ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into
tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very
large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a large upper low off the
central CA coast, with an extensive fetch of southwesterly flow
aloft from the base of this low through northern Mexico and the
Southwest States into the southern High Plains. A deep cyclone
exists over central Canada as well. Between these two primary
features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving
southeastward across NE.

Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the Canadian
cyclone, contributing to some deepening and eastward progression. An
associated surface low, currently over northwestern Ontario, will
move eastward as well. The deepening of the upper trough across the
northern Plains and progression of the surface low will force a cold
front southward/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Middle MO
Valley by this evening, and through the central Plains, and Lower MO
and Mid MS Valleys by early tomorrow. Increasing low-level moisture
is anticipated ahead of this cold front, supporting the potential
for thunderstorms as this front interacts with this moisture and
associated buoyancy.

...Eastern KS into Mid MS Valley and Lower MI...

Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon, both
along the front, which should extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA, and within the warm-air advection regime ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large hail is the primary risk.

Any thunderstorms that develop within the warm-air advection regime
ahead of the front during the afternoon and early evening should
interact with greater buoyancy (particularly from northeast IL,
northern IL and southern Lower MI where less boundary-layer mixing
could result in slightly higher dewpoints) and moderate vertical
shear. A few stronger, more organized storms are possible in this
area, although weaker upper flow could limit discreteness and result
in a trend towards a more clustered storm mode.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...

A sharp dryline is expected to develop from central KS
south-southwestward into northwest TX. Given the veering surface
winds, convergence along the dryline will likely be modest
throughout much of the afternoon. However, some backing is possible
during the evening as a surface low moves eastward across southwest
KS towards northwest OK. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode
most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse
rates contribute to moderate buoyancy. These factors could be enough
to force isolated initiation on the dryline from central KS into
northwest TX. Upper-level flow will be strengthening across the
region throughout the period, and any storms that do form will have
ample deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large to very large
hail would be the primary risk early in the convective cycle, with
dry mid-levels also supporting strong downdrafts as storms begin to
weaken and collapse.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 051253
SWODY1
SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...

Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this
cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and
FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over
western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low
through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends
southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These
boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could
act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the
region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection
this afternoon.

A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in
the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm
sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest
and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may
prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists.
These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast,
particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these
factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm
mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent
as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as
well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher
storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a
corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher probabilities.

That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive
of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow
resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature
should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large
hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle.
Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into
western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong
tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may
eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds
would become the primary severe risk.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...

Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI,
along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward
through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward
along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also
progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent
cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level
moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and
Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely
reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with
afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy,
despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and
ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the
destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as
shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient
updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity
modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well.
Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although
a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 071251
SWODY1
SPC AC 071249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas.

...Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL...

Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from
far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are
occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a
surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf.
The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and
strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These
conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts
embedded within the predominately linear structures.

This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours
before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the
western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually
shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will
exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress
southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.

...Carolinas...

Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest,
with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally
less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to
shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind
fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and
associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in
occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold
front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind
fields across the region will support the potential for damaging
gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...

A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where
steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a
stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This
elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining
with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear
from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures
capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms
farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment
remains supportive of large hail.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 081230
SWODY1
SPC AC 081228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains...

Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western KS
tracking southeastward. Full sunshine will lead to strong heating/destabilization ahead of the associated cold front over
eastern KS and much of OK. Dewpoints in the 50s, coupled with steep
low/mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and the development of scattered thunderstorms along
the front. These storms will track southeastward through the
evening across much of OK and into north TX. Forecast soundings
indicate favorable vertical shear profiles for supercell structures
capable of large hail.

Eventual upscale organization into linear/bowing structures will aid
in a risk of damaging winds as storms persist into the overnight
period across the ArkLaTex. While the overall severe threat should
diminish by this time, storms may occasionally result in damaging
wind gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. Gusty winds are the primary concern.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 131215
SWODY1
SPC AC 131214

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this
afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail
risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

...WV/PA/NY...

A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across
the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The
associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend
from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds
are currently prevalent across this region, but some
clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported
into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient
CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV.
Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is
concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
perhaps hail...mainly in the 18-00z period.

...Great Basin...

A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over
OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent
across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight.
Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets
of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and
central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE
for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions
suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional
thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind gusts.

