ACUS11 KWNS 252122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252121=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-252245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0421 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming
and western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252121Z - 252245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail or wind may accompany the
stronger multicell or supercell structures over the next several
hours. However, the overall severe threat should remain isolated.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and supercells have developed and
intensified over the last few hours given the combination of
low-level upslope flow and diurnal heating. Surface temperatures are
in the 70s F amid 50 F surface dewpoints over the higher terrain, to
low 60s F dewpoints farther to the east into western SD. This
moisture, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yields
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40 kts of effective bulk shear.
Hodographs, evident via 21Z mesoanalysis, are mainly straight and
elongated, suggesting that multicells and splitting supercells
should remain the primary modes of convection. Severe wind and hail
will be the main convective hazards, though the overall modest
buoyancy/shear parameter space and forcing for ascent suggests that
the severe threat should be isolated.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5XCJN-pjZvbJhRrV1yRMIIn2pG5KrwkvqKzXXXacozAThXjKEJf9OrgEqLIaChEPhQDV88WGc= m9Us7e57JAP9Tk77Hc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 44030610 45990647 47710687 48200624 48120518 47040296
45370156 43960083 43460091 43160154 43020229 43160350
43550467 44030610=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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