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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1439

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 25 20:41:18 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 252041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252040=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-252215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1439
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of the Carolinas into northeast GA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459...

    Valid 252040Z - 252215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat may gradually increase into the
    early evening. Isolated hail also remains possible.

    DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing late this afternoon
    across parts of eastern NC, with additional storms in western NC,
    and developing cumulus into parts of SC and east-central/northeast
    GA. Additional storm development is possible into early evening,
    within a very unstable (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) environment.
    Generally weak deep-layer shear continue to hamper storm
    organization, but the strong instability and steep midlevel lapse
    rates will continue to support vigorous updrafts.=20

    Outflow is gradually expanding across eastern NC, and there may be
    some tendency for a loosely organized storm cluster to propagate south/southwestward with time, as outflow impinges upon a hot and
    very moist environment. A similar evolution could take place with
    ongoing storms across western NC. This could lead to more
    concentrated areas of damaging wind with time. The strongest
    updrafts will also continue to be capable of producing isolated
    hail.

    ..Dean.. 06/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9c2GVWrvvSJ-ugtPQXG08wPSaB8zWpKpz85eoNr7BLjm9PrMPVhz7BpcXHf_kQ9vV5HbKZnK7= 78whf8QrcrzxTJRAmo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

    LAT...LON 35358427 35948145 36087886 36137804 35937759 35077750
    34197771 33817794 33898083 33338212 33008263 33528330
    34298412 34368414 34558434 35358427=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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