ACUS01 KWNS 281202
SWODY1
SPC AC 281200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...

With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and
central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject
eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS
Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread
northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a
low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the
lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a
weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain
over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big
Bend region.

A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the
ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning
warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX.
This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and
low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these
supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very
large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread
east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual
clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into
the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses
greater instability across AR and the Ozarks.

Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the
triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this
afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very
strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for
multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches)
may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very
favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even
though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.

Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern
Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In
its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS
Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift
northward some through the day, with the greater instability
forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse
rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through
the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and
multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to
numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely.
Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection
across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat
still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 061243
SWODY1
SPC AC 061242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave
troughs, one in the northern stream moving southward into UT/CO and
the other in southern stream off the southern CA/northern Baja
coast. Strong, confluent flow aloft exists downstream of these
shortwaves, with an extensive fetch of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow extending from northern Mexico into the
Northeast. A general deepening of the upper troughing is anticipated
throughout the day as the northern-stream shortwave continues
southeastward while the southern-stream shortwave moves gradually
eastward. This evolution will result in strengthening mid to upper
level flow from the southern Plain into New England, particularly
from the Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley where 500 mb flow
could exceed 100 kt. This evolution will also push a cold front,
which currently extends from the TX Hill Country into western PA,
farther south.

There will be some displacement between the strongest flow aloft and
the more warm and moist conditions south of the front. However,
even with this displacement, moderate to strong upper/mid flow is
still expected across much of the southern Plains and Southeast.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected along and ahead of
this cold front from the TX Hill Country through the Southeast and
into the Carolinas. Highest coverage of severe thunderstorms will be
from central MS into central AL, where supercells capable of all
hazards will be possible.

...East TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...

Recent surface analysis placed the cold front from near JCT in the
TX Hill Country northeastward through the Arklatex, northern MS, and
western TN. A weak low exists along this boundary over the western
AR/LA vicinity. 70s dewpoints extend from south TX across LA into
far western MS and southern AR, with upper 60s dewpoints through
much of MS. Low-level moisture advection is expected to continue
throughout the day, with mid 70s dewpoints possible from central LA
into central MS by the afternoon. This increasing moisture amid
filtered daytime heating will result in strong buoyancy ahead of the
front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE), despite poor mid-level lapse
rates. Also, as mentioned in the synopsis, strong deep-layer shear
will be in place, resulting in an overall airmass that supports supercells.

However, whether discrete supercells can develop and mature remains
uncertain. A combination of neutral height tendencies, widespread
cloud cover, and warm-air advection initiated storms will likely
lead to complex convective evolution and related storm interactions.
Majority of the convection-allowing guidance develops
thunderstorms within the warm sector from northern LA into central
MS by 18Z. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front from
northern AL into northern LA around this time as well. Large to very
large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, although
there is also a risk for tornadoes if a storm can remain discrete.
The tornado risk is expected to increase from the late afternoon
through the evening from central MS into central AL as low-level
hodographs lengthen in response to strengthening low-level flow.
Environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado
during this timeframe. Whether or not storms can realize this
increasing low-level shear will largely be a function of storm mode.
Storms should eventually begin to cluster and to grow upscale, with
an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards. Several rounds of elevated storms are possible
as well, with hail as the primary risk with these storms.

...TX Hill Country into southeast TX...

A pair of supercells capable of large hail are currently ongoing
across southwest TX (Crockett and Sutton Counties). Environmental
conditions are favorable for storm maintenance for at least an hour
or two before northward displacement from the better buoyancy leads
to weakening. Additional isolated development is possible farther
east into central and southeast TX during the afternoon and evening.
Any storms that mature would likely be supercellular and capable of
producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 102000
SWODY1
SPC AC 101958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor
adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The
convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to
surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance.
Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately
north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000
J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH
categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a
southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on
the expected 20 UTC frontal position.

Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged
ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the
Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight.
This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the
eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent
ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind
and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address
this potential.

Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have
transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun
weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new
convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the
south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s
along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be
minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms
through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional
short-term details.

..Moore.. 05/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/

...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...

Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.

Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.

There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.

Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.

Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period.

Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...

Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds.

...Florida...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 151250
SWODY1
SPC AC 151248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging winds and
large to very large hail are likely late this afternoon and evening
across much of Iowa and vicinity. Isolated to scattered severe hail
and damaging winds are possible over a broader area from parts of
the southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Generally zonal/westerly mid-level flow will persist over the
northern tier of the U.S. today, with an upper trough/low moving
slowly eastward over central Canada. At the surface, the primary low
will remain in northern Ontario, with a trailing cold front
extending southward into the Upper Midwest and northern/central
Plains. A secondary surface low will likely exist over southwest
KS/northwest OK by peak afternoon heating. A dryline will extend
southward from this low across much of the southern High Plains.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development along
the cold front/surface trough from eastern NE into IA to be delayed
until late afternoon or early evening (around 22-00Z), as
large-scale ascent will remain weak until a low-amplitude shortwave
trough embedded within the westerly mid-level flow eventually
overspreads the surface warm sector. Continued low-level warm/moist
advection through the day and diurnal heating will contribute to the development of moderate to locally strong instability across this
region by early evening. While low-level winds are forecast to
remain fairly modest, enhanced mid/upper-level flow will support
sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.

