ACUS11 KWNS 251958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251958=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-252200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...FL Panhandle into south GA and far southeast AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251958Z - 252200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible through late
afternoon, with a continued threat of damaging wind and isolated
hail.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms are ongoing this afternoon
across the FL Panhandle into southwest GA, with additional cumulus
development noted northeast of the ongoing convection. Relatively
steep lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft are supporting strong
to extreme buoyancy, with MLCAPE generally in the 3000-4000 J/kg
range. Deep-layer flow is rather weak, though modest midlevel
northeasterlies on the periphery of an upper ridge will support
20-25 kt of effective shear through the afternoon, which may support
modest storm organization given the very favorable instability.=20

Potential will continue this afternoon for southwestward moving
clusters capable of damaging downburst/outflow winds and isolated
hail. There is some potential for loosely organized outflow-driven
clusters to develop, which could produce more concentrated areas of
wind damage, though this scenario remains somewhat uncertain.=20

Uncertainty regarding severe coverage renders the need for
short-term watch issuance uncertain, but trends will be monitored
for an uptick in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_k-Afz6p32bewJCPsa3CmI-8pSoTRyFO21uO0Wj_FOPexITG7hrlAKI82B9hnf1WeYzm97s_S= lbXsQIHnuXoxsBR9t8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 29878720 30428793 30908775 31128592 32148375 32428340
32468255 32198184 31728186 30668233 29908284 29638352
29548436 29498563 29878720=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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