ACUS01 KWNS 281253
SWODY1
SPC AC 281252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
A cold front will settle slowly southward today across the central
FL Peninsula as large-scale upper troughing persists over the
eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will continue
to advance eastward over FL through the morning and eventually
offshore by this evening. The surface front over the central FL
Peninsula has been reinforced by overnight/early morning convection.
This front, along with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze, should provide
a focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass coupled with
relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -10 to -12C at 500
mb) will likely support weak to moderate instability by mid
afternoon. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain weak and
mostly parallel to the surface front, modestly enhanced mid-level
winds and related deep-layer shear should foster some updraft
organization with thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon.
Both isolated severe hail and occasional damaging winds may occur
with the strongest cores, before convection eventually focuses
offshore by this evening.

...Oklahoma...
Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across
parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough
embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS
may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in
tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too
weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,
although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong
deep-layer shear.

...Northern California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today
across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated
with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s
surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around
500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.
While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,
the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak instability.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/28/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 011232
SWODY1
SPC AC 011230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing occasional large
hail and damaging winds may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.

...South Florida...
Recent water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak/low-amplitude
mid-level shortwave trough over the northeast Gulf. This feature
will track east-southeastward today over the FL Peninsula. Modest
ascent associated with the shortwave trough should aid in isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL in the vicinity of a decaying front, and along the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
develop across this region by peak afternoon heating, with
seasonably cool mid-level temperatures present (around -12 to -13C
at 500 mb). While low-level winds are expected to remain weak, some
enhancement to the west-northwesterly mid-level flow attendant to
the approaching shortwave trough should provide marginal deep-layer
shear to foster modest thunderstorm organization. Consensus of
recent high-resolution guidance suggests that at least isolated
thunderstorms may form by 18-22Z south of the front and along
various sea breezes while posing some threat for severe hail and
occasional damaging winds. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk
for parts of south FL with this update.

...Oklahoma...
With large-scale upper troughing persisting over the eastern CONUS
today, a weak shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from
the central High Plains this morning towards OK by early evening. A
surface cold front is progged to decelerate and eventually stall
along the I-40 corridor in OK, with modest boundary layer moisture
present to its south. A narrow corridor of around 500-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE should develop by late afternoon/early evening along/near the
front, aided by daytime heating and modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding
convective initiation and overall thunderstorm coverage later today
across OK, mainly owing to only weak large-scale ascent attendant to
the low-amplitude shortwave trough and somewhat modest low-level
moisture. Even so, the presence of elongated/nearly straight
hodographs at mid/upper levels and related strong deep-layer shear
suggest some potential for large hail and locally damaging winds if
any robust updrafts can form and be sustained near the front late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A focused Marginal
Risk has been introduced this update where the best chance for isolated/sustained convection is apparent.

...Northern California...
Large-scale ascent will overspread northern CA and vicinity ahead of
an upper low that will approach the CA Coast by this evening.
Gradually cooling mid-level temperatures and filtered diurnal
heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass should support the
development of weak instability across this region through the
afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms should develop, with
the more robust updrafts possibly capable of producing small hail
and gusty winds. This activity is expected to remain below severe
levels owing to the weak instability forecast.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 031250
SWODY1
SPC AC 031248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Ongoing convection across the lower OH Valley this morning is being
aided by low-level warm advection, and is expected to remain
sub-severe as it tracks eastward into a less unstable airmass. A
belt of 45-55 kt mid-level southwesterly flow will be maintained
today across parts of the southern/central Plains as a shortwave
trough ejects eastward over this region though the period. A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening as
low-level moisture streams northward across TX/OK into the Ozarks
and southern IL. A dryline is forecast to mix eastward across the
southern High Plains by late this afternoon, intersecting the
surface front in the northwest TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to be
suppressed across the southern/central Plains through much of the
afternoon into early evening owing to the presence of a stout
low-level inversion. One exception may be near the front/dryline
intersection in southwest to central OK, where MLCIN should become
minimal by peak afternoon heating. Here, some guidance suggests a
low chance for a robust thunderstorm or two to develop and track
northeastward along/near the I-44 corridor while posing an isolated
hail threat. The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly southward
to account for this possibility. Otherwise, gradually increasing
large-scale ascent preceding the shortwave trough and strengthening
low-level warm/moist advection should encourage the development of
elevated thunderstorms north of the front, mainly after 04/06Z.
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 03/03/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS01 KWNS 072039
SWODY1
SPC AC 072037

