ACUS01 KWNS 011233
SWODY1
SPC AC 011231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs,
including one within the southern stream over northern Mexico and
another moving into Ohio Valley within the base of a large cyclone
centered over the northern Ontario/Quebec border vicinity. Recent
surface analysis places a weak front from Deep South Texas
northeastward through the western Gulf and central Plaquemines
Parish, continuing through the north-central Gulf and across
northern Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently
ongoing north of the front and downstream of the northern Mexico
shortwave from the Texas Hill County eastward to the Upper Texas Coast.

Thermodynamic conditions across these region are expected to remain
largely unchanged throughout much of the day, with modest elevated
instability persisting amid the moist southwesterly mid-level flow.
Some modest increase in the mid-level flow is anticipated as the
shortwave trough continues eastward through TX and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. An attendant increase in large-scale ascent is
expected as well. Resulting increase in the deep-layer shear could
result in slightly more organized storm structures and greater
overall storm intensity this afternoon despite numerous preceding
showers and thunderstorms, and little change in the overall
thermodynamics. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks
with the strongest storms.

A surface low is expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough
over the western Gulf, before then tracking quickly northeastward as
the shortwave continues eastward. This low will likely be just off
the Deep South Texas Coast by 00Z Saturday, and off of southern
Plaquemines Parish by 06Z. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
across the Lower MS Valley amid a combination of warm-air advection
and large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave. The strongest storms
may be capable of producing small hail. The surface low may also
track far enough north for the warm sector to advect into the
near-coastal regions of southeast Louisiana, far southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western/central Florida
Panhandle. If this occurs, surface-based storms could develop,
enhancing the potential for damaging gusts as well as introducing a low-probability tornado risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/01/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 030538
SWODY1
SPC AC 030536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough with a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow
within the broader eastern US trough will overspread the Missouri
Valley through this evening. A weak cold front will extend across
portions of the central Plains into the Missouri Valley. This
boundary will be the focus for potential isolated thunderstorm
development as the short-wave moves in across the region by the evening.

...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois...

Moisture quality continues to be a question within the Marginal Risk
area as previously stated in prior outlooks. Surface observations
show 50s dew points have made it as far north as the Red River in
southern Oklahoma as of late Saturday evening. There remains some
question just how far north (or deep) this moisture will be by late
afternoon across Missouri/Illinois. Most 00z guidance suggests that
50 F dew points will steadily spread into Missouri through the day
today. However, afternoon sounding profiles suggest this moisture to
be thin and potentially subject to mixing. Through the afternoon,
weak convergence along the front and a mid-level capping inversion
will likely prohibit convective development. As the short-wave
ascent arrives in the evening, 00z HREF guidance suggest that at
least isolated thunderstorms may develop (as seen in ensemble paint
balls >40z dBZ and in calibrated thunder chances around 40-50%).
Temperatures aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb).
Even upper 40s F dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps
1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon/early evening. Given steepening
lapse rate profiles and cold temperatures aloft, potential for a few
instances of severe hail and strong to severe winds will be possible.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...

Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level
temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast.
Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to
develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow
will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only
strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 111215
SWODY1
SPC AC 111213

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the
Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Carolinas...

A large upper trough is present today over the eastern states, with
a weak cold front sagging southward across the Carolinas. Ample
low-level moisture is present to the south of the front from central
SC into southeast NC, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Pockets of
daytime heating will destabilize this region, with the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Low-level
winds are veered and relatively weak, limiting frontal convergence
and shear. A few strong storms may occur with locally gusty winds
and hail. But the overall threat appears marginal.

...Eastern FL...

Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer
vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing gusty/damaging winds and hail.

...Coastal LA/MS/AL...

A convectively-aided shortwave trough over east TX will continue to
track eastward across the central Gulf Coast region today. The
combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s
will yield moderate CAPE values, leading to relatively widespread
afternoon thunderstorms from southeast LA into southern MS/AL.
Low-level winds are weak and lapse rates are rather weak.
Nevertheless, cooler temperatures aloft and degree of instability
will support a risk of occasionally intense cells capable of
damaging winds and hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 121200
SWODY1
SPC AC 121159

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast
Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early evening.

...KS to WI...

A progressive shortwave trough is evident on morning water vapor
imagery over MN. This feature will track across the Great Lakes
region through the forecast period, with the associated surface cold
front sagging into parts of the upper MS Valley. The air mass ahead
of the front from WI into IL/MO/KS is initially quite dry with
dewpoints only in the 30s/40s. However, strong southwesterly
low-level winds will lead to slow moistening/destabilization of the
pre-frontal air mass with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE around 500
J/kg expected by late afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be sparse and high-based. However, a few strong/severe storms may
form - capable of hail and gusty winds into early evening.

...FL...

A moist and moderately unstable air mass remains in place over the
FL Peninsula today. A well-defined shortwave trough over southern
AL will track eastward today, resulting in sufficient large scale
forcing for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are
veered, suggesting the most intense cells will be in vicinity of the
east-coast sea-breeze. A few organized multicell or supercell
storms are possible, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 231251
SWODY1
SPC AC 231250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST...GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the lower
Mississippi Valley and into parts of Texas. Other isolated severe
storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the
central High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...

Weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern aptly
characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into the
evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob; 8.7
deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the CO/OK-TX
Panhandles border region southward into the Edwards Plateau.
Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe
hazards with the stronger storms. Some clustering is expected
during the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.

...South-central and Southeast Texas/Southern Louisiana...

In the coastal areas of the western and central Gulf, very moist air
will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms will
form along sea breeze boundaries during the early to mid afternoon.
A few severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible.
Farther north over the Ark-La-Miss, some heating ahead of a
north-south band of showers/thunderstorms associated with an MCV
over OK, will contribute to a marginally supportive wind-damage
risk. Have expanded low-wind probabilities to account for
observational trends of a semi-organized band of storms continuing
east into the Ark-La-Miss during peak heating.

...Georgia/South Carolina...

A weak mid-level disturbance over MS/AL this morning will move east-northeastward today. Adequate heating of a moist boundary
layer will yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and
scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will
support some multicellular organization in the form of a few
thunderstorm clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will
potentially yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon
before this threat wanes by early evening.

...Central High Plains...

Latest model guidance shows isolated thunderstorms developing late
this afternoon within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow
associated with a north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough.
The 30-40 kt 500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates
may support a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms to develop
towards early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threat
with these storms.

...Ohio...

Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes today. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be located from eastern Kentucky into central and
northern Ohio, where dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. As instability increases during the day, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move northeastward across the instability
corridor. RAP forecast soundings in central Ohio at 21Z have 0-6 km
shear near 30 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150
m2/s2. This could be enough for an isolated tornado threat.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)