the
NE/IA segment of the front with HREF mean SBCAPE as high as
3000-4000+ J/kg. Forecast instability decreases with northeastward
extent into the upper Midwest, due in part to the potential for
early-day storms and lingering cloud cover.

While mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the day across
the central Plains, strong heating west of the dryline and south of
the surface front should sufficiently erode the cap for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into
early evening in the vicinity of the triple point over south-central
NE. Locally backed near-surface winds in that area will offset
somewhat marginal mid-level flow to yield 30-35 kt of deep-layer
shear, which will support supercell storm modes, given the degree of instability. Large to very large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes
will be possible in the early life cycle of the storms, with a
subsequent transition to more of a damaging wind threat (with
significant gusts possible) by mid/late evening.

Additional severe storms are expected farther east along the front
into IA during the afternoon and evening hours with strong
instability and modest vertical shear supporting a threat for large
to very large hail and severe wind gusts.

Should subsequent model guidance show higher confidence in more
concentrated storm development along the NE/IA segment of the front,
an upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be considered.

Farther northeast along the front across the upper Midwest, the
diffuse nature of the boundary casts some uncertainty on exactly
where the favored area for diurnally enhanced storm development will
be. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass and
modest deep-layer shear will be supportive of a few severe storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated
severe-weather threat may continue to spread east into the upper
Great Lakes Friday evening into night, driven largely by warm
advection along a westerly low-level jet.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 050538
SWODY2
SPC AC 050536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes
Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through
southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet
streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to
overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England,
enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas.
Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over
the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis
pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern
Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the
southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level
flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark
Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the
Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through
the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into
northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low
is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture
flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those
thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from
late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms
are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within
the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from
west-to-east over the course of the day.

The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg
developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New
England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer
shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes,
including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of
wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the
upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with
the threat for a brief tornado or two.

...Northern High Plains...

Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development
until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low
and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a
moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical
shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an
attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The
severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours,
centered along the low-level jet axis.

...Red River Valley into southwest Texas...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is
forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper
low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary
layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas
unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast
soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit
increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing
boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell
storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally
strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.

...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...

Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop
along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow
boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level
warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level
trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While
vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of
instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of
marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 070600
SWODY2
SPC AC 070558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very
large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday
afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and
the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic
damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum
initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will
lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies.
Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley
will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley.

At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central
Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken
through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern
Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or
northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX.

...Great Plains...

With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the
northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during
the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model
guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely
scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored
terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge.
There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon,
beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with
effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon
into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells
capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or
two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday
evening before the storms weaken.

Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more
model spread in the timing and location of storms through the
forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The
residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into
western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles
will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a
moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated
occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the
northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized
storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above,
no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with
this forecast.

Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could
materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through
northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop.

...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...

A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of
thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the
Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest
low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast
through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and
related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and
moderately unstable air mass.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 110535
SWODY2
SPC AC 110534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the
Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear
possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending 50 kt mid-level jet streak
initially from the Upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley are forecast
to weaken while progressing through the OH Valley to along the St.
Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a cold front initially from
southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers at
12z Friday will advance east/southeast into New England and
Mid-Atlantic, where it will merge with a lee trough closer to the coast.

...Western New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Central Appalachians...

While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep, the
presence of a hot, moist boundary layer will largely contribute to
moderate to strong instability Friday afternoon ahead of the cold
front and in the vicinity of the lee trough. Thunderstorm
development is expected by early to mid afternoon across portions of
NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the
mid-level wave. Additional storm development is likely through the
afternoon along the front and/or favored terrain in the central and
southern Appalachians.

The strongest vertical shear is expected to lag the surface warm
sector to the west, leading to a mix of multicells and line segments
with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Isolated
occurrences of marginally severe hail may also accompany the
strongest storms.

Individual thunderstorms are expected to gradually congeal into
outflow-driven clusters by late afternoon into early evening,
leading to a potentially more concentrated damaging-wind threat
across the Mid-Atlantic.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and
moderately unstable upslope regime Friday afternoon. Vertical shear
is forecast to be somewhat marginal for storm organization; however,
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of
some large-hail potential with the strongest updrafts.