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TEXAS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR LINE PLACEMENT ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Main edits
with this update were to remove probabilities behind the main lines
of storms across the Northeast and from the Mid-South into the
Southern Plains.

Across the Northeast, a broken line of storms continues
northeastward, with a few leading line supercell structures ongoing.
The environment ahead of this line continues to destabilize with
daytime heating in combination with continued strong flow aloft
promoting an uptick in storm organization. See MCD#167 for more
information.

From the Ohio Valley to Mid-South the Gulf States and into the far
eastern Southern Plains, a line of storms continues southeastward
this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of
this line within the warm sector. The environment ahead of this line
is very moist and unstable. Further south, there is some
displacement from the strongest winds aloft, though deep layer shear
remains favorable. See MCD#168 for more information.

See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/

...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.

As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.

...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.

Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 081238
SWODY1
SPC AC 081236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern
Texas.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave
trough from southern Quebec southwestward through the Lower MO
Valley. Another shortwave trough extends from far northwestern
Ontario into western Upper MI. Both of these waves are forecast to
remain progressive today, with the lead wave continuing quickly
northeastward and moving off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by this evening.

At the surface, an extensive cold front currently extends from
northern NY southwestward into deep south TX. Several lows exist
along this front, including one over the NY Hudson Valley and
another over central MS. Northern and central portions of this front
are expected to progress eastward/southeastward today, in tandem
with the lead wave as it progresses northeastward.

Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the vicinity of
this front over southwest/south-central LA and the Upper TX Coast,
as well as behind the front across south-central TX. The cold front
will become increasingly diffuse across these areas today, but
thunderstorms could still linger near this boundary into the early
evening. Strong mid to upper level flow suggests a few isolated
strong to severe storms are possible, but overall severe storm
coverage will likely be tempered by poor low-level lapse rates and
weak low to mid-level flow.

...Carolinas into Southeast Virginia...
Recent surface observations place low 60s dewpoints into southeast
VA, but the mid 60s dewpoints are still confined to the Carolina
coast. Additional moistening is anticipated across the region this
morning ahead of the approaching cold front, with the 60s dewpoints
spreading farther north and west. However, the higher dewpoints will
likely only reach slightly farther inland, perhaps reaching the
central Carolinas. Amid this low-level moisture, temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 70s/low 80s, supporting modest
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) during the afternoon.
Potential for greater buoyancy will be mitigated by poor mid-level
lapse rates. Even so, the combination of modest buoyancy, moderate
shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold front could result in
a few stronger, more organized storms. Given the steep low-level
lapse rates, locally strong outflow is possible within any more
organized and persistent updrafts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 111242
SWODY1
SPC AC 111241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from
the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
Split-flow upper pattern persists across the CONUS this morning,
with an upper low moving through TX in the southern stream and a
shortwave trough moving through the northern and central Plains
within the northern stream. Both of these systems are forecast to
progress quickly eastward amid modest phasing and trend towards a
more confluent, single-stream pattern by early tomorrow morning.

Currently a broad region of moderate to strong low/mid-level flow
extends from TX northeastward into eastern Ontario/southern Quebec.
The strongest low-level flow with this broad region is over the
Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, where 850 mb flow is around 50 to 60 kt. Thunderstorms are currently clustered over two areas within this
broader region, IL and OH, and farther south from east TX into the
Arklatex. The greatest severe thunderstorm potential is expected to
concentrate downstream of the areas today, with damaging gusts as
the primary severe hazards.

...Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic...
Regional radar imagery shows a convective line extending from
west-central IN southwestward into southern IL. This line is
progressing quickly east-northeastward and has produced several
strong gusts (i.e. 40-45 kt) thus far. Regional radar imagery also
depicts a MCV moving into southern IL. Mesoscale ascent attendant to
this MCV could be aiding in the development of the convective line
as well as the more cellular storms to its south. General
expectation is for this convective line to continue quickly
northeastward across the Ohio Valley, with the robust low-level flow
support in the potential strong to severe gusts as well as a few
line-embedded tornadoes. This activity will spread east toward the
Middle Atlantic by late afternoon.

This ongoing line is well ahead of a shortwave trough moving through
the northern/central Plains, and strong low-level moisture advection
will likely result in airmass recovery in its wake ahead of the
shortwave. As a result, a second round of thunderstorms is
anticipated as the shortwave and its associated cold front moves
through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Despite
airmass recovery, the overall buoyancy will likely be tempered by
widespread clouds and muted diurnal heating. Even so, the
combination of modest buoyancy with robust shear will still support
another round of strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong gusts are
the primary risk, but line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well.
Any mature discrete development ahead of the front would likely be supercellular and capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes.

...East Texas through the Southeast...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing within a
broad area of precipitation from east TX into southern AR, supported
by modest buoyancy and strong vertical shear downstream of a
shortwave moving through west TX. As mentioned in recently issued
MCD 211, some weakening and veering of low-level flow has been noted
in regional VWPs, but deep-layer shear remains favorable, and
seasonably rich low-level moisture will continue to support moderate
buoyancy. The severe threat may tend to remain rather isolated in
the short term, though the strongest cells/clusters will be capable
of producing locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado.

A more substantial increase in the coverage of the severe threat is
expected later this afternoon, in response to increased ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. This additional
development will likely begin in a more cellular mode over east TX
before progressing eastward and becoming more linear with time. All
hazards are possible with this more cellular activity, including
tornadoes. Southwesterly flow aloft should strengthen ahead of the
shortwave throughout the evening and overnight, leading to increased organization and strength of the convective line. As such, the
threat for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will persist
throughout the night across the Gulf Coast states.

..Mosier/Dean.. 03/11/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 181149
SWODY1
SPC AC 181148

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across far south Florida.

...Synopsis...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a prominent mid-level ridge over
the southwestern states, with fast northwest flow aloft over much of
the rest of the CONUS. This pattern will prevent the return of Gulf
moisture, and preclude organized thunderstorms over most areas.

The one exception will be over south FL, in vicinity of a stalled
boundary. While an isolated lightning strike or two will be
possible over land, much of the thunderstorm risk will affect
offshore waters. No severe storms are anticipated.

..Hart/Weinman.. 03/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 201232
SWODY1
SPC AC 201230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley, mainly late this afternoon into the evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians...

A prominent mid/upper-level high will remain centered over AZ and
northwest Mexico today, with upper troughing over FL and the western
Atlantic forecast to continue moving eastward. In between these
features, a low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to
advance southeastward from Ontario and the Great Lakes to the upper
OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Strong northwesterly mid/upper-level flow associated with this feature will support 40-50
kt of deep-layer shear and the conditional potential for updraft
organization with any thunderstorms that can develop. However,
low-level moisture will likely remain quite limited across the upper
OH Valley, with surface dewpoints currently in the 30s only modestly
increasing by late afternoon into the mid 40s to perhaps low 50s as
modest low-level warm/moist advection of a partially modified Gulf
airmass spreads northeastward from the lower/mid MS Valley.

Even with continued concerns about the modest thermodynamic
environment (MUCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg), there still
appears to be some chance for strong thunderstorm development late
this afternoon into the evening across parts of the upper OH Valley
into the central Appalachians along/ahead of a surface cold front.
Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cells
that can develop and be sustained, although confidence in the
overall coverage of strong to severe convection remains low. The
loss of daytime heating and even more limited low-level moisture
with eastward extent into the central Appalachians should
spatially/temporally confine the already marginal severe threat.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/20/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 211231
SWODY1
SPC AC 211230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening across
parts of the southern Appalachians/Southeast.

