ACUS02 KWNS 271746
SWODY2
SPC AC 271744

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Large to very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...Southeastern Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley...

Within broad southwesterly flow aloft, a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough is forecast to move from the south-central Rockies toward the
mid MS Valley on Tuesday. Other low-amplitude vorticity maxima may
move from TX toward the TN Valley and Southeast, to the south of the
primary shortwave trough. These features will impinge upon a
reservoir of strong instability extending from the southern Plains
into the lower MS Valley, resulting in a potentially active severe
weather episode Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Elevated convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the
region Tuesday morning, which could pose a threat for large hail and
locally gusty winds, especially within the more favorable lapse
rate/buoyancy environment across the southern Plains into the
ArkLaTex. Strong diurnal destabilization will be possible by Tuesday
afternoon, to the east of a dryline across TX, and along and to the
warm side of an outflow-influenced front extending from southeast OK
toward the mid MS Valley. Evolution of storm development remains
uncertain, but initiation will be possible along the dryline/front
and any other outflow boundaries in place by afternoon.

Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg across TX, and 2000 J/kg
as far east as the ArkLaMiss) and favorable deep-layer shear will
support supercell development, with an attendant threat of very
large hail initially. Modestly enhanced low-level flow from east TX
into the ArkLaMiss will also support some tornado potential, with
some conditional risk of a strong tornado with any sustained
supercell. An increase in storm coverage should lead to development
of storm clusters and potentially an MCS that would spread eastward
into the evening, with one or more swaths of damaging wind possible.
Storms should eventually weaken late in the period as they encounter
weaker instability with eastward extent, but the severe threat could
persist through much of the night with any organized storm structures.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

$$
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* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 160602
SWODY2
SPC AC 160601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will
deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners
into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into
Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a
lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the
day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will
deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist
southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the
central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by
the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central
Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps
as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

...NE to MN...

Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind
morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud
cover. Better clearing will be possible across
southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be
present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg
and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska
into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening
southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a
low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern
Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may
develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska.
Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some
strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow
upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandles...

Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these
regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be
difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may
develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the
evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and
damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$
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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)