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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1431

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 24 23:45:35 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 242344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242343=20
    WYZ000-250145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1431
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0643 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242343Z - 250145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible this evening. Hail, wind,
    and perhaps a brief tornado are the main threats. Storm coverage
    should be too sparse to warrant a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery suggests a very weak disturbance may
    be ejecting northeast across eastern ID/northwestern WY. Some
    flattening of the height field is expected across northern WY over
    the next few hours. Southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the
    Plains has forced moisture deep into central WY, and up against the
    Big Horn Mountains. While surface-based parcels are likely capped
    east of the higher terrain, one lone supercell has developed over
    Natrona County, while deepening cu field is noted over eastern
    Fremont County. Severe hail is likely noted with the Natrona storm,
    and is possible with any supercells this evening. There is some
    concern the southern influence of the aforementioned short wave may
    encourage another storm or two to form along the southern portions
    of the Big Horns over the next few hours. If so, this activity would
    spread into portions of northeast WY where shear profiles favor
    supercells, but the boundary layer is a bit cooler. At this time it
    appears activity may prove too sparse to warrant a watch.

    ..Darrow/Smith.. 06/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9o7SgJPH9oCaAaNfHAZK6r-RIvA3OJrei0BTmB1R5t7qY8I2xqF-MHjKOvy-yfVzq3u2Pemzk= ZnElymIPi7NbfEW9tk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43240705 44220591 43310502 42750628 43240705=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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