...Southern Appalachians/Southeast...

With upper ridging persisting over the Southwest and northern Mexico
today, a subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward
from the mid MS Valley/Mid-South this morning towards the southern
Appalachians vicinity by this evening. At the surface, a weak front
draped generally east-west across the OH Valley should lift
northward as a warm front through the afternoon, with modest
low-level moisture advancing northward across parts of the lower MS
Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast.

Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough should
remain rather weak, but daytime heating and orographic circulations
over the southern Appalachians may aid isolated thunderstorm
development by mid to late afternoon (around 20-22Z). Most guidance,
with the exception of the NAM, suggests that boundary-layer moisture
will remain quite limited this afternoon, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 40s to low 50s. Even so, weak instability/steepened
low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging
downdraft winds with any thunderstorms that can develop from eastern
TN into parts of the Carolinas. Around 25-30 kt of effective bulk
shear may also aid modest updraft organization and marginally severe
hail with the strongest cores. The isolated severe threat should
wane through the evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/21/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 231223
SWODY1
SPC AC 231222

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to
the coastal Carolinas. Locally strong thunderstorms may occur across
parts of coastal/eastern North Carolina this afternoon, but greater
severe potential should tend to remain offshore.

...Coastal/Eastern North Carolina...

Mid/upper-level troughing will progress eastward today across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The southern portion of this trough and
related modest large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the
coastal Southeast states by this afternoon. Isolated convection
appears possible along/south of an advancing cold front from
southeast GA to the coastal Carolinas. A stronger thunderstorm or
two may occur across coastal/eastern NC around 19-22Z, as somewhat
greater instability, low-level convergence along the front, and
modest ascent ahead of the upper trough should exist across this
area. While 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support
organized updrafts, current indications are that more robust
thunderstorm development should tend to remain just offshore the NC
Coast. Have therefore refrained from including low hail/wind
probabilities across this area, but trends will be monitored.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/23/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 241202
SWODY1
SPC AC 241200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of
north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal
Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...

Surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the eastern CONUS
today, with low-level moisture sufficient to support thunderstorms
confined to parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a front.
Large-scale ascent will remain weak across this region through the
afternoon, with multiple small-scale perturbations embedded within
mean upper troughing across the eastern states remaining displaced
to the north of FL. Even so, isolated thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon across parts of north/central FL, with some preference for
initiation along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Weak low/mid-level
flow and related modest deep-layer shear are expected to limit the
threat for organized severe convection. Isolated thunderstorms may
also occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of
coastal WA as strong forcing and cool temperatures aloft associated
with a mid/upper-level jet overspread this region.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 281225
SWODY1
SPC AC 281223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface analysis shows an extensive area of high
pressure covering much of the central and eastern CONUS, the only
exception being across eastern MT where a weak lee low is in place.
Another weak low exists over southern NV, along an inverted trough
that extends from the central Gulf of California into central NV.

A weak frontal boundary separates the dry and stable continental
airmass associated with the high pressure from the more moist,
tropical airmass over the Gulf and central/southern FL Peninsula.
Strong heating and modest buoyancy will support showers and
thunderstorms along and south of this boundary during the afternoon
and evening, fostered by both convergence along the front and a westward-progressing sea breeze. Limited buoyancy and weak shear
should preclude storm organization, keeping the severe risk
isolated. Even so, relatively high LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support strong downbursts. Thunderstorms are not
expected elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/28/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 291228
SWODY1
SPC AC 291226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south Florida.

...Synopsis...
Surface ridging currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic and
covering much of the eastern CONUS is forecast to shift
northeastward into the western Atlantic today as mid-level flow
trends more westerly and surface pressure lowers over the Plains.
Strengthening pressure gradient between the Plains troughing and the
western Atlantic ridge will support moderate southerly low-level
flow and modest moisture advection across the central and southern
Plains. By early tomorrow (Monday), mid 50s dewpoints will likely
extend from south-central OK into the Mid-South, with 60s dewpoints
extending from central TX through the Lower MS Valley.