Initial supercells should pose a threat for large to isolated very
large hail (2+ inches in diameter), before likely quick upscale
growth this evening across IA supports a risk for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds. Some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a
localized basis given the expectation for an organized cluster and
ample instability. A tornado or two could also occur this evening as
low-level shear gradually increases with a strengthening low-level
jet. Some adjustments have been made to the Slight and Enhanced Risk
areas based on latest observational trends and short-term guidance.
Namely, the Slight Risk has been extended northward into parts of
southeast MN/southwest WI, where some risk for hail-producing
supercells should exist along/ahead of the front. The Enhanced Risk
has also been expanded to include more of western IA, as multiple
supercells may form and eventually congeal into one or more bowing
clusters through the evening.

...Southern High Plains...

Robust daytime heating will yield a very well-mixed/deep boundary
layer near/south of the secondary surface low over southwest KS and
vicinity. Mid-level temperatures will remain cool enough to support
at least weak instability, even with modest low-level
moisture/surface dewpoints. A weak mid-level shortwave trough moving
from the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains will enhance large-scale ascent late in the day. This should support the
development of high-based thunderstorms, with occasional strong to
severe wind gusts expected. Isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur
given the very deeply mixed boundary layer extending up to around
500 mb. Cells that develop in west/southwest TX may contain marginal
hail, with elongated hodographs in mid/upper levels.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 05/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 161249
SWODY1
SPC AC 161248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes should
occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains into Iowa.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper troughing will gradually amplify over the western
CONUS today, while modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level
flow persists over the southern/central Plains. A separate
mid/upper-level trough with strong westerly mid-level jet will move
eastward across the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec through the day,
while remaining generally displaced to the north of the surface warm
sector. At the surface, a weak low over the southern High Plains
this morning should reform over the central High Plains of eastern
CO by late afternoon, as large-scale ascent preceding the western
CONUS upper trough gradually overspreads this region. Greater
low-level moisture will remain confined along/south of a
convectively reinforced front from NE/IA into the southern Great
Lakes region. A dryline will extend southward from this boundary
across the southern/central High Plains.

...Central High Plains to Iowa...

High-based thunderstorms that initially develop across the higher
terrain of central CO this afternoon will eventually encounter a
more unstable airmass in eastern CO/western KS, as low-level
moisture gradually increases in the bent back region to the
north/northwest of the surface low. An increase in convective
coverage and intensity is anticipated as this activity spreads
eastward across the central High Plains late this afternoon and
evening, aided by at least moderate instability and deep-layer
shear. While some supercell potential will exist, along with a
threat for large to isolated very large hail, most guidance
continues to suggest that an intense bowing cluster will develop and
spread eastward along/near the surface boundary across southern
NE/northern KS through the evening. A greater threat for severe
winds, some of which could be significant (75+ mph), remains
apparent, as steep low/mid-level lapse rates aid in efficient
downward momentum transfer within the convective cluster. A modest
expansion has been made to the Enhanced Risk to account for the
potential of a slightly larger cluster.

A separate area of robust convective development should also occur
farther east this afternoon/evening across parts of IA and vicinity
along/near the surface front. This activity will likely be aided by strengthening low-level warm advection this evening, and it may
persist through much of the night. The presence of steep mid-level
lapse rates, increasing low-level moisture, and daytime heating all
suggest that moderate to locally strong instability will likely be
in place by late afternoon along/south of the front. While westerly
mid-level flow should only be modestly enhanced, sufficient
deep-layer shear is forecast to support supercells initially. Large
to very large hail (isolated 2+ inches) appears possible within the
first couple hours of initiation, before thunderstorm
mergers/interactions occur and the overall mode becomes messy. Some
increase in the severe/damaging wind threat may develop if a more
organized cluster can emerge and spread east-southeastward through
the evening and early overnight hours. A few tornadoes also appear
possible through the evening with any sustained supercells. This
potential should remain focused along/near the front where backed
low-level easterly winds may locally enhance 0-1 km SRH.

...Southern High Plains...

