1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1446

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 25 23:40:35 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 252339
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252338=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-260115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1446
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0638 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southwestern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 461...

    Valid 252338Z - 260115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 461 continues.

    SUMMARY...A couple of additional tornadoes are possible with
    supercells along a warm front over southwestern WI over the next few
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells with a history of tornadoes
    continues to traverse a warm front, along the MN/WI border. Surface temperatures/dewpoints in the upper 80s/mid 70s F is contributing to
    1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE on the immediate side of the warm front.
    Latest KARX NEXRAD data shows that the ongoing supercells may be
    crossing to the immediate cool side of the front. Furthermore, the
    warm front becomes more south-southeasterly with eastward extent,
    suggesting that storms moving east to east-northeast will have more
    of a crosswise component of vorticity to ingest, which may lessen
    tornado potential to a degree. Nonetheless, Regional VADs across
    southern WI continue to show strong low-level shear via
    sizeable/curved low-level hodographs. As such, a couple of
    additional tornadoes remain possible with any storms that manage to
    anchor along the warm front over the next few hours.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Q-fUHkta2RqwJfnvFV6xGstM_cx_gnI1RexnlbsCXb2a6yy0TjXGvqA4A6DksJEMZQa1em97= UQmAva48bTN-9bzleA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 44079186 44209129 43719010 43359002 43219034 43339090
    43459174 44079186=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)