Despite this increasing low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft
and negligible large-scale ascent will preclude thunderstorm
development. Only thunderstorm chances across the CONUS today will
be across central/southern AZ, south FL, and a small part the
southeast LA Coast. Across south FL a weakening front and associated
low-level convergence will combine with warm and moist conditions to
support isolated thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms are also
possible over the southeast LA coast in the confluent low-level
southeasterly flow rounding the base of the surface ridging.

Predominantly dry thunderstorms are anticipated across
central/southern AZ where strong heating and deep mixing will occur
beneath modest mid-level moisture emanating from the eastern
Pacific. Given the high LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates, strong
downbursts are possible. However, limited updraft strength and
persistence should temper the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/29/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 311237
SWODY1
SPC AC 311236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is forecast to trend away from its previously more
zonal configuration towards more amplification today as the general
pattern begins to become more active. Several shortwave troughs are
expected across the CONUS today, combining with an expansive warm
sector to support an extensive stretch of strong to severe
thunderstorms from the southern High Plains into the Northeast.
Thunderstorms are also possible within the moist and confluent flow
from the Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and the
anonymously moist airmass across the Southwest. Additionally,
thunderstorms are possible during the second half of the period from
northern CA through the Great Basin as shortwave trough moves
quickly eastward across the region overnight.

...Mid/Upper MS Valley across the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley
into the Northeast...

Recent surface analysis places a low near the IA/WI border vicinity,
with perhaps another weak low farther southwest across southwest IA.
A warm front extends eastward from the IA/WI border surface low
across southern WI and southern Lower MI. Showers and thunderstorms
occurred overnight along and north of this boundary, with the
primary remnants currently over southwestern ON towards western NY.
Additional thunderstorm development is beginning to the northwest of
the IA/WI border surface low as well as farther south within the
warm sector across northern IL. This activity is likely supported by
a combination of persistent warm-air advection and ascent linked to
a subtle shortwave trough moving through IA. Most guidance suggests
this activity, particularly the IL cluster, increases in coverage
and intensity over the next several hours as it continues eastward
across Lower MI and eventually into western PA/western NY. Some
intensification of the convective remnants moving across southwest
ON is possible as well. Robust deep-layer westerly flow amid at
least modest buoyancy will support damaging gusts as the primary
severe risk with these clusters. There is also enough low-level
curvature to support a low-probability tornado risk, particularly
along the southwest flanks of the IL and ON clusters where a more
cell-in-line convective mode is possible. A line-embedded
circulation could also occur if these clusters can become more organized.

How these clusters evolve, in particular the strength of any
outflow, will dictate the extent of airmass recovery in their wake.
This is particularly true across the OH Valley where much of the
guidance suggests another round of thunderstorms is possible along a
cold front forecast to move across the region this evening. Current
expectation is that the airmass will support strong to severe
thunderstorms, especially from central IN into central IL where the
influence of antecedent convection should be minimal. Steep lapse
rates and moderate shear will support a hail risk with the initially
more cellular development along the front. A trend towards a more
linear mode is anticipated thereafter, with undercutting by the cold
front likely as well.

Lastly, elevated thunderstorms are expected overnight from northern
MO into southern IA and central IL amid steep lapse rates and a
strengthening low-level jet. Marginally severe hail is possible with
this activity as well.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest KS, with a
dryline extending southwestward from this low through southeast NM
into Far West TX. This low is forecast to shift southeastward along
the leading edge of a cold front pushing southward into the TX
Panhandle and western OK, with its associated dryline gradually
shifting eastward. Increasing low-level moisture and strong heating
will help destabilize the airmass ahead of the front and surface
low. Low-level convergence along the front/dryline, and particularly
near the surface low, will support convective initiation. Vertical
shear will be sufficient for storm organization and a few supercells
are possible. Steep lapse rates and strong shear in the
cloud-bearing layer suggest large hail is possible early in the
convective cycle, while high LCLs suggest a trend toward strong
downbursts thereafter.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)