ACUS11 KWNS 261648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261648=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-261845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...southern Appalachians into northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261648Z - 261845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some
instances of severe hail possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing this morning across
portions of eastern Tennessee and western South Carolina, with
occasional severe pulses. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s
to 90s across the Carolinas into Georgia and eastern Tennessee, with
dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. Continued heating under sunny
skies (outside of the areas with convection) should yield further destabilization and MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg by the afternoon.
Morning 12z sounding analysis indicates cool mid-levels, with modest
mid-level lapse rates. Though flow aloft is weak, moderate
instability and steepening low-level lapse with heating will allow
for potential for wet downbursts and damaging outflow winds. A few
isolated instances of severe hail will also be possible, owing to
steep lapse rates. This area will be monitored for watch potential
through the afternoon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_TJhrygcUtnzpSUJ85Jj7RnIeKKX2N2gmYEIJTfOj4p-ywbBTmuu9cBjQ19Tz3X1bf9xiYsBu= rWiP73JnYy3nahWPZ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...
BMX...

LAT...LON 33658324 33348429 33308482 33518519 33818538 34228526
34838478 36218303 36878212 37368145 37758054 38077982
38177941 38177877 38017842 37827816 37577801 37377792
37037815 36757885 36417954 36178008 36028034 35498090
34778186 34208257 33658324=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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