ACUS11 KWNS 251551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251550 COR
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-251745-
Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Areas affected...Parts of western NC/upstate SC into far northeast
GA and extreme eastern TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 251550Z - 251745Z
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADLINE
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging downburst/outflow winds and isolated hail are
possible into this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Morning soundings depict a rather volatile
thermodynamic environment across parts of the Southeast this
morning. A remnant EML and seasonably cold midlevel temperatures
atop 70s F dewpoints are already supporting MLCAPE of 3000-4000
J/kg. Temperatures will warm through the 90s F this afternoon,
resulting in very steep low-level lapse rates.=20
Low-level flow will generally remain weak, but modest northeasterly
midlevel flow between a weakening upper ridge and an upper low near
south FL could support weakly organized storms. However, even
relatively disorganized storms in this regime will be capable of
producing damaging/potentially severe downbursts and isolated hail,
given the very favorable thermodynamic environment.=20
Storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain into mid afternoon. The
highest confidence is short-term development is across the higher
terrain over western NC and vicinity, where isolated initiation is
underway. The need for short-term watch issuance is uncertain, but
will become increasingly possible with time, especially across
south/east portions of the MCD area.
..Dean/Hart.. 06/25/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_tzmqLyB_bjlS-wRxOU4sfhcc91e3wz6rOqzNqglsWKyaemTuZ1QWDokpHzJHVC2n3pcwXuv_= _IOMUGvL7scGxuC5k8$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 35248440 36028330 36518194 36358126 36008117 35668122
35278163 35098201 34718260 34498321 34568355 34658408
35248440=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)