ACUS01 KWNS 041302
SWODY1
SPC AC 041300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur today and
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower
Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a tornado or two
will be possible.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...
A compact mid-level shortwave trough evident in water vapor
satellite imagery this morning over the central High Plains will
move eastward towards the Mid MS Valley by tonight. As this occurs,
a narrow swath of around 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will
overspread parts of the southern Plains to lower OH Valley.
Large-scale ascent should remain modest with this system, resulting
in only a weak surface low developing northeastward along a
quasi-stationary surface front from OK into southern IL/IN. South of
the front, southerly low-level flow will support dewpoints climbing
into generally the low to mid 60s. This increasing moisture beneath
steep mid-level lapse rates amid filtered daytime heating should
support MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow
corridor along/ahead of the front. Locally greater instability
should develop across north-central into central TX where stronger
daytime heating is expected.

Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strongest in closer proximity to
the mid-level jet and surface front from eastern OK into AR,
southern MO, and the lower OH Valley. Effective bulk shear of 35-50
kt will easily support organized convection across these areas.
However, convective mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad
ascent within the modest low-level warm advection regime near the
surface front. Additionally, ongoing elevated convection this
morning across the northern OK/southeast KS vicinity and related
cloudiness may hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization
downstream. Farther south into north/central TX, weaker deep-layer
shear may limit updraft organization to some extent.

Even with these potential limitations, a broad area of isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorm potential exists today and tonight. An
isolated hail threat should persist with ongoing elevated convection
this morning moving northeast across parts of OK/KS into MO and
southern IL. By this afternoon, surface-based thunderstorm
development should occur closer to the surface front. A mix of
supercells and clusters will pose a risk for large hail. Damaging
winds will also be possible where steepened low-level lapse rates
can develop with daytime heating. Although low-level flow is not
forecast to become overly strong, there should be sufficient 0-1 km
SRH to support some threat for a couple of tornadoes with any
sustained supercells/clusters near the surface boundary.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 041628
SWODY1
SPC AC 041626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through
tonight from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma to the Ozarks
and Lower Ohio Valley. Large hail, localized wind damage, and a
tornado or two are possible.

...Southern Plains to the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...
Well in advance of an amplifying trough over the Great Basin, a
low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough over the
south-central High Plains will continue east-northeastward over the
Lower Missouri Valley through tonight. A base-embedded modestly
increasing belt of southwesterly mid-level flow (50+ kt) will
maximize from northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas across the Ozarks,
in general proximity to a weak surface low/frontal zone across the
region where deep-layer/low-level shear are expected to be maximized.

South of the front, southerly low-level flow will support dewpoints
climbing into generally the low to mid 60s F. While cloud cover may
remain semi-prevalent across the warm sector, this increasing
moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates amid filtered daytime
heating should support MLCAPE values generally around 1000-1500 J/kg
in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the front. Locally greater
instability should develop across north-central into central Texas
where stronger daytime heating is expected, although
deep-layer/low-level shear will be notably weaker, while still
sufficient for relatively isolated severe storms.

Across most of the Slight Risk area, effective bulk shear of 35-50
kt will easily support organized convection regionally, although
convective mode may tend to be somewhat messy given broad ascent
within the modest low-level warm advection regime near the surface
front. Additionally, ongoing mostly elevated convection this morning
across northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and southern
Illinois may hamper stronger heating and limit destabilization
downstream, with outflow/existing convection contributing to modal
complexity later today.

Even with these potential limitations, a broad area of isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorm potential exists through tonight. An
isolated and/or occasional hail threat may persist with ongoing
elevated convection from southern Missouri into southern
Indiana/northern Kentucky. Surface-based thunderstorm development
should otherwise become more probable across the Ozarks into
mid/late afternoon closer to the surface front/surface low and
modifying outflow. A mix of supercells and clusters will pose a risk
for large hail. Damaging winds will also be possible where steepened
low-level lapse rates can develop with daytime heating. Although
low-level flow is not forecast to become overly strong, there should
be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to support some threat for a couple of
tornadoes with any sustained supercells/clusters, particularly
across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 03/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 070603
SWODY1
SPC AC 070602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND WEST VIRGINIA...AND OVER MUCH OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday morning into
the evening across over parts of Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and New York, and from much of Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will sweep across the upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes today, while a surface low pivots northeast
from the Great Lakes into Quebec. A cold front will extend
southwestward from the low, extending from northwest OH into
southeast TX by 00Z. To the east, a warm front will lift north
across VA and into western NY and PA during the day.

