ACUS02 KWNS 040658
SWODY2
SPC AC 040656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
into Thursday night from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Large hail and severe
wind gusts, along with a couple tornadoes will be possible.

...West and Central Texas/Western Oklahoma/South-central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly over the
south-central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the
southern and central Plains. By midday, surface dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s F across the moist sector, as a dryline develops
over west Texas. Warming surface temperatures during the day will
result in the development of moderate instability to the east of the
dryline across much of west and central Texas northward into the
eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. By late afternoon,
convective initiation is expected near and just east of the dryline
on the Caprock of west Texas. These storms will grow upscale
quickly, with multiple convective clusters moving eastward into the
Low Rolling Plains of northwest Texas and into western Oklahoma.
Additional storms are expected to form in south-central Kansas
during the evening.

Due to the system in the western U.S. and the associated
southwesterly flow ahead of it, a strong low-level jet is forecast
to develop during the late afternoon and early evening across the
southern Plains. This feature will contribute to moderate deep-layer
shear over much of the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings
in the early evening from east of Lubbock northward into the Texas
Panhandle have gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels with
around 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable
for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts. In the
late afternoon/early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, which will likely
support a tornado threat with the most intense storms. As low-level
moisture increases across parts of southern and central Kansas
during the evening, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop. A severe threat may eventually affect central
Oklahoma and central to eastern Kansas from mid evening into the
overnight period.

...Northern Kansas/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Western and Central Iowa...

Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the central
U.S. on Thursday. In response, strong moisture advection will
continue from Thursday into Thursday night across the central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected develop across the region starting in the late evening,
with storm coverage steadily increasing during the overnight as a
low-level jet strengthens. Forecast soundings show a low-level
temperature inversion, but develop weak instability aloft, with
MUCAPE increasing into the 500 to 1200 J/kg range across much of
northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and northwestern
Missouri. In addition, effective shear is forecast to increase into
the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment will favor the development
of elevated strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail
and marginally severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist
through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 060655
SWODY2
SPC AC 060653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the
southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large
hail may occur in parts of Texas.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the
Southwest/Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming
positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface,
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it shifts
northeast across Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will
extend south/southwest from the low toward the Lower MO Valley and
into north and central TX at the beginning of the period. This front
will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and Mid-South/TN Valley
vicinity, while the Plains portion of the front develops southward
across TX.

...Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing across portions of the region Saturday
morning along outflow positioned well ahead of the synoptic cold
front. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface
cyclone over the Great Lakes will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across the region. Cloudiness and ongoing convection will
limit surface heating. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
and modest destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will support
sustained thunderstorm development into the afternoon/evening.

The greatest risk for severe appears to be across the Upper Ohio
Valley where some stronger heating is possible. Sufficient low-level
speed shear will be present to enlarge low-level hodographs.
Furthermore, 0-1 km SRH values near 150 m2/s2 are noted in some
forecast soundings. However, linear convection is expected to be the
main storm mode given boundary-parallel deep-layer southwesterly
flow, promoting mainly a damaging wind risk. However, if any
cellular convection develops, an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail and a tornado or two also will be possible.

...TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

Convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front Saturday
morning. Some of this convection may be elevated as it quickly
becomes undercut by the cold front, especially near the Red River
into portions of AR. This activity may pose a risk for severe hail
early in the period across north TX into southeast OK and parts of
AR. Convection is expected to develop south and east along the front
through the day. The downstream warm sector will be characterized by
low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates,
supporting MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. Linear convection will
be most predominant across the Mid-South into the TN valley where a
risk for isolated to scattered wind damage and marginal hail will
exist through the afternoon before a weakening trend ensues after
sunset across the Deep South.