...Northern High Plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
within a marginally unstable environment, with some potential for
gusty winds and/or small hail. Vertical shear is expected to be
relatively strong, and if subsequent model runs indicate greater
instability, severe-weather probabilities may need to be added.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130517
SWODY2
SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

...Mid-Atlantic Region...

An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday
morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will
pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic.
Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead
impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the
afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to
around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced
flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during
the afternoon and evening.

Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee
of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay
vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture
return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints
should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing
cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across
eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted
with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat
less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within
lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the
afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also
will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in
subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased
to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ.

Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the
afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio
Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area,
deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will
pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.

...Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex...

A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west
to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection
cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast
NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak
large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface
boundary will limit overall severe potential.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 170527
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Northeast.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley Thursday morning will pivot northeast across the Northeast
through evening. Strong deep layer southwesterly flow associated
with this feature will already be in place at the beginning of the
period, with 500 mb flow from 60-80 kt stretching across portions of
the Northeast. Meanwhile, an intense 850 mb low-level jet will lift
northeast across the central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the
Northeast. A surface low over southern Ontario will pivot northeast
into Quebec, while a trailing cold front stretches from the Lower
Great Lakes west/southwest toward the Mid-MS Valley and the OK/TX
Panhandles Thursday morning. The northern extent of this boundary
will spread east across the Northeast while the western extent
across the Ohio Valley into the Plains slowly sags southward.

Across the Gulf Coast states, the remnants of current Potential
Tropical Cyclone One will migrate eastward across the region. This
feature could locally enhance deep layer shear amid a very moist and
modestly airmass.

...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of the
surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place. Instability will likely be muted from PA/NY into
New England due to cloud cover, poor lapse rates and a narrow/modest
warm sector. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will overspread
the Northeast and fast moving storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

Stronger instability is expected in a corridor from KY into the
Mid-Atlantic where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place.
This corridor also may see stronger heating. The strong 850 mb
low-level jet will gradually weaken through the day as it lifts
northeast, but strong deep-layer flow will persist atop this
moist/unstable airmass. Scattered storms are expected during the
afternoon into evening, posing mainly a risk of damaging gusts.

...Gulf Coast/Southeast...

The remnants of current Potential Tropical Cyclone One will migrate east/northeast across the region on Thursday. A very moist airmass
will be in place, and where stronger heating can occur, moderate destabilization is expected. Furthermore, the remnant low will
locally enhance vertical shear. Isolated strong storms capable of
producing gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-South...

Severe thunderstorm potential is a bit more uncertain from
OK/northwest TX into the Ozarks vicinity. A very moist and unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the southward sagging cold front.
However, large-scale ascent will be weak and capping could limit
storm coverage. If storms can develop ahead of the front, some risk
for strong wind and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains
on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the
northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast
across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In
the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from
the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary
extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold
front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing
extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.

...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains...

As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope
flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone.
This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow,
will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail
will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale
growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across
western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early
overnight hours.

...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a
modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail
threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the
afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for
storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting
factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some
pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas,
a threat for isolated large hail may exist.

...Southeast...

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday
afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast
to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary
limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets
closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become
more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 230610
SWODY2
SPC AC 230609

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across
portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across
northern Utah.

...Synopsis...
Moderate northwesterly mid-level flow will be present from the
northern Rockies to the Midwest between a ridge across the Southwest
and a trough moving across southern Canada into the Upper Midwest. A
weak mid-level shortwave trough will likely be in the Arkansas
region at the beginning of the period and weaken with a secondary
mid-level shortwave trough moving across the central Rockies and
deamplifying the ridge. At the surface, a weak surface low will move
from northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. A secondary lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado in response to the approaching
mid-level shortwave trough and strengthening mid-level flow.

...Central/southern High Plains...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop within upslope
flow across eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming on Wednesday
afternoon. As 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow advects over the
region, a favorable supercell environment will be in place.
Supercells are likely to develop by mid afternoon with an initial
threat of large to very large hail and severe winds. The more
organized supercell threat is forecast from east-central Colorado
northward where the 15% hail probabilities are confined. 15% wind
probabilities continue farther south as forecast soundings suggest
severe winds (perhaps 75+ mph) are likely, even if storms are less organized.