Ahead of the cold front, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend from
TX into IN and OH, with mid to upper 60s F across the lower MS
Valley and 70 F dewpoints near the Gulf Coast. East of the
Appalachians, lower 60s F dewpoints will develop northward as far
north as VA, MD and DE. Shear will be maximized from the Ohio Valley
into the northeast in association with the upper trough, with the
greatest relative severe potential there.

...OH Valley into western NY/PA/WV...
Height falls will occur during the day across the region, with
increasing wind speeds and shear. Daytime heating and southwest
surface winds will lead to sufficient instability to support
afternoon severe storms from parts of the OH Valley northeastward
into western NY/PA. Here, lift and low-level shear will be
accentuated along the warm front, possibly supporting a few
supercells with attendant tornado risk just ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, 40-50 kt mean wind speeds just off the surface, in
combination with linear forcing along the advancing front will favor
wind damage.

...TX into the Lower MS Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of
the cold front as it plunges south through the period. Given mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front, substantial elevated
instability will remain well north of the boundary as well as ahead
of it. Sufficient mid to high level shear may aid hail production
with cells even as they are undercut. Otherwise, any convection
forming ahead of the front may also produce strong wind gusts, aided
by modest southwest winds in the lower few km.

..Jewell/Moore.. 03/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 091236
SWODY1
SPC AC 091234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex and Mid-South
through the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving through the TX Panhandle, embedded within the westerly
flow aloft well downstream from an upper low off the Baja California
Coast. This shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South by this evening and the
southern Appalachians by early tomorrow. Enhanced mid-level flow
(i.e. 500 mb winds around 50 kt) will accompany this wave, spreading
eastward in tandem with the progression of the wave.

Recent surface analysis shows a relatively moist airmass already in
place from the southern Plains through much of the Southeast. Mid
60s dewpoints currently extend from the TX Coastal Plain through
east TX and over much of LA. This moist airmass is expected to
advect quickly northward/northeastward throughout the day, largely
in response to strengthening low to mid-level flow downstream of the
increasing westerlies across the Plains. Ascent attendant to the
embedded shortwave coupled with the increasing moisture and buoyancy
will likely result in thunderstorm development from the Arklatex and
Mid-South through much the Southeast.

...Arklatex/Mid-South through the Southeast...
A diffuse stationary front currently extends from east-central OK
into northern AL before shifting more northeastward across eastern
TN. Modest warm-air advection is ongoing throughout the western
portion of this boundary, supported by the increasing low to
mid-level flow just ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis. Isolated thunderstorms have already developed across
southeast OK, and this is likely the beginning of a thunderstorm
cluster that is expected to develop from the Arklatex into the
Mid-South vicinity this morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate vertical shear suggest some hail is possible with this
early activity. Recently issued MCD #0177 provides additional
information for this early morning activity.

Most of the guidance suggests that the resulting thunderstorm
cluster becomes increasingly organized with time, growing upscale
into an MCS before then progressing across northern MS and northern
AL. The preceding airmass should be moderately moist and buoyant,
with dewpoints likely in the mid 60s and MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500
J/kg. Moderate vertical shear should be in place as well, with the
resulting conditions supportive of MCS maintenance through the
afternoon. The same conditions will support robust updrafts capable
of large hail and damaging gusts. Additional, more cellular activity
is possible in the wake of the main MCS, with conditions remaining
favorable for hail. Overall tornado potential appears to be limited
by the likely linear mode as well as the relatively weak low-level
flow. Even so, the modest low-level curvature expected supports a low-probability tornado threat.