Across TX, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Low level flow
is expected to remain modest further removed from the upper
shortwave trough and surface cyclone across the Midwest/Great Lakes.
However, stronger heating, steeper low and midlevel lapse rates, and
favorable wind profiles for organized supercells will support a
corridor of severe hail potential from central TX toward southwest
AR/northwest LA near the undercutting cold front. The strongest
storms could produce hail in the 1.5-2 inch range.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 080615
SWODY2
SPC AC 080613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the
southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening.
In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis
is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will
support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in
place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern
LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper
flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3 km.

Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage,
but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop
within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk
for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter)
and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be
possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...

At mid-levels on Sunday, an amplifying trough will move quickly east-southeastward across the north-central U.S, as an associated
jet streak translates eastward into the southern Great Lakes. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley.
South of the front, moderate instability will develop across a moist
airmass by early afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s F. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level
convergence will result in convective initiation along parts of the
front during the mid to late afternoon. Storm coverage is forecast
to gradually increase as several clusters or line segments with a
severe threat move southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the
late afternoon and early evening.

During the afternoon from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh, forecast
soundings gradually increase MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range.
Forecasts just ahead of the front suggest that winds will be veered
to the southwest near the surface, but that strong speed shear will
exist in the lower to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range
from 40 to 50 knots, which should be favorable for severe
thunderstorm development. 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.0 to 7.5
C/km range should support supercells with large hail. The supercell
threat is expected to be greatest early in the event, when cells are
more likely to be discrete. A threat for severe wind gusts is also
expected. The wind-damage threat should be concentrated along short
line segments that form in the late afternoon and early evening. A
marginal tornado threat will also be possible.

Further west-southwest into the lower Ohio Valley and mid
Mississippi Valley, the models are forecasting a stout capping
inversion to the south of the front over much of the warm sector.
Near the front in the early evening, the cap is forecast to weaken.
This combined with increasing low-level convergence near the front
should be enough for isolated convective initiation. A marginal
threat for hail and severe wind gusts would be possible with the
stronger cells that can initiate and persist.

..Broyles.. 03/21/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day
and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated
strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the
southern Plains with localized hail/wind.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor
imagery across the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, a diffuse lee
cyclone is noted in surface observations across the High Plains.
Over the next 24-48 hours, this cyclone will intensify as it
translates east across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region in
tandem with the upper wave. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest
ahead of this low and along a trailing cold front with increasingly
sparse convective coverage with southwestward extent into the
Plains. Elsewhere across the country, isolated thunderstorms are
expected across portions of Southeast states within a plume of
returning rich low-level moisture as well as across the Southwest
and northern Great Basin as ascent associated with a weak upper
disturbance overspreads the region.

...Great Lakes...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
early Tuesday morning within the warm frontal zone of the
approaching cyclone. Based on latest high-res guidance, this
activity should largely exit the upper Great Lakes region by early
afternoon and allow for some degree of air mass recovery ahead of
the approaching cold front. Westerly 40-50 knot shear vectors will
likely support initially semi-discrete storm modes across portions
of the upper MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity by early afternoon
with an attendant large hail risk.

With time, upscale growth along the front into one or more linear
segments is expected - especially in close proximity to the surface
low where forcing for ascent will be greatest. Latest HREF/REFS
ensemble guidance continues to depict the strongest convective
signal across lower MI and downstream into the Lake Erie region
where low-level moistening should support MLCAPE values upwards of
1500 J/kg ahead of the low. Additionally, low-level warm advection
preceding the surface low will support 0-1 km SRH values on the
order of 250 m2/s2 across the lower Great Lakes region. While it
remains unclear whether or not discrete storms can develop within
the diffuse warm frontal zone ahead of any convective
lines/clusters, a tornado threat may materialize as convection moves
into the favorably sheared environment during the evening hours.

...Southern Plains...
Modest deepening of a lee trough/low across the southern High Plains
will support some tightening of a dryline across western OK into
adjacent portions of northwest TX as a cold front stalls across
northwest OK. Ample heating/mixing and weak low-level convergence
may sufficiently erode inhibition and provide adequate ascent along
the dryline and/or cold front to support at least a few isolated
thunderstorms. A combination of marginal deep-layer wind shear
(25-30 knots of effective bulk shear) and dry low-level conditions
may support an isolated hail and severe wind risk with the more
robust convection.

