• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1450

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 26 03:46:46 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 260345
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260344=20
    GAZ000-260545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1450
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1044 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

    Areas affected...Central Georgia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462...

    Valid 260344Z - 260545Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Outflow boundaries pushing into an unstable environment
    will promote an increase in thunderstorm coverage over the next few
    hours. Transient, but strong thunderstorms will support damaging
    downburst winds and isolated large hail.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage continues to slowly increase
    across central GA as two outflow boundaries - one associated with an
    MCS moving across eastern GA, and another pushing north out of a
    convective cluster originating in the FL Panhandle/southwest GA -
    continue to push into a very unstable air mass. Based on the 00 UTC
    FFC sounding, mid-level lapse rates on the order of 7.5 C/km reside
    over the region, and little in the way of convective overturning has
    occurred thus far. Based on surface observations, nocturnal cooling
    has resulted in a relatively shallow stable layer near the surface,
    but the depth/intensity of the outflows will continue to be
    sufficient to lift surface-based parcels to their LFCs. As such,
    additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across central
    GA. Weak deep layer shear is promoting transient cells/clusters with
    the potential for damaging downbursts and perhaps sporadic large
    hail. The severe threat will be locally maximized where the two
    outflow boundaries converge, which based on recent storm tracks,
    will likely occur in the vicinity of the I-75 corridor in the coming
    hours.

    ..Moore.. 06/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9cY_dbfMS5ejKGOmKBY1xTJw9srZdo8zOBYHtkrALy0ron3sLHt7vGDQ2BfVL28rwWeO-0SwK= 3ikidgxrjEfilfiwY4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...

    LAT...LON 32608375 32558413 32808484 33088516 33428517 33818505
    34078489 34228464 34228416 33918371 33618345 33218328
    33088324 32898333 32828351 32608375=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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