...Southern AZ...
A strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z before shifting into northwest Mexico by the end
of the period. Steep lapse rates are forecast across southern AZ
within a favorable zone for large-scale ascent. Thermodynamic
profiles suggest scattered convection will develop and spread north
across this region. Forecast soundings show limited buoyancy,
suggesting this activity should struggle to attain severe levels.
Even so, small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest,
most persistent updrafts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/09/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 121233
SWODY1
SPC AC 121232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds
across parts of the Southeast this morning into the early afternoon.
A tornado can not be ruled out early with this activity. Strong wind
gusts are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon as well.

...Southeast into the Carolinas...

Early-morning satellite imagery shows phased shortwave troughs
within the broad upper troughing across the eastern CONUS, with the
southern shortwave progressing through the Southeast and the
northern shortwave moving into the Middle OH Valley. A convective
line, aided by ascent attendant to the southern shortwave, continues
to progress eastward/northeastward across GA and the FL Panhandle. A
warm, moist, and modestly buoyant environment precedes this line,
with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints ranging
from the low 60s across the Carolinas to the low 70s across northern
FL. Expectation is for this line to persist as it continues eastward/northeastward, with perhaps some slowing of the southern
portion of the line as it becomes displaced south of the better
forcing for ascent. Central portion of this line nearest the
strongest forcing will likely have the deepest updrafts for the next
several hours before progressing northeastward of the better
moisture and buoyancy as it moves across NC. Robust low to mid-level
flow will remain in place, supporting the potential for damaging
gusts and brief line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon.

...Northern Plains...

Intense mid-level flow (i.e. 100-120 kt at 500 mb) will spread
southeastward across the northern Plains this afternoon, in tandem
with a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing through the
region. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve south
of the front across the northern Plains such that shallow convection
is expected to develop, along with the threat of some lightning.
This convection could augment the already strong
westerly/northwesterly flow, resulting in strong surface wind gusts. Significant wind gusts (65+ kt) are possible.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 221231
SWODY1
SPC AC 221230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear likely this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Large
to very large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats,
but a tornado or two may also occur.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...

Gradual amplification of mid/upper-level troughing will occur today
as a shortwave trough moves quickly eastward across the northern
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes through the period. A belt of
enhanced mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread
much of the OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic today, while
modest/shallow low-level moisture streams northward across these
regions ahead of a surface cold front. This front is expected to sag
slowly south-southeastward this afternoon and evening across the OH
Valley into PA, and will likely serve as a focus for strong to
severe convection later today.

The NAM remains on the aggressive side of short-term guidance with
the degree of low-level moisture present ahead of the front by mid
afternoon, with consensus of most other guidance suggesting that the
boundary layer will become well mixed with robust daytime heating
(surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s). Even so, cool
mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft will
contribute to the development of weak to moderate instability
(MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg in a narrow zone along/ahead of the
cold front). Favorable deep-layer shear (40-50+ kt) will foster
updraft organization, including the potential for supercells.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop by
19-22Z across eastern OH into western/central PA near the front, as
MLCIN should become minimal with northeastward extent across the
upper OH Valley by this time frame. This initially discrete
convection should quickly acquire supercell characteristics, and
large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) appears
to be the main threat given relatively long/straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels and the presence of steepened mid-level lapse
rates. This activity may tend to grow upscale as it moves
east-southeastward across PA through the evening, with an increasing
threat for scattered severe/damaging winds where low-level lapse
rates can become steepened with daytime heating.