...TX Panhandle...

A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle
later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s.
Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of
convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL
risk for this conditional risk.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 141202
SWODY1
SPC AC 141200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri into west Texas.

...KS...

An upper ridge is centered over the central/southern Plains this
morning, but will break down through the forecast period as a series
of weak shortwave troughs emanate from the Rockies across the
central Plains. Meanwhile, strong southerly low-level winds will
develop across TX/OK/KS, aiding in northward return of moisture and considerable destabilization. The western periphery of the
returning moisture will be noted by a diffuse dryline from western
KS into western OK, where temperatures will climb into the mid/upper
90s today.

By late afternoon, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of
central KS. However, weak large scale forcing and a formidable cap
to the east of the dryline significantly limits the confidence in
thunderstorm development/maintenance. Any storm that forms will
pose a severe risk, but coverage may be very isolated. Have shrunk
the risk areas, but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.

...West TX/OK...

The aforementioned dryline will extend southward across western OK
into west TX. Hot and dry conditions will develop to the west of
the dryline, where model consensus suggesting scattered high-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show near dry-adiabatic low and mid level lapse rates, and
sufficient CAPE for a risk of dry microbursts or occasional
multicell clusters capable of damaging winds. This activity is
likely to struggle as it spreads east of the dryline this evening
due to a strong capping inversion.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 191300
SWODY1
SPC AC 191258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...OHIO
VALLEY...AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South, Ohio
Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary threats. A greater threat for large to very large hail
should exist across parts of west-central Texas.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
central/eastern OK into northwest AR and southern MO. Most of this
activity is occurring along and north of a southward-moving cold
front, and should therefore pose a limited severe risk in the short
term. Eventual regeneration along the cold front and/or
strengthening of ongoing activity should occur later today across TX
into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Mid-level flow is forecast to
remain fairly modest, and deep-layer shear for most areas will tend
to be marginal. Still, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to strong instability along/ahead of
the front by early afternoon. Scattered severe/damaging winds should
be the main threat with loosely organized clusters and bowing line
segments. This wind threat may continue to the TX/LA Coast this evening/overnight. Some potential for supercells should also exist
across parts of west-central TX and vicinity, where steeper
mid-level lapse rates and greater instability is forecast to be in
place. Large hail appears possible with any supercells that can be
sustained, and isolated 2+ inch diameter hail may occur. With time
this evening, this convection may also grow upscale into a bowing
cluster and pose a greater severe wind risk.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast...

Modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will be present today
over the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes regions, as a positively
tilted mid/upper-level trough moves from the Upper Midwest into
eastern Canada. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop
along/ahead of a surface cold front this afternoon as the
pre-frontal airmass gradually destabilizes. Stronger instability
should be present this afternoon across the OH Valley, but greater
deep-layer shear may tend to remain mostly displaced farther north.
Even so, some thunderstorm organization should occur, with
multicells and bowing line segments possible. Scattered
severe/damaging winds should be the main threat, although isolated
hail could occur with the strongest cores. This convection should
spread into the lower Great Lakes by mid to late evening, before
eventually weakening across the Northeast late tonight. A separate
area of convection may develop this afternoon across parts of New
England, and also pose a threat for mainly occasional damaging winds.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 201232
SWODY1
SPC AC 201230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible
with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may
also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...

On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and
the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave
trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic
tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of
a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate
instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this
morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this
destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front,
but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow
along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer
shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with
mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures
may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep
through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent
visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the
Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum
transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging
winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward
through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the
stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been
introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased
confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead
of the front.

...Eastern New Mexico into West/South-Central Texas...

A squall line has generally moved offshore the lower/middle TX Coast
this morning. In its wake, a post-frontal low-level upslope flow
regime will persist today across west TX into eastern NM. Embedded
within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Basin/Southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over northern Mexico this morning
will move northeastward across the southern High Plains by this
afternoon. A relatively early start to convective development
appears probable across the higher terrain of far west TX, possibly
as early as 17-19Z. With a combination of moderate instability and
40-50 kt of deep-layer shear forecast, supercells with mainly a
large hail threat should be the primary mode initially. Additional
robust thunderstorms may form later in the afternoon/early evening
across a broader portion of the southern High Plains, and also pose
a threat for large hail and isolated severe winds. Some potential
for clustering this evening remains apparent into south-central TX,
and supercells from north-central Mexico could also move into this
region this evening/overnight.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 211251
SWODY1
SPC AC 211250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe
gusts should occur across parts of the central/southern High Plains
this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two may also occur.