..Moore.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 310603
SWODY2
SPC AC 310601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
By 12 UTC Wednesday, a stalled frontal boundary will likely be
draped from the southern/central Plains eastward along the OH Valley
and into the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, a progressive upper wave will
traverse the Southwest during the day, eventually ejecting into the
southern Plains around or after 00 UTC. The approach of the upper
wave will support lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO into western
KS, which will foster northward advection of low 60s dewpoints
(already noted in early-morning surface observations along the TX
coast) into OK and eastern KS by late afternoon. The intensification
of the low will also promote a northward advancement of the boundary
as a warm front into northern MO and possibly southern IA by late
evening, as well as the sharpening of a dryline across western OK
into northwest and western TX through the day. Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused along/ahead of the
dryline and in proximity to the warm front as the upper wave begins
to eject during the early evening hours.

...Southern Kansas into Oklahoma and northwest Texas...

Initiation along the dryline appears likely during the 21-00 UTC
period across western OK into northwest TX as a combination of
diurnal heating and increasing synoptic ascent act to erode
inhibition. Elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear
values between 35-45 knots will support initially discrete
supercells capable of large/very large hail and tornadoes (though
uncertainty persists regarding low-level SRH through early evening).
Upscale growth is anticipated at some point during the evening
hours, though there is some uncertainty on when this transition will
occur and the primary threat becomes severe wind. Regardless, an
increase in the nocturnal jet will enlarge low-level hodographs and
maintain the tornado potential into the late evening hours.

...Eastern Kansas and western Missouri...

Latest guidance shows fairly strong consistency in the development
of semi-discrete convection along the lifting warm front across
eastern KS into western MO during the late afternoon/evening hours -
likely owing to weaker capping and focused low/mid-level warm
advection that is noted in most forecast soundings. Veering winds
within the warm frontal zone will support effective SRH values on
the order of 200-300 m2/s2, and surface-based LCLs near or below 1
km will likely support a tornado threat in addition to large/very
large hail. While the potential for robust supercells is noted, the
weak capping and focused ascent may promote thunderstorm clustering
and upscale growth (as hinted by 00z HRRR/RRFS solutions) that could
limit the longevity of these threats; however, the strong signal in
guidance for deep convection within a favorable environment warrants
an expansion of probabilities.

...Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...

Diurnal heating along and focused low-level ascent along the stalled
boundary will likely support isolated to widely scattered convection
by mid-afternoon. While mid-level flow will be somewhat modest
compared to locations further west, sufficient hodograph elongation
should promote at least a few more organized storms capable of
posing a large hail threat. Deep-layer flow along the boundary may
promote clustering during peak heating with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward
from the southern/central Plains into the upper MS Valley. This will
help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low
60s dewpoints) northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions
through the day and into the overnight hours. Residual convection
emanating out of the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours is
forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. Concurrently, a
second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold
front along the MS Valley by late afternoon. Both rounds of
thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and
sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through the day.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...

Latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands
(residual from overnight convection over the Plains) moving out of
central and northern MO during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. As the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will
likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds
and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. Diluted diurnal
heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization
for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours.
Despite very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg), the
combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe
winds and tornadoes. The northern and eastern extent of the
wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be
conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization.

...Mid/Upper MS River Valley...

Air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning
convection across northern MO into IA/western IL with most forecast
guidance depicting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Forcing along the cold front to the south of the
surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should
propagate east/northeast into northern IL by late afternoon and
evening. A combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong
low-level flow (similar 0-1 km SRH values between 250-300 m2/s2 are
expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the
potential for significant tornadoes).

...Mid-South...

A moist and weakly capped environment across the Mid-South/lower OH
Valley will support convection through peak heating. However,
increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of
more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm coverage. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will
support organized convection, including the potential for a
supercell or two through early evening.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)