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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1454

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 26 17:37:11 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 261737
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261736=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-261930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1454
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

    Areas affected...Extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into northwest MO
    and southwest into central/northeast IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 261736Z - 261930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will
    increase with time this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A cold front is moving east across parts of eastern NE
    and northeast KS this afternoon, as a surface low moves from
    southeast SD into southern MN. While cloudiness has limited heating
    to some extent, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of
    2000-3000 J/kg along/ahead of the front. Storms are already
    developing near a differential heating zone across central IA, with
    other development possible later this afternoon in closer proximity
    to the front.=20

    Both low-level and deep-layer shear increase with northward extent
    across the MCD area. Some threat for supercells with a threat for
    locally damaging wind and a tornado may develop into parts of
    central/northeast IA (see MCD 1452 for more information). Farther
    south, despite weaker shear, a broken line of storms with a threat
    of damaging wind may eventually develop along/ahead of the front
    from extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into southwest/south-central
    IA and northwest MO. Watch issuance is likely in order to address
    these threats.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4lgNdgFQ5-_YoBu6sHkVv6mH34bgCpGPlVt1HyldP_rrrP08vpCMMXcSAb4kO8kV6viRySnUX= BCQeVJPwzd6uVOudlk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 41129582 42199475 42789269 42849192 42779176 42189177
    41519249 41139284 40719325 40239384 39859460 39909560
    40439599 41129582=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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