Additional thunderstorms should eventually develop this evening
farther to the southwest across much of the OH Valley as the front
continues shifting south-southeastward. Much of this convection may
tend to become elevated along/north of the undercutting cold front.
But, it should still pose a threat for large hail, as moderate
MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will favor supercell structures
initially. The Marginal and Slight Risks have been adjusted/shifted
northward a little to account for where robust convection will
likely develop this afternoon/evening. The tornado potential today
remains uncertain, as expectations for a well-mixed boundary layer
across the warm sector this afternoon will likely promote large
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and high LCLs. Still, a tornado
or two appears possible along/ahead of the front, assuming
convection can remain surface based.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/22/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 301234
SWODY1
SPC AC 301232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning as well as over the Texas South Plains this
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a relatively zonal pattern in
places across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is
across the Gulf Coast, which is along the northern periphery of
modest subtropical ridging. Recent surface analysis shows a broad
area of low pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains
with several embedded lows, including one over southwest SD, another
over south-central NE, and another near the OK/KS/CO border
intersection. Modest troughing extends between these features, while
a stationary front extends from the southwest SD low
east-northeastward across southern MN and central WI. At 11Z, mid
50s dewpoints extended from south-central OK into the Mid-South,
with 60s dewpoints farther so from central TX into the Lower MS Valley.

Overall upper pattern is expected to remain predominantly zonal
throughout the period as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
along the US/Canada border, accompanied by a strengthening jet
streak. Substantial low-level moisture advection is expected
throughout the day from the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley into the
Mid MS and OH Valleys and Lower MI. By early tomorrow morning, mid
50s dewpoints will likely extend from southern WI across Lower MI
and into the upper OH Valley, demarcating a developing warm front.

Primary area of thunderstorm development anticipated today is in the
vicinity of the developing warm front from the mid/upper MS Valley
across the Lower Great Lakes into the Upper OH Valley and Northeast.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible with the moist and
confluent environments of the FL Peninsula and the Lower MS Valley
as well as along the dryline in the southern High Plains and
seasonably moist airmass over the Southwest.

....Mid/Upper MS Valley into Lower MI and the Upper OH Valley...

Significant low-level moisture advection is expected throughout the
day into Mid MS Valley, although this advection will be offset
somewhat by strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing. General
expectation is that upper 50s dewpoints will reach the IA/MO/central
IL vicinity by 00Z, with mid 50s farther north into southern WI and
southern Lower MI. Given negligible large-scale forcing and strong
mixing, capping is expected prevail throughout the day and into the
early evening. However, beginning around 22-00Z, increasing
mid-level moisture coupled with continued low-level moisture
advection and convergence near a weak surface low could result in
convective initiation across central IA. The earliest development
could be surface based with a trend towards more elevated storms
with time and northeastward extent as warm-air advection increase
during the evening. Steep lapse rates and moderate shear support the
potential for supercells with any more sustained updrafts. Large to
isolated very large hail is the primary severe risk. Even with the
elevated storm character, the prevailing warm/dry conditions above
the shallow return moisture could support strong downdrafts with
strong surface gusts.

Farther east, a few instances of small hail are possible from
western PA into western NY with the thunderstorms expected during
the evening and overnight.

...Southern High Plains...

Isolated thunderstorm development is possible along a dryline
forecast to extend from a weak low in western KS southwestward into
the TX Trans Pecos. Buoyancy will be weak and vertical shear modest
so storm structures are not expected to be particularly robust or
long lived. However, high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support a few stronger gusts at the surface.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 301614
SWODY1
SPC AC 301613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and evening.

...IA to Lower MI...

Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states today,
with minor perturbations embedded within the flow field affecting
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. A combination of
daytime heating, low-level warm/moist advection, and increasing
low-level convergence along a surface baroclinic zone will result in
scattered thunderstorms after dark over IA. These storms will form
in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear. MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg will promote
strong updrafts with a few supercells possible. Large hail appears
to be the main threat with these storms as they progress eastward
into northern IL/southern WI and slowly weaken with diurnal cooling.

Storms will persist through the night and spread across much of
lower MI. Despite weak instability, a few CAM solutions maintain
vigorous updrafts, supporting a low risk of hail and gusty winds overnight.

...TX Panhandle...

Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s will yield a moderately
unstable air mass along the dryline over the TX Panhandle this
evening. Most CAM guidance show isolated thunderstorm development
in this region - mainly in the 23-03z period. Forecast soundings
suggest the low/mid troposphere is dry and will limit the number of
updrafts that can survive. However, any storm that can persist will
pose a risk of gusty winds or hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)