...KS/OK into the Ozarks...

Day 1 convection will have a considerable impact on the coverage and
severity of severe storms on Wednesday. Some guidance shows morning
storms along a frontal zone in Oklahoma and persisting into the
afternoon which will stabilize most of the region into the afternoon
and evening. However, if these storms do not form, a very favorable
airmass will remain in place and a MCS could develop across the High
Plains and move into this region Tuesday night. This could bring
some severe weather threat and it would have implications for where destabilization would be on Day 2/Wednesday. Therefore, a broad 5%
driven by severe winds seems appropriate at this time and additional
refinement can be made once the impact of prior day convection
becomes more clear.

...Western Great Lakes...

Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can
occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest
boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon
instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal
boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting
some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.

...Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi...

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the coverage of storms
across Arkansas at 12Z Wednesday, but given forcing from a mid-level
trough and moderate to strong instability across the region, either re-intensification of morning convection or additional afternoon
convection is possible within this zone. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat.

...Northern Utah...

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah
during the day on Monday with weak to moderate instability. Forecast
soundings show a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer which may result in
severe winds. Some consideration was given to a CIG1 area given the
potential for organized storms in the steep lapse rate environment,
but did not have the confidence for 75+ mph wind gusts to add it at
this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 240600
SWODY2
SPC AC 240558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms
are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes
during the day on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across
Ontario with a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. Farther
west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within
the broader zonal flow across the Plains. The most prominant feature
will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from
eastern Colorado Thursday morning to the Ozarks by the evening. A
lee surface cyclone is forecast in the Texas Panhandle vicinity.

...High Plains...

Widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern Colorado
into eastern Wyoming on Thursday morning. This will limit
surface-based instability across the region for much of the day.
Eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening
as the cloud cover clears. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves
through Wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with
some severe wind potential. The lack of strong heating has lessened
hail and significant wind potential across this region. Therefore,
the CIG1 area has been removed.

Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which,
combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell
threat with weak upslope flow across southeast Kansas, and
continuing east along the frontal boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles.

...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...

A morning MCS is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone
across Kansas during the morning on Thursday. In the wake of this
morning MCS, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate
mid-level flow aloft. Therefore, supercells are expected to develop
on the remnant outflow/frontal zone Thursday afternoon and evening
from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma potentially into the
Ozarks. Given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary,
the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally
greater tornado threat. In addition, most guidance shows a
strengthening low-level jet across Oklahoma and into southern
Kansas. This may support a strong tornado threat, particularly
during the evening.

...Eastern Ohio to southern New York...

Weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania Thursday morning with dewpoints in the
mid 60s. Moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact
mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the
front by mid-afternoon. Strong shear should assist in storm
organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft
strength. Due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear,
5% wind probabilities are warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 210517
SWODY2
SPC AC 210515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional
thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of
which could produce locally strong wind gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through large-scale
upper troughing across the Northeast on Wednesday. Relatively strong
deep-layer winds for mid/late July are forecast, characterized by
500 mb southerly flow around 45-60 kt, 35-55 kt at 700 mb, and 25-35
kt at 850 mb. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast
across Quebec, with a surface trough extending southward into the
Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is forecast to be located from eastern NY
to the central Appalachians and the TN Valley Wednesday morning. The
northern extent of the front will be rather progressive as it moves
across New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon and evening. The southern extent of the front will more
slowly sag south/southeast across VA/NC. Ahead of the front,
southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass
beneath the moderately strong deep-layer wind fields.

While the boundary layer will be moist, strong heating will be
limited due to cloud cover and poor lapse rates. This will limit
instability, especially with northward extent into New England.
Nevertheless, sufficient instability coupled with the stronger
deep-layer flow will support organized clusters capable of wind
damage. The greatest risk will be focused across the southern
Mid-Atlantic where instability will be greatest (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE).

..Leitman.. 07/21/2026

$$
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)