ACUS11 KWNS 242205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242205=20
NEZ000-COZ000-250000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado and adjacent portions of
southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458...

Valid 242205Z - 250000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe wind/hail threat will persist across northeast
Colorado into adjacent portions of far southwest Nebraska downstream
of a persistent, organized cluster. Downstream watch issuance is
possible if this cluster maintains intensity as it exits WW 458.

DISCUSSION...An organized cluster with a history of producing severe
winds continues to push to the northeast across northeastern CO.
Reflectivity and velocity imagery from KTFG shows new updraft
development along the leading edge of the outflow even as the
cluster migrates into a somewhat cool/more stable air mass where
temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s. Recent forecast
soundings suggest that the downstream thermodynamic conditions will
continue to support surface-based parcels with only modest
inhibition (-25 to -50 J/kg), but weak warm air advection across the
CO/KS/NE tri-state region will support some degree of additional destabilization immediately ahead of the cluster. This should help
maintain storm intensity as it continues to the northeast at least
for the next couple of hours. Severe winds, most likely between
55-70 mph, will remain the predominant hazard. Sporadic large hail
appears possible given the intense updrafts, noted in GOES IR
imagery, and sufficient deep-layer wind shear that will support this
threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch
issuance downstream into southwest NE may be needed if the cluster
maintains intensity as it exits WW 458..

..Moore.. 06/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-v-IYOv1DlKKOyLKscCrOirKUKjqALnvL1dqAS0x792G73Vy1RHw_OQjAxDMdSBYOpH5tsnxG= CytClemRl2ezRb61R8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39840380 40040390 40260406 40410425 40590430 41260350
41500299 41570274 41570246 41460212 41260187 41070175
40850172 40620173 40410190 40300211 39730362 39840380=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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