Isolated thunderstorms may initiate this afternoon along the surface
dryline from southwest KS into the eastern OK/TX Panhandles and
western OK. While deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward
extent across the southern High Plains, a narrow zone of minimal
MLCIN along/east of the dryline may support isolated convection
capable of producing both locally severe hail and wind gusts.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from
central MO into the Midwest/OH Valley. This convection is likely
being aided by warm/moist advection associated with a
west-southwesterly low-level jet. While instability remains fairly
limited at the moment, some potential for occasional gusty winds and
marginally severe hail should continue through the late morning with
this activity. Greater destabilization is forecast along/south of
this ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this afternoon.
One or more convectively enhanced MCVs may aid robust thunderstorm
development across parts of western/central KY, with a threat for
scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail. A brief tornado
or two also appears possible. A Slight Risk has been introduced
across this area where a more focused risk for damaging winds has
become apparent in short-term guidance.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 05/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 171252
SWODY1
SPC AC 171250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across
parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible
initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads
to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS should further
amplify today as an embedded mid-level jet and associated shortwave
trough move from the West Coast to the Four Corners region through
the period. A broad zone of around 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level
flow will persist today from the southern/central High Plains to the
Upper Midwest, with multiple small-scale perturbations forecast to
advance northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a low
over western KS this morning is expected to gradually develop
northeastward towards the KS/NE border vicinity this evening. A
dryline trailing from this low will mix eastward through late
afternoon peak heating across the southern/central High Plains. A
warm front will attempt to lift northward today across NE/IA into
southeast SD and parts of southern MN, while a cold front is
forecast to gradually advance southeastward across the
northern/central Plains through the period.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Initial thunderstorm development appears likely across eastern CO
this afternoon in a low-level upslope flow regime. This activity
will likely become supercellular and capable of producing large to
very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates,
strong deep-layer shear, and moderate instability. By 20-22Z,
additional robust convection is expected to develop along/near the
cold front across north-central NE/south-central SD in a rapidly
destabilizing airmass. There is still some uncertainty with how far
north the warm front and related rich low-level moisture will reach
across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, especially given ongoing
convection and related outflow this morning across NE/IA.

Still, an increasing large hail threat remains evident with any
convection that develops along/near the cold front this afternoon,
as ample MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts, including supercells initially. A strong tornado threat
will exist with any of these supercells that can become/remain
surface based, as low-level shear strengthens through the late
afternoon/early evening. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds
should develop as convection quickly grows upscale into bowing
clusters this evening. The northeastward extent of this severe wind
threat remains a bit uncertain, especially into southern/central MN
where the warm front is forecast to reach. A risk for embedded QLCS
tornadoes may continue with the surface-based portion of the cluster.

Thunderstorm initiation farther south along the length of the
dryline appears somewhat conditional given modest large-scale
ascent. But, most guidance continues to show at least isolated
high-based convection developing by late afternoon across parts of north-central KS southward into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK.
Any thunderstorms which can be sustained will pose a threat for
large to very large hail and tornadoes, especially across KS where a
40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will enhance 0-1 km shear. A strong
tornado appears possible this evening with any supercell that can
persist, although there should be a tendency for upscale growth into
a severe wind producing cluster with time as the cold front
overtakes the dryline.

...Great Lakes/Lower Michigan...

Recent radar and visible satellite imagery show an MCV associated
with earlier convection across the central Plains is present over IA
this morning. This feature is forecast to track east-northeastward
today, and should approach eastern WI and Lower MI by late
afternoon/early evening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level
wind field should exist in close proximity to this MCV, and the
surface warm front is expected to gradually develop northward across
these regions through the day. Some intensification of convection is
possible this afternoon/evening along and near the warm front, with
sufficient instability and shear to support a mix of supercells and
multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado. A Slight Risk has been added for parts of Lower
MI given increased confidence in this scenario occurring.

...Southeast...

On the western periphery of a surface high centered over the western
Atlantic, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus
from the southern Appalachians across GA and the interior/western FL
Peninsula. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, a
favorable thermodynamic environment with steepened low-level lapse
rates should support strong to pulse-severe type convection capable
of producing isolated wind damage/downbursts and perhaps marginally
severe hail.

...Central and North Texas/ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...

A fairly robust cap is expected to remain across the southern extent
of the warm sector today, with minimal/nebulous large-scale ascent
over the southern Plains. Still, some guidance suggests elevated
thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across
parts of northeast TX into the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley in a
persistent low-level warm advection regime. If this occurs, then
isolated severe hail and damaging winds would be possible given the
strong MUCAPE forecast.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Mid-level ridging should build over the Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon, which should tend to suppress most convection. However, a
weak mid-level perturbation noted in water vapor imagery this
morning over OH may support isolated convective development this
afternoon across parts of MD/PA and vicinity. The overall
environment does not appear overly favorable for organized severe thunderstorms, but gusty winds could occur with any of the stronger
cores that may develop.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)