...Central/Southern High Plains into South Texas...

Within large-scale upper troughing over the northern Rockies/Great
Basin, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet
will translate southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Forcing for ascent preceding
this feature will encourage initial isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of central CO by
mid afternoon. A weak southern-stream perturbation should also
foster scattered convection farther south across the southern High
Plains as well.

The airmass across the central/southern High Plains should gradually destabilize today, as modest moisture in a persistent low-level
upslope flow regime continues streaming northwestward across these
regions beneath steepened mid-level lapse rates. Weak to moderate
instability is forecast to be in place by mid afternoon, with
sufficient deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells.
Initial development should pose a threat for large hail, before
eventual clustering this evening potentially results in a greater
threat for severe winds. The primary change with this update was to
expand the Marginal Risk across parts of west into south TX, where
any convection which develops eastward may pose an isolated
hail/wind threat this afternoon through tonight.

...Southern Virginia into North Carolina...

Daytime heating south of a cold front should help steepen low-level
lapse rates across parts of southern VA into NC by this afternoon.
While both mid-level flow and lapse rates are expected to remain
fairly modest across this area, an isolated threat for damaging
winds may exist with loosely organized clusters that can develop
along the higher terrain and/or sagging cold front this afternoon.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Another expansive MCS has moved offshore from the lower TX Coast
this morning. Generally weak offshore surface flow continues across
the middle/upper TX Coast into southern LA. Eventually, a more
southerly component to the low-level winds may encourage greater
low-level moisture to advance inland later today across parts of the
lower MS Valley. While a couple of stronger thunderstorms with gusty
winds appear possible, modest mid-level flow and poor lapse rates
aloft should tend to limit the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 221250
SWODY1
SPC AC 221249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe gusts are
possible late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the
southern High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...

Modest cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the Interior West
through the base of the trough over the south-central U.S.
Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance migrating east across
the Permian Basin this morning. A seasonably moist airmass
maintained via southeasterly low-level flow will heat and become
moderately to strongly unstable by mid afternoon.

Model forecast soundings show relatively cool 500-mb temperatures
(near -14 deg C) with steep low- to mid-level lapse rates later this
afternoon. Strong heating will locally erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely
develop by late afternoon. Although westerly flow will likely
remain modest (20 kt from 600 to 200 mb), strongly veering flow will
result in 25-30 kt effective shear, supporting supercells initially.
Large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense
updrafts. Increasing storm coverage during the evening will tend to
promote some upscale growth into a linear cluster with severe gusts
becoming more prevalent. The risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) may
focus during the 00-03 UTC period before a gradual waning in
coverage/intensity by late evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...

Water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance moving northeastward across
the ArkLaMiss this morning and moving towards western portions of
TN/KY and the lower OH Valley. Surface analysis indicates a moist
airmass featuring dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s over TN to
the lower 70s over the central Gulf Coast. Despite widespread cloud
cover, some thinning of the cloud shield is expected as temperatures
slowly warm through the early afternoon. Models generally show weak
buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and skinny CAPE profiles and
tempered lapse rates (reference the Nashville and Birmingham 12 UTC
raobs). However, models show some enhancement/strengthening of
925-500 mb flow moving northeastward across MS/AL into TN through
the mid-late afternoon. As a result, some enlargement of hodographs
will likely occur during the diurnal heating cycle and a few weak
supercell structures will probably develop. Yet, the ongoing
thunderstorm band over eastern MS may be ill timed as it moves
northeastward across western/northern AL through midday.
Nonetheless, an isolated risk for a tornado seems possible over much
of this general region. A risk for isolated damaging gusts may also
accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms before this activity
wanes by the early evening.

...Mid Missouri Valley...

An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move northeastward today across the north-central U.S. At the
surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from eastern
Kansas northward into eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the trough,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon along and near
the moist axis. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to weak instability with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range across eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings
near Omaha suggest that 0-6 km shear will reach 35 knots as the
trough approaches this afternoon, which would support the
development of low-topped supercells capable of isolated severe wind
gusts and hail. The severe threat is expected to persist into the
early evening.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/22/2026

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* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)