ACUS02 KWNS 280529
SWODY2
SPC AC 280527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast
vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong
storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.

...Discussion...
Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland
across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period,
but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the
Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave
impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia
coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may
accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas,
but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion.

A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern
Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression,
but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as
southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday
night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is
forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic
Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin
to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.

The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will
likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging
across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake
of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest
that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate
from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great
Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a
developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late
Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within
the guidance concerning this evolution.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast...

Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this
period. The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm
elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated
sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to
the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas. Across the
upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states,
conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today
through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward
advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this
outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday.

Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of
the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm
initiation with boundary-layer destabilization. Guidance suggests
that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient
for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could
evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with
potential to produce severe hail and wind.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...

Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the
initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and
the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue
Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective
potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede
destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate
boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and
forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet
could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This
may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential
for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of
the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 030505
SWODY2
SPC AC 030503

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will dig southward across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest on Monday. At the same time, a upper low near CA and
attendant trough will pivot eastward toward the Southwest. At the
surface, low pressure over Ontario will develop northeast toward
James Bay while a trailing cold front moves southeast across the northern/central Plains and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity.
Meanwhile, a second surface low is forecast to deepen in the
vicinity of western KS/OK with a dryline extending southward across
central KS/western OK and west-central TX. Modest southerly return
flow will transport mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints northward
across OK/eastern KS into MO. More modest boundary layer moisture is
expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the Midwest.

...Eastern KS toward Lake Michigan and western OH...

Modest boundary layer moisture and uncertainty in timing/location of
the surface front contribute to uncertainty in severe potential for
Monday. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft will support steep
midlevel lapse rates and a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE appears
likely ahead of the front. A lead shortwave impulse will migrate
across the OH Valley during the day. This may provide sufficient
forcing for ascent for isolated thunderstorm development within an
uncapped and modestly sheared airmass. Strong storms could produce
small hail and gusty winds. Additional strong storms are possible
during the afternoon further to the northwest near the surface front
from eastern IA toward Lake Michigan. However, boundary layer
moisture will likely be even more limited across this area, leading
to weaker instability. Nevertheless, a well mixed boundary layer
could support strong wind gusts.

Stronger ascent will arrive after 00z across the central Plains and
Mid-MS Valley vicinity in tandem with an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple
points in central/eastern KS and into MO as the surface cold front
drops southward. This activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts.

...Southwest OK vicinity...

Some forecast guidance develops thunderstorms near the dryline late afternoon/early evening across the southwest OK vicinity. Large
scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region and capping may
preclude thunderstorm development. However, strong heating west of
the dryline and strong convergence in model guidance are noted. If a
storm could break the cap, a severe risk could develop. However, coverage/temporal risk would likely be limited and confidence in
this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 101722
SWODY2
SPC AC 101720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.

... Overview ...

As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough
will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana
on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag
south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the
midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion
of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low
that will move east along the front.

... Southeast US ...

Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into
the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result
in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning.
Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a
marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of
the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also
develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail
occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland
moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern Florida.

Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less
certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the
sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to
the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and
inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant
disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the
coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel
vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the
wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment
will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal
wind threat.

..Marsh.. 05/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 110555
SWODY2
SPC AC 110553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far
northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois,
northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin.

...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwest Great Lakes...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move southeastward through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the
surface, a low will move southeastward across Wisconsin as a cold
front advances southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front in the
afternoon as surface heating takes place and low-level convergence
becomes more focused. The storms are forecast to move toward an
instability axis located from southeast Kansas to north-central
Illinois. Along this axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon with 0-6
km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. Low-level lapse rates
are also forecast to become steep just ahead of the front. This
environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat, with
hail and strong wind gusts possible. The strongest instability and
steepest mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be further southwest
into parts of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, where a
locally greater hail threat will be possible in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 120541
SWODY2
SPC AC 120539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts are expected on
Wednesday across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians,
northern Rockies and Great Basin. Hail will also be possible in
parts of western Montana.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...

An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the Great
Lakes on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet streak translates southeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a low will move
eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute
to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to
scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming
due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep in
the afternoon peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range, which should
support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Northern Rockies/Great Basin...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move through the northwestern
U.S. on Wednesday as a 60 to 80 knot jet streak passes eastward into
the northern Rockies. At the surface, a trough will develop from
western Montana southward into Idaho and Utah, ahead of a cold front
passing through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface trough, an
axis of instability will be in place by afternoon as surface
temperatures warm into the 80s F. In response, thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain from western Montana southward into the
deserts of eastern Idaho and northern Utah. Near the instability
axis, low to mid-level lapse rates will be very steep likely
exceeding 9 C/km. This will support a threat for isolated severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur in the northern Rockies.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 190549
SWODY2
SPC AC 190548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will
be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday,
with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the
southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward
into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and
near the high terrain of western Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front
Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The
downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will
be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few
instances of strong to severe winds.

...Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western
Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate
to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe winds.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 200554
SWODY2
SPC AC 200552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central
Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move
through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front
remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley
into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in
Colorado.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest
upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates,
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from
south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of
large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern
extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe
threat downstream.

Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far
western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear
should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and
small hail will be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture
and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely
scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary
front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.
While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear
profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall
severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from
the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe
thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.

...TX/OK Panhandles...

Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock
and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce
scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are
progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into
portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of
steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the
OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate
instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear
around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may
produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.

...Middle Texas Coast...

Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau
on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle
Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across
portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of
deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.

...Central/Southern Georgia...

A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as
widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance
suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few
more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to
severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 230555
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a
stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower
Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A weak
shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest on D2/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska into Minnesota. Large hail
and damaging wind will be the primary threat with these storms.

...Nebraska into Minnesota...

A plume of mid 50s to 60s dew points will advect northward into
portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota Sunday
afternoon amid increasing southerly flow across the central/northern
Plains. A weak shortwave will move eastward across this area with
thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest that deep layer shear will be sufficient to support
supercells, with around 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer. In addition to
the increase in moisture, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
also overspread the area. This, in combination with strong deep
layer shear, will favor potential for large hail (isolated very
large hail up to 2" in diameter). Well mixed profiles may also
support a few instances of strong to severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)