ACUS11 KWNS 260122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260121=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-260315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Southern to southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

Valid 260121Z - 260315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
continues.

SUMMARY...A loosely organized MCS will migrate southeast into
southeast and southern Georgia through the evening hours. Downstream
watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...An outflow-dominant MCS continues to push
south/southeast across southern SC. Although most measured wind
gusts have been in the 40-55 mph range, a few severe gusts have been
noted along with multiple reports of wind damage. Additionally, new
convective cores continue to develop immediately behind the outflow
boundary and are supporting swaths of stronger winds within the
line. Downstream of the MCS, surface temperatures are falling with
the onset of nocturnal cooling, but rich low-level moisture
(dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will likely modulate the influence
of low-level stabilization to some degree. Additionally, a reservoir
of around 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE remains downstream across southern
GA that has been relatively untouched by afternoon convection. The
expectation is that the MCS will likely continue to propagate
southwestward into this reservoir along a weak confluence axis
and/or along a sea-breeze boundary moving inland from the coast.
Damaging gusts with a few severe wind swaths will remain the primary
hazard. Some uncertainty regarding the longevity of this threat
remains given the surging outflow and increasing MLCIN heading later
into the overnight hours, but downstream watch issuance is likely if
the MCS can maintain intensity over the next hour or so as it nears
the edge of WW 459.

..Moore.. 06/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9l9G7vtLXFuqUZJMBJoDaKSKqCJ5XtVmjrjZu9zNfT65HoZNB7x3bGuDblzGTBteHlhEBnV_4= Pk8I20Y1_H_P2Nsc7g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30778378 30878394 31108409 31398419 31788410 32308383
32788353 33128317 33228290 33198274 32448116 32218102
31908098 31598129 30718290 30688319 30738368 30778378=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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