MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

ACUS11 KWNS 221400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221400
ALZ000-TNZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-221600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas affected...Parts of MS/AL into southern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221400Z - 221600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the brief-tornado and localized
damaging-wind threat is possible with time into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A midlevel vorticity maximum and attendant weak surface
low are moving across eastern AR this morning. An arc of convection
associated with this system extends across western TN into
northern/eastern MS and western AL. The 12Z JAN/BMX soundings depict
rich moisture and poor midlevel lapse rates, with around 25-35 kt of
deep-layer shear and modestly enlarged low-level hodographs noted on
regional VWPs.

Filtered heating and modest destabilization in advance of this
convective band may allow for some intensification through the
morning into the early afternoon, though weak midlevel lapse rates
may continue to hamper updraft strength. A belt of moderate
low-level flow associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will
maintain favorable low-level SRH, and transient supercell structures
will continue to be possible through the morning, with a
brief-tornado threat. A localized wind-damage threat may also
increase with time, especially in areas where stronger heating and
steepening of midlevel lapse rates occur. While uncertainty remains
regarding coverage and magnitude of the threat, watch issuance is
possible given the possibility of some increasing tornado potential
with time.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/22/2026

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31678926 32648919 33538883 34258918 34628969 34938959
35348926 35628864 35778758 35598669 34658673 33708686
33248690 32478709 30668744 30398904 31158921 31678926

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)