ACUS11 KWNS 262153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262153=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Minnesota into central
and southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 463...

Valid 262153Z - 270000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 463 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and tornadoes should
persist over the next few hours. This severe threat may accompany
storms within an east-ward-progressing QLCS, or with storms that
develop ahead of the QLCS and interact favorably with a
quasi-stationary front. A downstream Tornado Watch issuance may be
needed if confidence increases in more robust, downstream storms
materializing.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS continued to track eastward
across far eastern MN into WI, and is traversing a quasi-stationary
front. Along this front, rich low-level moisture and steep low-level
lapse rates are contributing to 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Along with
this appreciable instability is 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear
that is overspreading the boundary. Furthermore, regional VADs show
hodographs with modest curvature and 200-300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. As
such, ambient conditions along this boundary are favorable for the
development of severe gusts and tornadoes.

At the moment, the tornado threat could increase in southern WI
under two scenarios. First is with QLCS segments that traverse the
boundary, optimizing the ingestion of locally higher streamwise
vorticity. The second scenario involves the maturation of
free-warm-sector thunderstorms into supercells that can produce
tornadoes while crossing the boundary and briefly ingesting
cross-wise vorticity. Convective trends are currently being
monitored for further storm intensification under either scenario
and the subsequent need for a Tornado Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6hEzt5GVnCX0zcs1W2pnEQkp2wYKT3lHciybCp_YZ-5rwR01s7IJrLL7VIucBPWc8SaYq5PsU= _OSmNTj5bi065shR7s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 44469159 44299007 43738863 43198775 42608831 42578921
42588987 42659035 42799079 42959111 43159131 43309155
43389165 44469159=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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